August 3rd, 2026   1492 Columbus departs Palos de la Frontera, heading west  

Politics - IED in Moscow Restaurant, LtGen targeted, not killed

- Polish government summons Russian Ambassador 

Combat Ops - Ground grind continues, modest Russian gains

- Drone and missile strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

89 and sunny. Mostly sunny through next week. Daily lows near 70, daily highs around 90 80. Winds north-easterly, 5kts.

Melitopol

92 and sunny. Partly cloudy tomorrow, mostly sunny through the rest of the week. Daily lows around 70, daily highs in the low 90s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

84 and mostly cloudy, wind gusting to 20. Sunny or mostly sunny through next week. Daily lows in the mid 60s, daily highs near 90. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

Peaceful demonstrations continued through the weekend in support of Former MinDef Fedorov.

President Zelenskyy commented that Ukraine seeks to force Russia to end the war before winter.

An IED detonated in a restaurant - the Balzi Rossi - near the Kudrinskaya Square Building on Saturday, killing five and wounding 19. A young woman was later identified as the bomber. The guard who stopped the woman, and three others were also killed.

The restaurant’s web site had stated that the site was closed for a private function, but did not identify who would be in attendance. Speculation is that the incident was an assassination attempt against Col. Gen. Chayko, commander-in-chief of Aerospace Forces.

On Friday the Polish Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian Ambassador in response to the Kh-101 cruise missile that entered Polish airspace on the 30th.

The missile impacted in an open field some 50 miles or so inside Poland. There were no casualties and no damage to any buildings.

President Zelenskyy has appointed:

• Rustem Umierov - head the Foreign Intelligence Service
• Ihor Klymenko - secretary of the National Security and Defence Council 
• Oleh Luhovskyi, the first deputy head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, as acting chief of Foreign Intelligence Service
• Oleh Ivashchenko - Chief of Defense Intelligence (currently head of the Foreign Intelligence Service)
• 
  

Ground Operations

Reporting of fighting on the ground shows very little movement, amid multiple reports of small gains by each side. Each side has noted that the fighting is “hard” and “difficult,” but that is difficult to quantify.

Russian recon probes and infiltration efforts continue up and down the line, and Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack when possible, but all of these are, by all accounts, small elements, rarely more than two squads in size. As noted last week, attacks that approach a full platoon in size are rare, enough that they warrant being singled out. There have been no such reports over the weekend. 

Russian infiltration efforts at several points are being supported by - per Ukrainian army sources - increased use of glide bombs, mainly 250 and 500 KG (550 and 1100 lb) glide bombs with the Russian equivalent of JDAM-ER - INS / GPD guidance and glide wings. This has been particularly noted in the fortress cities of Donetsk: Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Kostiantinivka, and Druzhivka, as well as use in and around Zaporizhzhia. The Russian glide bombs have struck targets at ranges of 90 miles from the drop aircraft. 

Imagery also confirmed Ukrainian gains just outside Novoandrivka (3.5 miles west-south-west of Orikhiv)

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

President Zelensky posted that Russian long range strikes from July 26th through August 2nd included: 1,900 strike drones, 144 missiles, and almost 1,600 glide bombs.

The Belgorod reservoir, just south of Belgorod City, appears to be nearly empty. The dam was struck by a drone and HIMARS rockets for the first time on October 25th, last year and has been hit several times since, most recently mid July. The reservoir, formed from the Donets River, was a major source of water for the city of Belgorod. The reservoir held 2.7 billion cubic feet of water, or 20 billion gallons. 

A Ukrainian Navy spokesman commented on the 31st that Russian forces conducted 56 strikes during July, targeting ships and port facilities, damaged “more than 20 ships,” in port or in approaches to Ukrainian ports, and that these strikes have slowed cargo movement through the ports, and resulted in the deaths of 26 sailors or dockyard workers.

Russian drone operators continue to expand the operational envelope as more jet powered drones are added to the inventory. Key to this is higher speeds and flying drones up to 10,000 feet AGL.

This “medium altitude” sanctuary denies anti-aircraft artillery, particularly small caliber weapons, from reaching drones.

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian forces continue to hit Russian oil facilities and various logistics centers, as well as striking a wide range of facilities in Crimea. 

During the night of July 30th-July 31st Ukrainian sources Lukoil refinery in in Volgograd as well as the Port Facility in Tamen.

During the night of July 31st- August 1st Ukrainain forces struck the three refineries in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan.

In each of the cases above imagery confirmed fires at the facilities but the extent of the damage haas not been independently confirmed.

During the night of Augustus 1st- August 2nd Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Saratov, and this fire, too has been confirmed in imagery. Ukrainian forces also restrict the oil complex in Omsk. Extent of the damage has not been confirmed.

