August 25th, 2026 Next Summary August 27th, 2026

Politics - CIA Director in Moscow

- Zelenskyy’s former Deputy COS arrested

Combat Ops - Strikes continue

- Fighting may be picking up in the south

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and sunny, gusting to 20. Cloudy through Friday, morning showers on Thursday. Daily lows near 60, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and sunny. Cloudy Tomorrow through Saturday morning, showers on Friday. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the lower 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

67 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny into the weekend, rain on Sunday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics

CBS News reported that the Director of the CIA (John Ratcliffe) in in Moscow for meetings. When asked early today, Kremlin spokesman Peskov claimed to have no knowledge of the visit, or who was in fact visiting. 

Iryna Mudra, the President Zelenskyy’s former deputy Chief of Staff, has been arrested and the High Anti-Corruption Court has set post bail at UAH 20 million ($450,000).

Mudra’s office was raided by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) on the morning of August 19th (last Wednesday) and Mudra was fired by Zelenskyy later that afternoon.

Mudra, a lawyer and former Deputy Minister of Justice, is charged with, among other things, laundering some UAH 150 million ($3750,000) to post bail for the former Ukrainian Minister of Justice German Halushchenko (who is charged with skimming some $100 million worth of state energy funding.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry reports that North Korea is “continuing preparations” for deployment of forces into Russia but, per a South Korean legislator, Rep. Yoo Yong-won, Korean intelligence has not detected indications that the deployment is imminent. 

Earlier reporting has suggested that as many as 50,000 North Korean troops would be deployed to Russia, but that number has not been confirmed.

Ground Operations

North-east of Slovyansk imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces active just east of Dibrova (a town with a population of less than 400 before the war). Dibrova is on the north side of the Donets River (which runs roughly east-west in this area), and it appears that Russian forces are trying to push westward along the slightly elevated southern banks while Ukrainian forces are trying to hold on the northern bank and along the T0513 roadway. Much of this terrain was woods (part of the Serebrianske forest) but much of the forest has been burned as a result of 4 years of war and artillery fire.

In the terrain south of this area Russian forces continue to probe westward, with probes reportedly reaching into Mykolaivka (5 miles east of Slovyansk) as well as Zapovidne (about 6 miles south-west of Slovyansk, just south of the M03 roadway, west of the Donets canal). There are also credible claims that Russian forces have taken control of Orikhuvatka (2.5 miles west of Rai Oleksandrivka, 6 miles east-south-east of Slovyansk). If accurate, it almost certainly means that Rai Oleksandrivka has been secured by the Russians, closing up some of the would-be salients into the Russian controlled terrain, but that has not been confirmed.

There were no changes in the Kostiantinivka area, but there is a good deal of reporting concerning fighting around Dobropillia (north of Pokrovsk, and claims that Russian forces are pressing on the east edge of the town but imagery shows that terrain still held by Ukrainian forces.

Further south, Ukrainian forces report that they have cleared Russian elements out of Novosoloshyne (a small village that sits astride the T0408 roadway, 6 miles north of Orikhiv, about 12 miles west-north-west of Hulyaipole), but the implications are that activity is increasing in this area.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had received “a small batch” of Patriot missiles.

The Russians have struck 3 border posts (control entry points) west of Odessa in the last several days. These posts are control points for traffic between Ukrainian ports and Moldova and Romania, in particular, the Romanian ports that are being used to try to supplement Ukrainian ports due to the damage done to Ukrainian port facilities by Russian strikes. Damage to the border posts won’t prevent movement of grain trucks, for example, but it will complicate the process, making it simply more difficult and slowing the movement of trucks back and forth. In short, it’s harassment.

Ukrainian Forces

Since August 22nd Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed 3 x air surveillance radars, a MiG-29 and a Ka-52 attack helicopter at Russian bases along the periphery of eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces also struck the Kamensky military-industrial plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast.

Ukrainian forces also struck two more logistics centers / warehouses and the Afipsky oil refinery - 75 miles east of Kerch.

Russian air defense forces claimed to have shot down 460 strike drones, 8 JDAM, and 5 HIMARS rockets.

On August 22nd Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in Samara City. The refinery was also struck on the 18th.

A logistics warehouse was also struck in Samara.

The Yeysk oil complex was also struck on the 22nd.

Russian Forces

During the night of August 24th-August 25th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x Kh-31p missile, and 150 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 124 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv,  Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.  3 checkpoint in the general area west of Odessa have now been struck in the last 4 or 5 days.

Civilian casualties include at least 1 killed and 22 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 22 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported (but it has not been confirmed) that Russian forces struck a ship in port Pivdennyi (about 15 miles north-east of Odessa) as well as port facilities in the area.

During the night of August 23rd-August 24th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Onix missiles, 6 x Kh-31p or 59 missiles, 143 x strike drones and at least 2 x Banderol loitering munitions. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 1 Onix, 2 cruise missiles, 2 Banderols, and 109 strike drones.

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. Power outages were reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Zaporizhia, oblasts

Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 26 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 6 towns. 

Russian artillery struck 12 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of  Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.

Economic Reporting

         Feb22  May8 Jun8 Jul9          Aug7 Aug24 Aug25

Brent      94.71   100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 93.08 89.55

WTI     92.10   94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 85.45 82.59

NG       3.97      2.79           3.14 3.12           2.64   2.81 2.72

Wheat     8.52            6.14   5.82          6.06 6.35 7.00 6.97

Ruble     85         74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 83.36 83.80

Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.64 44.61

Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 85.87 86.51

ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 92.49 90.17

Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 89.63 88.62

Thoughts

The fighting in the south - in and near Novosoloshyne - is of note as that town, and the town just to its south (Mykilske), sit astride two of the very important ground lines of logistics (GLOCs) for the fight in the south-east and south. 

Novosoloshyne and Mykilske - which is immediately south of the first town - are both small towns that sit astride the T0408 roadway and one unnamed road, 6 miles north of Orikhiv, and about 12 miles west-north-west of Hulyaipole. These two roads constitute 2 of the 3 GLOCs into Orikhiv. Russian control of these towns, and hence the roads, as summer ends and autumn rains begin would present difficulties to support of Ukrainian forces in the south and south-east.

Various Russian blog commentary (the more sane ones) report fighting has increased in the area and the Ukrainian report that they have cleared the town has to be placed against some earlier Ukrainian commentary last week that the Russians weren’t there. Blogger comments note that some Russian forces have been shifted into this area and that the fight for the town is not over; rather, it’s just beginning. Further, there are suggestions that Russian recon probes are already pushing on Mykilske.

v/r pete