August 27th, 2026

Developments: Politics

There was a great deal of speculation as to CIA Director’s unannounced visit to Moscow, but President Trump appears to be tamping down the rumors.

“He’s there, you know, sort of as a matter of routine. I don’t want to disappoint people. John Ratcliffe is a fantastic guy. He’s the head of the CIA, and he is not in there for any of the things that you said. Now something may come out, you know, out of it. We’re working very hard to get that war ended, and frankly, they both want to see it ended at this point.”

Ratcliffe flew into Moscow on the 25th for a brief set of meetings.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal insists that anonymous sources (of course) who were briefed on Ratcliffe’s visit said that he was sent to deliver a specific message:

Do not attack any NATO country.

Earlier today the Russian Foreign Office appeared to threaten the UK following the announcement of the transfer of technology to Ukraine that would provide for the production of Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

“They [London and Paris]  are trying to dodge responsibility for deep strikes into Russia by shifting the assembly role to Ukraine. They should understand this is “playing with fire” and that the consequences could be unpredictable, including for them.” 

“We have repeatedly warned that any British military installations and equipment in Ukraine and beyond its borders could be targeted in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory carried out using British weapons. We propose that the British leadership once again carefully analyze the situation and immediately, in the most resolute and unequivocal manner, abandon the hostile, aggressive line, which can only ... create the risk of the conflict escalating to an entirely new level.”

Development: Combat Ops

Missile and drone strikes continue by both sides, and last night Ukrainian forces again hit the Lukoil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod.

At the same time, Russian strikes into Kherson Oblast have had a cumulative effect: during the evening of August 26th-August 27th Russian forces struck the Kherson Combined Heating and Power Plant (CHP) and apparently the CHP sustained significant damage.

Oleksandr Prokudin, head of Kherson Oblast, stated:

"Overnight, Russian forces again attacked the Kherson CHP with aerial bombs. Unfortunately, this is not the first time. But this time the facility sustained very serious damage.”

“Therefore, frankly, we can no longer count on the combined heat and power plant or other critical infrastructure facilities operating normally this winter…

So we must be honest: Kherson may be left without electricity and heating not for hours or days, but for an extended period.

“I again appeal to the residents of Kherson, especially families with children and elderly people: if you have the means, relatives or friends in safer regions – leave."

Since July 1st Kherson has been struck by 170 glide bombs, 1,700 strike drones, and, in the past week, 6,500 FPV drones.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces made gains in the terrain south-east of Borova, and have retaken terrain east of the Nitrous River, between Nove and Katerynivka. This is all well-tilled farmland, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed across farmland just north of Ridkodub and pushed southward, just west of Katerynivka. The open farmland only has a few tree lines to hide in; the key is to take and hold the towns and villages, the open land is of little consequence if you can’t take the surrounding towns. Ukrainian forces need to take the towns back. Russian forces will, obviously attempt to hold the towns. The terrain between the towns has proven to be very difficult to hold.

Ukrainian forces continue to hold the northern end of Kostiantinivka, but a Ukrainian army spokesman stated that they had withdrawn forces eastward across the Kryvyi Torets River (it runs basically south-east to north-west), ceding the west side of the city to Russian forces.

This leave Ukrainian forces with a solid hold only on the north end of the city and the north-west corner, as well as isolated elements scattered across the center of the city. Ukrainian forces acknowledged that Russian forces also took the two towns of Illinivka and Stepanivka, west of Kostiantinivka.

Drone notes

A Ukrainian brigade commander commented on FPV drone use and noted that in some cases it will take 10 drones to kill one Russian.

This has come up before; while there are hundreds of videos circulating on the internet showing a drone performing amazing feats (flying into widows, flying into bunkers, etc.) the bulk of the reporting has regularly shown that multiple drones are needed for every successful attack; this is true for both sides. At one point early this year one Ukrainian drone unit commander noted that in some cases, particularly when the Russians had jammers active, they might use 20 FPV drones to get one hit, and it would take 4 or 5 hits to disable a vehicle, in short, as many as 100 FPV drones to “kill” a vehicle.

Russia launched a satellite on the 24th, believed to be part of the Russet system (a copy of the Starlink system).

During the night of August 15th-16th Ukrainian missiles struck the Progress Space Center in Samara, and reporting now suggests that the strike severely damaged the Soyuz workshop, which would threaten the launch schedule of the Russet system.

Thoughts

The drone and missile strikes have become the most visible side of this war. Western press continues to report on the damages to Russian oil facilities and to warehouses. In the wake of several strikes on warehouses and oil facilities in the past few days, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry noted that they have caused some $45 billion in damage to the Russian economy - though the specifics aren’t clear.

Clearly, this is a non-trivial amount. But it is important to note that the Russian GDP for 2026 is expected to come in at $2.7 trillion. Meanwhile, Ukraine, with a GDP of $225 billion - more than half of which is grants or aid from outside the country - has suffered, per the World Bank, $195 billion in “direct physical damage," and will need $588 billion for “recovery and reconstruction.” Note that there are no comparable figures from the World Bank on Russia, just the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s numbers.

And in some cases, such as Kherson (see above), it is now becoming apparent that the cumulative damage is going to seriously impact Ukrainian citizens in the coming winter..

Meanwhile, the Russian grind on Kostiantinivka continues. The city will fall, there will be no swift follow-on as Russian forces are not trained or equipped for such things, but it points out again that the Ukrainian army is neither manned no equipped to stop the Russian army’s way of war.

v/r pete