Russian government sources noted that they had shot down 635 Ukrainian drones; no numbers were given on total number of drones. 

Ukrainian drones also struck Engels Airfield during the night, causing a fire, but there were no reports of damage to any aircraft of Russian Air Force facilities.

Ukrainain drone and missile strikes during the night of July 29th-July 30th, confirmed by open source imagery, set fire to port facilities in Taman, Krasnodar Krai, on the Kerch Strait.

The Financial Times commented that its own independent analysis of Russian oil faculties suggests Ukrainian strikes have “disabled” 30% of Russian capacity.

Reuters reported that the Ryazan refinery complex had “shut down” on Wednesday after strikes over the weekend.

Ukrainian Forces claims they have now hit 205 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov and eastern Black Sea since July 6th.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 2nd-August 3rd Russian forces launched at least 181 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 163 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. 

Civilian casualties include at least  4 killed and 33 wounded.

During the night of August 1st-August 2nd Russian forces launched at least 139 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 109 drones. drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Slovyansk suffered a temporary blackout.

Civilian casualties include at least  4 killed and 24 wounded.

RuAF tacair dropped glide bombs into at least 2 towns.

During the night of July 31st-August 1st Russian forces launched at least 27 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 4 x Zircon missiles, 2 x Kh-31 cruise missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 185 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 1 Kh-59 cruise missile and 154 drones.

Damage was reported in Kharkiv, Kherson, Odessa, and Pavlohrad oblasts.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least  9 killed and 44 wounded; all the killed and 30 of the wounded were in Kyiv.

During the night of July 30th-July 31st Russian forces launched at least 1 missile - not further identified, and 255 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 185 drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnitskyi, Kyiv, Odessa, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr  oblast. 

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Sumy oblasts.

Civilian casualties include at least  11 injured.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 towns.

Economic Reporting

Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9         Jul31 Aug3

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 90.00 83.45

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 85.27 79.51

NG       3.97      2.73          2.79  3.14 3.12 2.75 2.76

Wheat     8.52           5.79 6.14   5.82          6.06 6.39 6.39

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 79.42 80.15

Hryvnia 28.6         43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.67 44.89

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 84.56 87.50

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 82.88 87.62

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 81.04 78.30

The Hryvnia has been slowly weakening since early October, moving from 41 to the dollar to the current 44, almost 45 (before the war, late 2021, the Hryvnia was trading around 25 to the dollar). 

The Ruble was 71 to the dollar as late as May but has traded between 76 and 83 since May of 2025. Just after the war started the ruble briefly dropped to 154 to the dollar, rebounded to 54 to the dollar just 3 months later, and has twice traded near 100 since. 

Thoughts

“Deep State,” an open source site that seeks to provide unbiased reporting on the war, reported yesterday that Russian forces captured more terrain in July than Ukrainian forces recovered., at least 20 square miles and perhaps 33 square miles…

I applaud their effort to report (they do an excellent job), but I think in a grand sense the numbers don’t really mean much. Both sides are now fighting a war of attrition; the Ukrainian leadership has stated repeatedly that the way ahead is to produce enough drones that the daily KIA count of Russian soldiers forces them to leave

Meanwhile, the Russian war of attrition grinds on and the only immediate geography that concerns Russian forces is causing enough losses in a given city that they can occupy it. Kostiantinivka is the next major target, but it will involve a great many KIAs before that happens.

About the assassination attempt against ColGen Chayko, this is the latest in a series of assassinations by Ukrainain intelligence. What is of note is that the Russians have not engaged in the same level of effort with regard to assassinations.

An online search - by no means definitive - yielded the following Ukrainain assassinations (claimed by one or the other Ukrainain elements)

Lt. Gen. Kirillov, chem/bio defense chief

Andrei Korotkiy, Zaporizhzhia plant official

Capt. Valery Trankovsky, Black Sea Fleet

Oleg Popov, occupation official

Mikhail Filiponenko, occupation official

Probable Ukrainain actions:

• Daria Dugina
• Vladlen Tatarsky (Maxim Fomin)
• Stanislav Rzhitsky, ex-sub commander
• Illia Kyva, defector-politician
• Alexei Kovalev, occupation official
• Vitaly Gura, occupation official
• Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik
• Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, Dec 2025

Russian - or probable Russian - actions:

• Maksim Kuzminov, defected Russian helicopter pilot

Russian actions attempted but not completed:

• Plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger
• NATO officials: several European defense-industry executives were targeted
• Multiple reported FSB/GRU plots against Zelensky

v/r pete