November 13th, 2024

Ground Ops  - Russian gains in Kursk Salinet

- Russian gains north-west of Vuhledar

Air Ops - 110 drone strike

Weather

Winter has arrived it seems…

Kharkiv

36 and cloudy. Snow showers tonight and tomorrow; mostly cloudy Friday and Saturday morning, then party cloudy into next week. Daily lows will be in the low to mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

49 and cloudy.  Showers tonight; mostly cloudy into the weekend, daily lows in the low 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and mostly cloudy. Mostly cloudy into the weekend, light rain showers on Thursday, snow showers on Friday. Daily lows at or slightly above freezing, daily highs in the upper 30s but wind chills in the 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces made gains south-east of Korenevo (on the west side of the salient), near Pogrebki (on the north edge of the salient) and north-east of Subzha.

Elsewhere around the salient some reports continue to suggest Russian forces are moving additional assets to the Kursk salient, presumably to conduct a larger, more rapid assault and force the Ukrainian forces to withdraw, although the contrary argument is that there has been no substantial change in the overall manning around the salient and that these movements represent unit rotations. The North Korean forces all appear to be deploying to the Kursk salient.

Of interest, Ukrainian reporting noted a Russian mechanized “battalion” attacked the Ukrainian position south-east of Korenevo, with 29 armored vehicles. This equates to 2 mechanized companies (nominally 14-15 armored vehicles in mechanized company, or 10-11 tanks in an armored company), so, a “battalion minus;” reinforcing how this war has devolved into scores and scores of small unit engagements, rather than larger units.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both small salients but there were no changes reported to the front line.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continue to attack along essentially the entire line of contact, but there were no confirmed gains. However, pro-Russian blogs continue to report gains just east of Terny (just east of the Zherebets River) and Russian forces may have pushed into the town itself. 

Bakhmut

Russian forces continued attacking south-east of Siversk, and west of Bakhmut into Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed gains. 

West of Horlivka Russian forces continue to gain ground, engaged in a house-to-house, street-to-street grind through Toretsk. Imagery shows that Russian forces have reached Dzerzhynskoho Street in eastern Tortetsk and Druzhby Street in central Toretsk. Other reporting notes Russian forces active near Shcherbynivka, west of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to report that they were attacking, just east of Pokrovsk, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line in the Pokrovsk salient.

South-west of Donetsk Russian forces are pushing deeper into Kurakhove, and that Russian units are attempting to cross the Vovcha River just outside the town. The dam that formed the reservoir was damaged on Monday, though whether by artillery fire or a set charge isn’t clear. So far, some 700 million cubic feet of water (about 1/3rd of the reservoir) has spilled pas the dam, and there is a good deal of flooding of fields and detrimental affects on mobility, but no towns were reported as having flooded.

Further south, Russian forces continue to push north from the area west of Vuhledar and, in an unusual move for the Russians, appear to bypassing small settlements and continuing to move relatively swiftly to the north.]

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continues across souther Ukraine; there were no confirmed gains but Russian reports claim that in the last 48 hours Russian forces have made gains in several areas, to include having taken Rivnopil (just south-west of Velyka Novosilke (VN)), as well as Makariivka (just south of VN), and gained ground south-east of Hulyaipole (near Marfopil).

While not confirmed with imagery, Ukrainian blogs are also reporting this, giving credence to the reports. At the same time, there is speculation that the uncreased Russian activity along the southern front is at least in part an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from redeploying to the eastern front.

Probes and artillery fire were reported along the Dnepr River but there were no confirmed changes along the line of contact.

Air Operations

Russian forces continue their sustained air operations against Ukrainian infrastructure. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reports that there were more than 2,000 drone launches alone during October. Of note, 1/2 were assessed as decoys with the sole purpose of drawing fire from Ukrainian air defense assets.

On the night of 11-12 November Russian forces launched 1 x S-300 ballistic missile, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, an undetermined number of stand-off glide bombs, and 110 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 46 drones and 60 other drones were “lost,” (brought down by electronic warfare).

The US formally opened the AEGIS Ashore missile defense site in Redzikowo, Poland today. The facility includes a SPY-1 radar, the initial deployment was to include 10 x SM-3 interceptor missiles. The site is located at the Redzikowo airfield, just east of the town of Stupsk, a few miles from the Baltic Sea, about 60 miles west of Gdansk.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Nov13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 71.92

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.11

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 2.99

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.52

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 98.64

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.33

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.01

ESPO 65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.57

Thoughts

Both the Financial Times and General Syrskyi, Ukrainian Army Commander in Chief, discussed the approach of Trump’s presidency; the Financial Times offers the obvious analysis: this is the crucial time for Ukraine to strengthen its positions for an optimum bargaining position, and General Syrski suggests that the Ukrainian army is facing an increasingly tough fight as Russian forces seek to expand their holdings and thereby improve their bargaining position.

The Financial Times commented that: 

"Military officials, soldiers and analysts see the next few months as a critical phase in the war, with Ukraine attempting to stabilize defenses and strengthen its position in case the incoming U.S. president forces it to negotiate with Moscow. Kyiv expects the offensive to accelerate, and a Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that more medical personnel are being sent to the eastern front in anticipation of heavy fighting in the coming days and weeks, "especially in the south and east," the report said.

Serious fighting is also expected in the Kursk Oblast, part of which Ukraine seized during a surprise invasion in August. In a new attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian military, Russia has withdrawn about 50,000 soldiers, including from North Korea, to the Kursk Oblast. But if Ukraine can stop Russia's offensive and seize the initiative on the front before Trump takes office on January 20, to convince him of his ability to fight the aggressor and gain support.”

At the same time, Gen. Syrskyi commented that Russian forces “trying to dislodge Ukrainian troops from Kursk.”

Syrskyi continues to assert that the thrust into Kursk forced the Russians to redeploy forces from Donbas and Luhansk.

Syrskyi’s comment on redeployment if a bit of a head-fake. The stated purpose of the thrust into Russian territory was to force the Russians to redeploy enough forces that the offensives further south would come to a halt. But the attacks have not stopped. In fact, since the fall of Vuhledar they appear to have accelerated south of the Pokrovsk salient. And the current Russian movement, pushing northward from just west of Vuhledar, in sync with the drive west through Kurakhove (south-west of Donetsk) may cut off that entire square of and south of the Pokrovsk salient at very low cost to the Russians - just as they “prepare” for negotiations.

Nevertheless, the Financial Times point, noted by others as well, is valid: there is going to be a change in situation in the near term - January - and, as in a grand game of poker, bluffs, negotiations, and what cards each side are holding will determine he outcome. What they are fighting for right now is to improve the cards they hold, and there is likely to be a surge in offensive operations by both sides as they try to get those “better cards.”

v/r pete