August 10th, 2026

Politics - Senate passes Graham Sanctions Bill

- 30,000+North Korean troops 

- State Department oks weapons transfer

- Ukraine - Kosovo disagreement 

Combat Ops - Small changes on ground

- Drone Strikes continue

- Anti-Drone systems

Weather

Kharkiv

82 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

87 and scattered showers, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, daily highs in the 90s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

79 and sunny, gusting over 30. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Politics

On Friday the Senate passed the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act.” The bill now heads to the House. The bill:

• Authorizes the President to impose tariffs up to 100% on imports from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas
• Extends Iran sanctions
• Imposes sanctions targeting Putin, Putin’s close associates, various Russian banks and energy projects, and "shadow" of tankers
• Imposes tariffs up to 500% on direct Russian imports

President Zelenskyy claimed in an interview on Saturday that Russia and North Korea have agreed to a deployment of 30,000 - 50,000 North Korean troops into Russia. Where and when was not known (or not released).

On Friday the State Department approved transfer of the following from Turkey to Ukraine:

• 70 x M39 ATACMS 
• 12 x M270 MLRS 
• 2,524 x M26 MLRS rockets
• 47,000 x M509A1 203mm DPICM howitzer rounds

The Mayor of Pristina (the Capital of Kosovo) ordered the removal of the Ukrainian flag from city government displays following President Zelenskyy’s comments in Serbia on Friday.

Zelenskyy met with President Vucic of Serbia and during a news conference noted that Ukraine respected territorial integrity of its friends and allies, thanked Serbia for supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and said that the Ukrainain position on Kosovo remains unchanged.

Ukraine has not recognized Kosovo’s independence (2008).

Kosovo’s Foreign Minister Glauk Konjufca, commented:

“We note with regret President Zelenskyy’s statements in Belgrade, where he reaffirmed Ukraine’s non-recognition of the Republic of Kosovo. From the first day of Russia’s full-scale aggression, Kosovo has stood unequivocally with Ukraine. We condemned the invasion, fully aligned with the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, imposed sanctions on Russia and Belarus, provided humanitarian assistance and shelter for Ukrainian journalists, and contributed aid and military training in support of Ukraine’s defense. We did so despite Ukraine’s non-recognition of our state, because solidarity with a people defending its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity is a matter of principle.”

Commenting on Balkan unrest in the 1990s and Kosovo’s independence, he added:

“What followed was not an act of annexation, invasion or territorial occupation, but a comprehensive international process under United Nations administration and years of internationally mediated negotiations on Kosovo’s final status. When those negotiations had exhausted every possibility for a solution accepted by both sides, the United Nations special envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, recommended independence as Kosovo’s final status and presented a comprehensive framework for the new state, including some of the broadest constitutional guarantees in Europe for non-majority communities.”

Albania’s Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs also rejected comparisons between Kosovo’s independence and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Two unidentified drones conducted a total of 6 overflights of the Bundeswehr Patriot repair and maintenance facility at Mechernich (just south-west of Bonn) on August 7th.

On August 8th an Ukrainian drone exploded in a field in Bulgaria, about 650 feet from a gas compressor station, along the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline.

Ground Operations

There are a number of small gains by both sides, overall, infiltrations continue across much of the front.

Ukrainian forces appear to gained ground north-east of Kharkiv near the small towns of Lyman and Tsehelne. The terrain around these towns, except for just west of Lyman, is all open fields (west of Lyman is woods), and this activity represents movement up and down the tree lines. This terrain has see-sawed back and forth a bit in the recent past. Other reporting suggests Russian forces may have pushed into Ivanivka; again the lines are slowly flexing back and forth in this area, and it is not clear how well either side holds these particular positions.

Elsewhere in the area, Russian infiltrations continue, and Russian forces were active north of the Oskil river border crossing. This doesn’t represent a change in the lines, just a continuation of Russian operations.

East of the Oskil River Ukrainain forces made gains both north-east and south-east of Borova, but there is also other reporting suggesting Russian gains in the same area, which I suspect again represents the “see-saw” nature of some of these fronts. Part of it also reflects the reality that the gray zone - where neither side really has control - continues to widen as drones continue to become incrementally more effective.

There were no confirmed changes to the lines from Kostiantinivka west to Pokrovsk, but Russian forces continue to infiltrate more assets forward. Interestingly, Ukrainain forces noted that Russian forces are rotating fresh troops in even as they increase the number of infiltrations.

Russian infiltration efforts were also reported in Orikhiv, with Ukrainian sources saying that the infiltration team was destroyed. At the same time, Russian glide bomb strikes have been reported in and near Orikhiv, suggesting Russian efforts are moving in that direction.

Air and Maritime Operations

Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes. 

Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out). 

Blogger reports claim that Russian forces are trying to install signal repeaters in towns north of Kharkiv in order to extend signal coverage and thereby extend drone range. 

Imagery from August 7th showed a small Russian armored element - 7 tanks - conducting a brief attack near Dobropillia. What is of note is that Ukrainian forces responded with FPV drones and were only able to immobilize a single tank.

The tanks, (T-72B3Ms) were apparently equipped with an improved “Arena-M Armor Protection System.”

