August 24th, 2026
Politics - Ukrainian Independence Day - 35th anniversary
- Zelenskyy: elections are a huge risk
- Zelenskyy: Ukraine not involved with Nord Stream attack
Combat Ops - Developments around Slovyansk, Kostiantinivka
- Strikes continue
Weather
Kharkiv
76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny tomorrow, then clouding up, rain by Thursday, then clearing. Daily lows in the mid to upper 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds westerly, 5-10kts.
Melitopol
80 and sunny, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow, then clouding up and cloudy into the weekend. Daily lows in the 60s, daily highs in the upper 80s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Kyiv
69 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny into Saturday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.
Politics
President Zelenskyy responded yesterday to former Defense Minister Fedorov’s call for elections with a firm ‘no.’
“I believe that in a war like this, elections as such are a huge risk. Elections right now are a tsunami for the country that will split Ukraine. If we want to destroy the country, then we can move in the direction of elections during these times of war.”
Zelenskyy was elected to a five year term in 2019, his term nominally ending in May 2024. However, the Ukrainian law suspended elections under martial law, which was declared in February 2022 and remain in effect, extended every 90 days by act of the Verkhovna Rada (the legislature).
Yesterday Zelenskyy also commented on the implications of the arrest of a second Ukrainian diver in connection with the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines on September 26th, 2022.
“Ukraine has officially never taken part in any operation related to the sabotage of Nord Stream 2. The issue is not about who wants what or who does not. There is an investigation, and it is currently underway. There is a situation, there are allegations, there are relevant witnesses — in other words, the process is ongoing.”
He noted that Germany knows “perfectly well that Ukraine was not behind the planning or execution of the operation in question.”
“It is very important for us not to lose our partnership or the trust of the European countries that have been helping Ukraine since the beginning of this war. That is why we are absolutely open to taking joint steps in the investigation and to joint efforts to establish all the circumstances surrounding the actions taken at that time.”
Yesterday President Zelenskyy presented a Ukrainian - EU - US proposal, which reportedly includes Ukrainian concessions, to end the war. Details have not been released but rumor has it that the proposals include a ceasefire, reciprocal withdrawal of Russian and Ukrainian so some set distance from the current front line, and EU - NATO security guarantees.
Poland’s Deputy ForMin Bosacki has commented that the inclusion of Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych would cause problems with Ukraine’s admission into the EU.
“Every nation and its authorities have the right to choose whichever heroes they see fit… However, if individuals responsible for mass crimes against the civilian population, such as Bandera or Shukhevych, were indeed to appear in Ukraine's National Pantheon, it would significantly worsen Ukraine's relations not only with Poland but with Europe as a whole.”
"Ukraine knows that under the flags of those who killed – incidentally, not only Poles but also some Ukrainians, as well as Czechs, Jews and Roma – that is, the creators of the UPA during the worst period of its activity, in 1943-1944, Ukraine will have enormous problems with integration into Europe.”
The UK will allow for the declassification of information on the Storm Shadow cruise missile (300nm, 1,000 lb warhead) to allow Ukrainian manufacturing of the missile. Storm Shadow was jointly developed with the French, who refer to it as the SCALP missile.
There was a 10 for 10 POW swap this morning in Belarus
Ground Operations
There appear to be some tactically significant developments in the center of the line, with Russian gains east of Slovyansk and in Kostiantinivka.
While reporting was not clear at the end of last week, imagery of the Slovyansk area over the weekend confirmed that Russian elements are pushing westward on 4 fairly narrow thrusts, using local high ground to improve their positions against Ukrainian elements on lower terrain, securing holdings along the line of Zakitne to Kryva Luka (north-east of Slovyansk about 10 miles), have reached Mykolaivka, and reached and may have pushed through Rai Oleksandrivka (due east of Slvoyansk), and may have also gained some ground to the south-east around Fedorivka Druha (pushing north-west along the M03 roadway).
In the Kostiantinivka area daily Russian operations appear to be building in intensity, with, per Ukrainian army reports, increased infiltrations, increased glide bomb attacks and, increased FPV drone attacks in Kostiantinivka, Druzhkivka and Dobropillia. Per this reporting Druzhkivka is being struck with 1,500 - 2,000 FPV drones per day and Dobropillia being hit with 1,200 FPV drones per day; this is in addition to artillery strikes, glide bomb attacks, and an unknown number of fiber optic drones per day.
This increase in activity supports an assessment that Russian forces wish to conclude the siege of Kostiantinivka, and shift the attack to Duzhivka, with extra pressure on Slovyansk to prevent shifting of forces to defend Kostiantinivka, and closing on Slovyansk to bring that city under more direct artillery and FPV drone attack.
