August 17th, 2026
Politics - Russia preparing to attack NATO?
- Drones shot down August 13th an 14th
Combat Ops - Few changes on ground
- Strikes continue, drones improve
Weather
Kharkiv
86 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
85 and sunny. Mostly sunny all week, except Wednesday - possible afternoon showers. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Kyiv
82 and partly cloudy, gusting over 25, light rain tonight. Rain tomorrow, then 2 days of clouds, then more rain on Friday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.
Politics
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that “US Intelligence sources” believe that Russia “could be planning” a limited incursion against NATO in the coming weeks.
The wording is typically atrocious; of course he could be planning.
At the same time Russian ForMin Lavrov announced on Friday that Russia will continue striking Ukraine, but will target Western support.
"We have submitted a series of questions to the State Department requesting comment, including on the matter of intelligence data and the fact that the US is far more deeply involved in organizing and executing strikes deep within Russian territory against civilian targets. We await a response.”
"Russia will intensify its military campaign in Ukraine and seek to destroy every element used by the West to sustain Kiev’s war effort.”
Lavrov accused Ukraine of "brazen acts of terrorism,” then added:
"We will not sink to their level. Instead, we will adopt much harsher methods to destroy everything that enables the West to fuel Kiev’s war machine. We are already doing this, and they are already moaning.”
On August 13th a Spanish Air Force F-18, on a NATO mission, shot down a drone over Romania. On August 14th an Italian Air Force, on a NATO mission, operating out of Lithuania, shot down a drone over Latvia.
Lithuanian DefMin Kaunas had earlier commented that there was intelligence that suggested Russia was preparing a flat flag operation using Ukrainian drones.
“We have information that Russia is considering carrying out unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.”
“It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this. Since Ukraine successfully attacks Russia, some of the Ukrainian drones are intercepted by Russia while defending themselves, and some of the drones crash. Russia has these drone parts or fragments, and it is capable of constructing them, molding them into a working device, and the theoretical possibility that such drones could be used for a false flag operation exists.”
Ground Operations
Overall, there was little change on the ground, with only small confirmed changes along the line, multiple false claims of gains by Russian forces, continued Russian recon probes and infiltrations, and the never ending drone, artillery and glide bomb strikes.
Some hard fighting is reported east of Slovyansk and Russian forces are being supported by multiple glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions. Multiple glide bomb strikes against hardened Ukrainian positions are noted daily in the fortress belt cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhivka, and Kostiantinivka.
Further north, in the Kupyansk area, Russian forces continue to probe back towards Kupyansk and had confirmed small gains on the east bank of the Oskil River, just opposite Kupyansk.
Russian forces continue to slowly consolidate positions inside Kostiantinivka but the city still remains a patchwork of Russian and Ukrainian elements.
Further west, Russian forces continue to press north and west in the general Dobropillia area, and multiple glide bone strikes were reported in that city as well, over the weekend. Nevertheless, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces retook terrain just north of Bilytske, just south-east of Dobropillia.
Further to the south-west, Ukrainian forces claim that Ukrainian forces have retaken Fillia, just south of Novopavlivka.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
Ukrainian Forces
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian facilities involved in weapons production, as well as oil industry and logistics centers.
During the night of August 13th-August 14th Ukrainian forces again struck the Ust-Luga oil refinery, east of St. Petersburg. Russian sources reported 1 civilian was killed and 6 wounded.
During the night of August 14th-August 15th two Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missiles struck the Progress Space Rocket Center in Samara City, Samara Oblast. The facility builds elements of the Soyuz rocket. The facility was reported to be on fire.
During the night of August 15th-August 16th Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensy plant in Rostov Oblast. The plant produces propellant for the Russian multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), among other things.
Also struck was a Wildberries warehouse in the Moscow area.
During the night of August 16th-August 17th Ukrainian missiles struck a logistics center in Belgorod. Russian sources reported that the strike killed 6 civilians and wounded 4 more.
Russian Forces
For the week of August 9th - August 15th Russian forces launched over 1,550 long range strike drones, 62 missiles (the bulk being ballistic missiles) and almost 1,560 glide bombs.
During the night of August 13th-August 14th Russian forces launched at least 112 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF did not report on numbers of missiles or number of missiles engaged.
Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 27 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 5 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).
During the night of August 14th-August 15th Russian forces launched at least 152 strike drones and a number of missiles into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF later reported that 127 drones and 3 Banderol loitering drones were brought down.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, and Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 2 civilians killed and 13 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 13 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).
During the night of August 15th-August 16th Russian forces launched a number of ballistic and cruise missiles and at least 106 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 85 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, and Poltava oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. More than 10,000 homes in Chernihiv suffered a power outage.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 22 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
During the night of August 16th-August 17th Russian forces launched at least 128 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 106 drones.
Damage was reported in oblast Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 16 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 4 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).
Odessa was struck hard over the weekend, with 5 dry cargo ships struck, as well as fuel tanks and warehouses.
Drone technology contains to advance. Ukrainian forces note that Russian drone communications links are shifting to frequency hopping spread spectrum links, further complicating efforts to jam control links. These drones are now operating up to 24 miles (40KM) beyond the front lines.
Russian drones are also being quipped with microphones to transmit audio to the controller to allow “sleeper” drones (drones that are sent forward, landed, and then wait for a potential target to pass near) more opportunity to identify possible targets.
Also of note, is that the number of Russian strike drones powered by jet engines continues to climb.
Early in the year Ukrainian efforts in drone engagements has resulted in, on an average night, between 5% and 10% of strike drones getting past air defenses. Over the past month or so, as more jet engine powered drones reach the battlefield, the percentage has inched up to roughly 20%.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug13 Aug17
Brent 94.71 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 88.08 88.85
WTI 92.10 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 82.29 82.57
NG 3.97 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.74 2.69
Wheat 8.52 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.35 6.53 6.70
Ruble 85 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.35 84.90
Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.71 44.80
Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 84.86 85.10
ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 85.68 85.02
Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 84.72 83.47
Thoughts
A threat consists of two things: capability and intent.
Russia has all sorts of plans to do all sorts of things; the plans exist. Putin knows of the plans and certainly can order them adjusted.
Russia has a demonstrated capability to conduct cyber attacks, drone attack, missile attacks, special operations attacks, etc. It has developed a long list of capable drones and missiles and has built a series of forward bases in Russian and Belarus that, given current drones, can reach Turkey and much of Eastern Europe. And certainly Russian planning staffs have drafted plans that would allow the use of these various capabilities, singular or in concert, to strike into NATO countries.
Presumably, only Putin has the authority to order such a strike. Whether he will or won’t is speculation. Even if Putin were overheard discussing doing this, it still would depend on his final decision. Lavrov’s comments are of note, but the real issue is the capability, which is real, matched with Putin’s intent, which is unknown.
Meanwhile, cyber attacks have been going on for years.
And drone attacks have, in fact, already taken place. Several months ago two Ukrainian drones “went off” course and struck the same building in Lithuania.
As for the idea of a “false flag” attack, at this point everyone is going to blame Putin anyway, so the false flag issue seems to me to be moot.
In the last few incidents NATO fighters have launched and intercepted the drones - Russian forces undoubtedly have a handle on response times and capabilities. A false flag attack isn’t going to tell him anything he doesn’t already know.
If there is anything to this, the issue is for Putin to really test NATO’s response: from an operational perspective, how well does NATO respond to 8 or 10 drones and what is the immediate follow-up, which forces go on alert, etc. More importantly, what is the political response out of NATO of 8 or 10 drones hitting a warehouse or two full of weapons headed to Ukraine? That would be something Putin might want to know.
v/r pete
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