The system uses a radar linked to a dispenser of rounds that will explode close aboard the tank but destroy incoming anti-tank rounds or drones. The system has been criticized for only having a total of 12 rounds, but that they only lost one tank once they were attacked suggests the Russians are making progress…

Ukrainian Forces

On the 8th, Ukrainian strikes again hit Wildberries warehouses as well as two oil facilities. Oil facilities struck were:

• Oil refinery in Syzran - 450 miles south-east of Moscow
• Oil facility in Kstovo - 275 miles east-north-east of Moscow 
• Warehouses were hit in the Moscow and St Petersburg areas

Casualty reports included 15 civilians killed and 56 wounded.

Russian forces claimed its forces shot down 153 drones.

During August 7th-August 8th Ukrainian forces struck the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, and imagery showed the facility on fire.

Also struck was the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast; imagery again showed a fire at the facility.

On August 8 Ukrainian forces struck a tanker in the eastern Black Sea. There is no damage report for the ship.

During August 9th Ukrainian forces struck an oil tanker and 2 dry bulk cargo ships in the eastern Black Sea.

During the night of August 9th - August 10th Ukrainian forces struck an oil facility in Nizhnekamsk (500 miles east of Moscow). Russian reports claimed 13 civilians were killed in the attack and 39 others wounded.

Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed they intercepted 450 Ukrainian drones.

Additionally, Ukrainian drones struck the Sibur oil facility, in Tobolsk (about 600 miles north-east of Moscow).

And 1 ship was reported on fire off the coast of Novorossiysk (not clear if this was the ship mentioned above).

Russian Forces

Ukraine’s Deputy PM and Minster of Energy Shmyhal reported on Friday that Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid and power infrastructure in the past 12 months have caused some $70 billion in damage (additional damage) and that 80% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been damaged or destroyed and that there is now a 6GW generation gap.

Public estimates suggest that Ukraine is currently able to generate about 1/3rd of pre invasion installed capacity. Prior to the war Ukraine had roughly 43 GW of installed capacity and now has between 12 and 14 GW, with a need for 18-20GW as a minimum.

Statements from the government suggest that about 1/3rd of the population has access to steady power, 1/3rd have access to communal centers during periods of extreme cold, and about 1/3rd of the population will need to provide their own solutions.

Russian strikes over the next 6 months and through the winter will focus on making the situation worse.

During the night of August 7th-August 8th Russian forces launched at least 8 x Iskander ballistic missile and 152 x strike drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 135 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, and Odessa oblast.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. The port facilities in Odessa were again struck. A power outage was reported in Kyiv.

Civilian casualties include at least  4 killed and 8 wounded.

1 Turkish ship was struck by drone off Novorossiysk.

RuAF tacair struck at least 2 towns.

During the night of August 8th-August 9th Russian forces launched 17 missiles (numbers not clear) to include Iskander ballistic missiles, and Onyx, Kh-31 and Banderol cruise missiles, and 202 x strike drones into Ukrainain air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 174 drones and 5 Banderol missiles..

Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Odessa, Pavlohrad, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblast.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.

Civilian casualties include at least  3 killed and 40 wounded.

RuAF tacair struck at least 1 town.

During the night of August 9th-August 10th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, 3 x Banderol cruise missiles, and 126 strike drones not Ukrainain airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated with EW, 3 Banderols and 92 drones.

Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblast.

Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure; power and water infrastructure in Odessa were both damaged.

Civilian casualties include at least 5 killed and 39 wounded.

Of note, Ukrainian reports noted that 19 border towns in northern Ukraine (north-east of Kyiv) were struck with artillery fire.

Former MinDef Fedorov commented over the weekend that current Russian missile production exceeds Ukraine’s cumulative domestic and foreign production.

During July Russian attacks on maritime infrastructure has damaged 67 different port facilities, 35 ships in port, and 22 ships in the approaches to Ukrainian ports.

Russian long range strike totals for August 3rd - August 9th included more than 56 ballistic missiles, 5 cruise missiles, 1,560 strike drones, and 1,540 glide bombs.

Economic Reporting

       Feb22  Apr8 May8 Jun8 Jul9        Aug7 Aug10

Brent      94.71   91.78 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 84.82

WTI     92.10   93.53 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 79.49

NG       3.97      2.73          2.79 3.14          3.12  2.64 2.77

Wheat     8.52           5.79 6.14    5.82   6.06  6.35 6.50

Ruble     85          78.54 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 82.63

Hryvnia 28.6       43.45 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.86

Urals 91.66 124.85 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 81.08

ESPO 94.52 103.27 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 79.99

Sokol 99.31 96.88 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 77.91

Thoughts

Perhaps the most interesting piece of data that came out in the last 4 or 5 days is the comment from an Ukrainian unit commander that Russian forces are rotating troops even as they infiltrate troops.

The issue of troop rotation has been a painful one for both armies, and the nature of the “infiltration war” is that small units routinely get isolated and must survive for extended period of time - months - surrounded by the enemy. Then, once they return to the parent units the parent units spend very long periods on the front line. There are multiple units that, until early this year, had gone more than a year without rotating off the front line. One of DefMin Fedorov’s efforts as soon as he entered his office in January, was to fix that and he reportedly made substantive headway.

Nevertheless, the Russians appear to have been more consistent with their rotations than the Ukrainians. That the Ukrainian unit commander noted it makes me wonder if it may well be his way of poking his senior that they need to be better at rotating troops.

v/r pete