August 18th, 2026

Politics - No news on talks

- But Rodney Cook met with Putin

- Khmara nominated to be MinDef

Combat Ops - Few changes on the ground

- Drone strikes continue

Weather

Kharkiv

89 and partly cloudy, gutting over 20. Mostly sunny all week. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 80s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

90 and sunny, gusting over 20. Thunderstorms on Wednesday, then clear through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

78 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20, rain tonight. Partly could through the weekend, rain showers Thursday and Friday afternoons. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Politics

President Putin’s aide, Yury Ushakov concerning talks:

There are no updates on a possible meeting with Ambassador Witkoff or Special Counsel Kushner. But he commented that diplomacy is best when conducted “quietly.”

"Diplomacy is usually always conducted quietly. If something is talked about loudly, it’s no longer diplomacy – it’s public statements.”

As for the next meeting, he said there was no need news, but:

"When it starts to take shape, we will announce it. So many questions about this visit, as though we are talking about some relatives coming from Kaluga to Moscow. You know, it is a serious international meeting, it requires preparation, coordination.”

Witkoff and Kushner’s last meeting with Putin was in January.

But in a related note, the Financial Times is reporting that Rodney Cook, Chair of the US Commission of Fine Arts and the architect responsible for the White House Ballroom design, met secretly with President Putin in June. No details were provided but the topic was the Russia Ukraine war.

President Zelenskyy has submitted Yevhenii Khmara, acting Defence Minister, to be Defense Minister and Andrii Sybiha to be foreign minister.

Apparently a key issue was that Khmara wished to remain on active duty in the army. Ukrainian law states that 4th defense minister must be a civilian, and there was talk of amending the law. However, Khmara has now agreed to resign from the army. The Verkhovna Rada is expected to vote on the two nominations tomorrow, the 19th.

MGEN Skibitskyi, the deputy director Ukrainian Military Intelligence, commented on future Russian threats to Europe:

“At present, we consider so-called asymmetric threats—hybrid operations—to be the most realistic. Since spring, Alliance countries have been targeted by unidentified drones. Now Romania and Poland have at least begun shooting down these targets. Now, narratives discrediting ‘NATO’ weapons are spreading in the information sphere.”

“In its plans, the Russian Federation is preparing for war with NATO countries by 2030. The Alliance also openly states that by 2030, Russia will be capable of conducting more active military operations against NATO member states.”

Russia is protesting Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi comments about the Kuril Islands following President Putin’s visit to the islands last week.

Takaichi called Putin’s visit “Absolutely unacceptable.”

“The Northern Territories are inherently part of Japan’s territory, both historically and under international law.”

“This visit has further hardened anti-Russian sentiment within Japan and has made the restoration of relations over the medium- to long- term more difficult.”

Ground Operations

Activity continues along most of the line of contact but there were very few changes noted.

Fighting continues in and around Kostiantinivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the area.

Further west, moving westward along the M-30 roadway from the Pokrovsk - Hryshyne area, the Ukrainian government has ordered the mandatory evacuation of children and their parents from the a cluster of towns and villages located in an area 20 to 30 miles out along the roadway:

Mykolaivka, Dmytrivka, Olefirivka, Bazhany, Petrivka, Katerynivka, Maryanivka, Malomykolayivka, Novoprychepylivka, Ukrainske, Zelenyy Gay, Novoselivka, Novokhoroshevske, Troitske, Petropavlovsk and Samarske.

In the south-east Ukrainian and Russian forces remain heavily engaged along the lines about 15 miles north of Hulyaipole, with Ukrainian forces continuing to press east (this is the block of terrain they reclaimed in February and March, and which they have recently finished clearing), and Russian forces continuing to infiltrate and counter-attack.

The actual line here is vague at best and the gray zone is from 5 to 10 miles wide in most areas. Russian infiltration teams have repeatedly probed several miles beyond any demarcated line, and imagery confirmed that Russian recon elements had reached the town of Novosoloshyne, a small village (population 136 before the war) that sits astride the T0408 roadway that runs northward out of Orikhiv.

