August 21st, 2026

Politics - Fedorov Issue still circulating 

- Russian Foreign Office comments on proposals

- Nord Stream stranger than fiction

Combat Ops - No real changes on ground

- Strikes continue 

Weather

Kharkiv

90 and sunny, gusting to 30. Sunny or mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the 90s through the weekend, then in the 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

88 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny or mostly sunny for the next week. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

63 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny or mostly sunny for the next week. Tomorrow’s highs in the low 90s, after that daily highs will be mid 70s, daily lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

There is nothing new from Fedorov.

There are, however, editorials in various Ukrainian papers on the subject; one in the Kyiv Post, written by Bohdan Nahaylo (Chief Editor), concludes with this:

“Ukraine can justify strong presidential coordination as a matter of national survival. What it cannot afford is letting that coordination harden into a governing habit that outlasts its justification. When wartime adjustment erodes accountability, the constitutional line does not just blur – it starts to slip. And it will be harder to restore when the emergency is over than it will be to defend it.

So, if elections cannot be held now because of the ongoing war, remedies are urgently needed to bolster the workings of democracy, accountability and transparency in the ways foreseen in Ukraine’s Constitution.”

The Ukrainian News Agency (a private news agency) reported that Former DefMin Fedorov has been accumulating wealth since leaving office last month.

Per the agency, when he left office in July he was worth less than UAH 1 million ($22,000) and his wife had UAH 45,000 ($1,000) in her bank account. He now has UAH 1.3 million ($29,000) in his bank account, his wife claims earning of UAH 4,250,785 ($96,000) since January, reports she now has UAH 600,000 ($13,000) and a separate account in US currency with $15,000. Fedorov’s salary as Defense Minister was UAH 183,000 ($4,200) per month.

Russian Deputy ForMin Ryabkov in an interview published this morning in Moscow commented that Russia is ready to resume negotiations and consider various proposals as long as they reflect “realities on the ground.”

“The Russian Federation is ready to listen to any reasonable proposals and ideas that are in line with the goals set by the Russian president and meet the ‘realities on the ground’.”

“At this stage, it is more important to what extent Washington is able to influence the decisions of the Kyiv regime and its European sponsors, who still dream of a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia.”

Thursday night President Zelenskyy commented that he was:

“… preparing decisions within the diplomatic team… New approaches are needed in some areas, particularly in the United States…Ukraine needs results.”

The figure behind the 2nd Nord Stream indictment - Vladimir Z - has been identified as Volodymyr Zhuravlev, 

Zhuravlev, a Ukrainian, was arrested Wednesday in Croatia. He was working as a consultant on a movie called “Snake Island,” which is, reportedly a fictionalized account of the bombing of the Nord Stream Pipelines. The movie is being directed by Doug Liman (director of “The Bourne Identity) and reportedly stars Sean Penn and Adrien Brody.

Zhuravlev is a professional diver and dive instructor.

Zhuravlev has denied any involvement in the bombing.

Poland PM Tusk asked Germany to not hold criminally liable those who blew up the Nord Stream Pipelines.

"Germany should certainly not prosecute those who, in a situation where their country has been attacked, take one action or another. I will not change my mind here, and I believe that those who built this pipeline should be ashamed, not those who disabled it.”

In response to a question, Tusk noted that Poland had been opposed to the pipeline for years, and had worried over Europe’s increased dependence on Russia energy.

"Germany had a different opinion at the time. They changed their mind, but too late."

Ground Operations

Fighting, and probes and infiltration continued along virtually the entire line, but there were few confirmed changes.

Imagery did confirm small Russian gains in Sumy oblast, south-east of Sumy city.

North of Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Ukrainian gains in the town of Vodvanske, south of Dobropillia and there were multiple claims of Russian gains in the long arc from Pokrovsk to Kostiantinivka, but none of them were confirmed.

Imagery did confirm Russian gains north-west of Udachne (west of Pokrovsk).