Air and Maritime Operations
Both sides continue the long-range drone / cruise missile strikes.
Both sides also continue the drone sniping across the front lines into the immediate rear (the vast majority less than 5 miles out).
North Korea reportedly deployed drone operators to Kursk, supporting Russia’s war, and of course gaining combat experience. Per Ukrainian intelligence, approximately 8,500 North Korean soldiers are in Kursk oblast, to include a 400 man drone battalion.
Ukrainian Forces
On August 22nd Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in Samara City. The refinery was also struck on the 18th.
A logistics warehouse was also struck in Samara.
The Yeysk oil complex was also struck on the 22nd.
On August 21st Ukrainian forces struck the MV TEAM in the eastern Black Sea, en route Novorossiysk and the MV VOLOG BALT. The crew of MV TEAM abandoned ship, there were no casualties on VOLOG BALT, which apparently sustained minor damage.
Ukraine has begun the deployment of a jet-powered interceptor drone to combat the improved Geran (Russian made Shahed) drones. The new Ukrainian drone, about 5 feet long and a 6 foot wingspan) has a top speed over 300kts, and can carry several different warheads.
Russian Forces
During the night of August 23rd-August 24th Russian forces launched at least 2 x Onix missiles, 6 x Kh-31p or 59 missiles, 143 x strike drones and at least 2 x Banderol loitering munitions. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 1 Onix, 2 cruise missiles, 2 Banderols, and 109 strike drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa and Sumy oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 26 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 6 towns.
Russian artillery struck 12 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
During the night of August 22nd-23rd Russian forces launched 127 x Strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 97 drones.
Damage was report din Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Sumy, and Zaporizhia oblasts.
During the night of August 21st-August 22nd Russian forces launched a number of ballistic missiles, 3 x Kh-31p or 59 missiles, 217 x strike drones and multiple x Banderol loitering munitions. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 3 cruise missiles, 6 Banderols, and 182 strike drones.
Damage was reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure.
Civilian casualties include at least 3 killed and 26 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 6 towns.
Russian artillery struck 12 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
During the night of August 20th-August 21st Russian forces launched 135 x strike drone into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed to brought down 107 drones.
Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Power outages were reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv Kherson and Sumy oblasts.
A drone struck a shopping mall in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing 16 civilians, and injuring 130.
During the night of August 19th-August 20th Russian forces launched at least 135 x strike drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed to have brought down 107 drones.
Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Targets included power, transport, logistics infrastructure. A power outage was reported in Sumy oblast. A Russian strike drone again hit a border crossing on the Ukrainian - Moldovan border.
Civilian casualties include at least 6 killed and 24 wounded.
RuAF tacair struck at least 4 towns.
Russian artillery struck 11 towns in cross-border strikes along Ukraine’s northern border of Chernihiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Economic Reporting
Feb22 May8 Jun8 Jul9 Aug7 Aug21 Aug24
Brent 94.71 100.50 93.82 77.93 81.75 94.34 93.08
WTI 92.10 94.91 90.59 73.11 76.66 87.28 85.45
NG 3.97 2.79 3.14 3.12 2.64 2.76 2.81
Wheat 8.52 6.14 5.82 6.06 6.35 6.96 7.00
Ruble 85 74.26 73.10 76.31 82.61 82.89 83.36
Hryvnia 28.6 43.90 44.64 44.51 44.73 44.69 44.64
Urals 91.66 92.56 86.33 57.80 79.19 88.85 85.87
ESPO 94.52 105.56 95.51 73.53 78.79 90.28 92.49
Sokol 99.31 95.96 89.90 71.56 77.42 88.42 89.63
Thoughts
The developments east of Slovyansk, and in the Kostiantinivka area, point back to one serious concern: despite the developments in drone warfare and efforts to interdict Russian GLOCs, the Ukrainian army has not found a way to stop the painfully slow Russian grind. Neither city has fallen - yet. But both cities are already very heavily damaged, as are all the towns around them, and the next few cities - Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, et al, are being struck daily by FPV drones, artillery and glide bombs, as well as being subject to daily recon probes and the first few efforts to infiltrate into these cities.
A note on Fedorov; in comments Zelenskyy made over the weekend it appears that the root of the Fedorov firing was that Fedorov wanted to place Gen Syrskyi and the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, under the Minister of Defense, giving the minister both the administrative (support) role and the operational role. Thus, the CINC would report to the Minister, not directly to the President, as it now stands. Both Syrskyi and Zelenskyy objected; Fedorov was fired, and then public pressure led to Syrskyi’s firing. Sysrskyi won, sort of. Arguably, Ukraine lost.
v/r pete
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