The Russians claim to control the town (located about 12-13 miles north of Orikhiv, and a similar distance north-west of Hulyaipole) but that is by no means clear. Rather, it would seem that a small element, perhaps several squads in size, pushed out several miles beyond the line. Whether they dig in and try to hold remains to be seen.

Controlling the town is essential for Ukraine’s position in the south as it represents the major GLOC into Orikhiv.

South-west of Hulyaipole Ukrainian forces have pushed back into the center of Hulyaipilske (located about 10 miles south-west of Hulyaipole along the T0814 roadway).

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Ukrainian Forces

Ukrainian long range drones struck Moscow as well as Crimea and the near rear, to include 5 tactical command posts. 

Ukrainian sources are reporting that the tanker Skiros (Greek flag, 900 feet, 159,000 deadweight tons, also listed as Liberian flag) was struck just off the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk, Sunday after taking on a load of fuel.

The ship has secured its AIS and is un-located but in the eastern Black Sea

During the night of August 16th-August 17th Ukrainian missiles struck a logistics center in Belgorod. Russian sources reported that the strike killed 6 civilians and wounded 4 more.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 17th-August 18th Russian forces launched at least 147 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 111 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odessa and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least 10 civilians killed and 8 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

During the night of August 16th-August 17th Russian forces launched at least 128 strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it brought down 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 106 drones.

Damage was reported in oblast Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Sumy oblast. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Of note, 13 drones or missiles struck a number of Naftogaz facilities in Ukraine, bringing the number of separate strikes on Naftogaz facilities to 293 strikes in 2026 alone.

Civilian casualties include at least 3 civilians killed and 16 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 4 towns in cross border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border (Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts).

In drone related reporting, The Telegraph reports that Russian forces have built 59 drone launch sites along the western Russian border (near Ukraine and Belarus) and each base has extensive storage for long range drones - estimate of over 1,000 drones at each site.

The Moldovan MOD reports that a Banderol cruise missile (Russian low cost loitering cruise missile) crashed in a corn field in Moldova on Monday, about 12 miles from the Ukraine border, near the town of Talmaze (about 12 miles south of Tirasol, about 45 miles west of Odessa).

Per the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, this is the 12th Russian drone that has entered EU airspace since July 15th.

Civilian Ukrainian casualties for July were 437 killed and 2,610 wounded. 

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug17 Aug18

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 88.85 91.09

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 82.57 85.13

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64 2.69 2.72

Wheat     8.52          6.14    5.82   6.06  6.35 6.70 6.90

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 84.90 85.15

Hryvnia 28.6        43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.80 44.75

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 85.10 84.60

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 85.02 87.37

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 83.47 86.98

Thoughts

The Ukrainian civilian casualty count - killed and wounded - is climbing, and the rate is also climbing. Overall totals are 16,874 civilians killed and 51,273 wounded. 

Breaking the data down a bit isn’t clean; the split between killed and wounded is not clear for the first year (2022) but the totals look like this through the end of 2025 (note, too, that this is confirmed data, the complete data is presumably higher and may be substantially higher):

2022: 12,670

2023: 9,138

2024: 8,423

2025: 12,176

This yields a total of 42,407 casualties through the end of 2025, a rate of 920 per month, but more than 1,000 per month in 2025.

For 2026, January through June, 1,396 civilians were killed, and 7,978 were wounded, a rate of roughly 230 killed per month and 1300 wounded per month. For the 7 month period of January - July 2026 a total of 1,833 civilians have been killed and 10,588 wounded.

But for July, reports show 437 killed and 2,610 wounded, a 90% increase in the number killed per month for this year, and a 100% increase in the number wounded per month. July has the highest civilian death toll of any month except March 2022 - the first full month of the war.

While some part of this increase is the improved internal tracking of casualties, it speaks to a change in Russian tactics, with substantially more FPV drone strikes, and more drone strikes into the “near rear” of Ukrainian lines - into terrain with many more civilians, as well as an expanded use of glide bombs which have substantially larger and more lethal warheads. With the slow (but steady) expansion of the Russian “Rassvet” communications satellite constellation, and as that constellation expands in capability, it is likely these strikes will expand in frequency and lethality.

v/r pete