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

Ukrainian Forces

Ukraine has begun the deployment of a jet-powered interceptor drone to combat the improved Geran (Russian made Shahed) drones. The new Ukrainian drone, about 5 feet long and a 6 foot wingspan) has a top speed over 300kts, and can carry several different warheads.

During August 20th-21st, Ukrainian missiles and drones struck multiple targets in Crimea and the oil refinery in Perm and Tamanneftegaz Oil Terminal in Volna, and the TANEKO Oil Refinery in Nizhnekamsk.

During the night of August 18th-August 19th Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ufa, and Ukrainian sources claim that one processing unit was “destroyed.”

The Ukrainian General Staff claims that the strike on August 14th-15th on Progress Space Launch Complex in Samara hit the Soyuz launch vehicle assembly workshop.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched at least 135 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed to have brought down 107 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. A power outage was reported in Sumy oblast. A Russian strike drone again hit a border crossing on the Ukrainian - Moldovan border.  

Civilian casualties include at least 6 killed and 24 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched at least several Iskander ballistic missiles as well as a number of Oniks and Zircon missiles, 36 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 2 x Banderol loitering munitions, and 168 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF shot down 31 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles both Banderols, and 145 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. A Russian strike drone hit a border crossing on the Ukrainian - Moldovan border, about 30 miles west of Odessa.  A power outage was reported in Sumy oblast.

Civilian casualties include at least 23 killed and 45 wounded, at least of the 13 dead were in Kyiv. Mayor Klitschko said that roughly 4,000 of the 12,000 buildings in the city have now been damaged since the war began. Also of note, the basic city response to any attack costs UAH 500 million ($11 million).

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 7 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Sumy Oblast.

Russian Glide Bomb usage continues to slowly grow, inching up month to month. Lost October daily use was 171 per day, dropped to 115 per day in November, reached 190 per day in January and has generally been climbing since. In July they averaged 267 per day (8,300 per month), and Russian production has reportedly reached 10,000 per month 330 per month).

RuAF dropped 48,000 glide bombs in all of 2025, but has already dropped 50,700 in the first 7 months of 2026.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9        Aug7 Aug20 Aug21

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.72 94.34

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 86.66 87.28

NG       3.97      2.79          3.14 3.12          2.64   2.75 2.76

Wheat     8.52            6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35          7.03 6.96

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.38 82.89

Hryvnia 28.6         43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.65 44.69

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 88.85 88.85

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 88.89 90.28

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 86.88 88.42

Thoughts

It is of note that both sides are trying harder to ramp up the size and intensity of their strikes - the war is escalating in slow motion - but it is escalating.

This war has been very slowly escalating since the first few months, with new technology and more people being pushed into the grind. Both sides are producing more and more missiles bombs and drones - lots of drones. In the last month the Russians have begin regular - daily - artillery barrages into border towns in Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts (the northern borders (north-east of Kyiv)). And Russian glide bomb usage continues to slowly rise

And, the large numbers casualties continue to grow. If you listen closely you can hear echoes of the “sunk cost” argument, particularly in arguments out of Europe that “we must not stop now.”

This is not to suggest in any way that Ukraine should surrender. Rather, it is to simply argue that the two sides have reached a point very much analogous to the Western Front in the fall of 1916: the battle of the Somme was winding down, hundreds of thousands had been killed and wounded, and the line had not moved. In the following 2 years of fighting more millions would die and the lines would remain essentially unchanged. 

As for Fedorov, I may be reading too much into this, but consider this: that there were four weeks of public protests over a fired minister, then Zelenskyy official nominated a replacement, followed by Fedorov’s  call for a new election as he fears democracy and the rule of law is being crushed under martial law, then the nearly unanimous legislative vote to install the new ministers (and in effect agree with the firing of Fedorov) - which would seem to support Fedorov’s argument the the legislature has become something of a rubber stamp, and now a news story that Fedorov is suddenly worth a good deal more money than just a month ago. And in the background the continued corruption investigations that continue to reach into Zelenskyy’s staff. And more and more stories of truly atrocious “recruiting” of men off the streets of Ukrainian cities.

Whatever lies beneath, this certainly isn’t helping Ukraine.

v/r pete