November 21st, 2024 Next Summary November 25th

Missile Launch  - Ballistic Missile Strike

Ground Ops  - Russian gains in Kursk salient

- Russian gains in south of Kupyansk

Weather

Kharkiv

50 and rain, gusting over 40. Cloudy to partly cloudy for the next week, rain on Saturday. Saturday will see temperatures in the 50s, but the rest of the week will see highs around 30 and lows in the low 20s, wind chill high teens to 20. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

49 and rain, gusting over 30. Mostly cloudy for the next week, rain on Saturday. Tomorrow's low below freezing, then temperatures climb through Saturday afternoon, high in the 60s, then fall into the low 30s by Sunday morning. Next week daily lows will be around 30, daily highs will be in the mid 30s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Kyiv

33 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Rain - snow mix Friday afternoon and evening, followed by 5 days of party to mostly cloudy weather. Temperatures dropping today; daily lows for the next week will be in the 20s, daily highs in the low 30s; wind chills will drop below 20. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ballistic Missile Strike

Russian forces launched a ballistic missile from the Astrakhan oblast into Dnipropetrovsk, as well as 5 or 6 other missiles. The missile in question appears to have flown a distance of less than 1,000 KM / 625 miles. The Ukrainians insist it was an ICBM, which ounce an age the RS-26 is, the Russian say it was not an ICBM.

The missile struck an “infrastructure target” per the Russians, the city proper say the Ukrainians, with what appears to be 4 inert reentry vehicles (RV), and probably the RV “bus” (the platform that controls the precise release of the RVs for accurate targeting), and the post-boost vehicle (the rocket pack that pushes the "bus."

The initial assessment was that the missile, launched out of Kapustin Yar (about 500 miles from Dnipropetrovsk) was an RS-26 (NATO designation SS-31), nick name is the Russian name (Rubezh, or “frontier). It is a solid propellant, road mobile missile, weighs 80,000 lbs, has a maximum range of 3,600 miles (5,800 KM). This range exceeds the limits of the INF treaty, which limits intermediate range missiles to 5500. Missiles with ranges greater than 5500km are counted as ICBMs and are, therefore, covered under, and limited, until the START treaties.

Later, President Putin claimed it was no and RS-26 but a new missile, never seen before, an Oreshnik, delivering hypersonic vehicles. 

The strike also include 1 x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and 7 x Kh-101 cruise missiles; the UAF claimed it shot down 6 x Kh-101 missiles.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces gained ground south-east and east of Korenevo and appear to have swept through the Olgovka forest, east of Korenevo, and closed the pocket to the north of that position. Whether there were any Ukrainian troops left in that pocket is not clear, but the lack of reporting suggests that the Ukrainian elements had already withdrawn, else there would be a great deal of Russian propaganda.

The Kursk salient is now about 1/2 the size it was at its maximum extent.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported north of Kharkiv but there were no noted changes in either small salient.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces continue to apply pressure on the north-east edge of Kupyansk but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Further south, however, Russian forces reportedly advanced to the north and south along the eastern banks of the Oskil River, pushing north towards Hlushkivka, and pushing south through Kruhlyakivka and entering Zahryzove.

Fighting was also reported further south, along the Zherebets and west of Kreminna, but there were no confirmed changes to the line of contact. 

Bakhmut

There was no significant reporting from the area north and north-east of Bakhmut.

In the Chasiv Yar area Russian forces made some small, confirmed gains both north of Chasiv Yar and to the south-east of Chasiv Yar and Russian forces are now well advanced west of the Donets canal both and slowly grinding westward.

Further south, Russian forces are confirmed to have moved further into Toretsk with lines of advance well into the center of the city, a southern pincer moving past the city centers and another drive moving in from the north-east. 

Donetsk City

Ukrainian forces regained control of some trenches east of Pokrovsk, just south of the town of Mykolaivka, but to the south of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue to push west and have pushed more than 4 miles west of Selydove, reaching the small towns of Pushkine and Pustynka, and also reached Novodmytrivka, 6 miles to the the south-west of Selydove.

Further south, the salient north of Kurakhove (south of the Pokrovsk salient) has effectively been closed. Russian forces still only control half of the northern edge of the Kurakhove reservoir and have not advanced any further in Kurakhove itself.

Further south, Russian forces between Vuhledar and Kurakhove continue to press west and north-west and north. There are repeated reports of Russian gains but little has been confirmed.  Still, the reporting from the more accurate Ukrainian blogs shows the Ukrainian controlled pocket north of Vodyane continues to shank in size as the Russians press forward, and the north-west  corner of the “Vuhledar rectangle” now appears to be less than 4 miles from Bahatyr. Russian forces have control of all but a slice of the land south of the N-15 roadway and east of the T0518 roadway that runs north-north-east out of Velyka Novosilke

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continues across the south but here were no confirmed gains or losses along the front line. 

Air and Missile Operations 

Ukraine conducted a drone and missile and drone strike into Russia during the night of 19-20 November, using 12 x Storm Shadow missiles to strike near Marino, in the Kursk Oblast. The target is beloved to be Baryatinsky Estate, what is believed to be a Combined Russian - North Korean command post.

The damage assessment: killed 1 Russian general office, 2 North Korean officers - ranks unknown, and 18 other soldiers. 

At the same time, Ukrainian forces launched drones against multiple Russian targets. Russian air defense forces claimed they shot down 44 drones of various types, while Ukrainian forces claimed to have hit an ammo dump near Kotovo, near Novogorod, estimated to be a storage facility for a wide range of Russian battlefield and tactical ballistic missiles.

On the night of 19-20 November Russian forces launched 1 x S-300 ballistic missile, 5 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 122 x Shahed drones in Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 cruise missiles and 56 drones; that 58 other drones were “lost” (taken down by electronic warfare), that 5 drones retuned to Russia and 1 drone flew into Belarus.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Nov20 Nov21

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.78 73.85

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 69.15 69.83

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.41

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.68 5.72

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.51 100.96

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.33 41.28

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.77 67.68

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 66.75 66.50

Thoughts

First, a definition: an ICBM (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile) is called an ICBM by agreed definition, for the purposes of treaties. An ICBM is a ballistic missile with a range greater than 5,500 kilometers (3,400 miles). If the missile fired out of Kapustin Yar at Dnipropetrovsk was an RS-26, it is an ICBM because the RS-26 has flown 5,800 KM in a test launch. You can call it something else, you can call it a can of red beans. But once it has flown more than 5,500 KM, it’s an ICBM.

Russia now says it’s an “Oreshnik” missile - a brand new missile. Since no one in the west saw the actual missile that was launched out of Kapustin Yar, we don’t know what it was. But it was a nice demonstration of Russian rockets.

President Putin says it was a hypersonic weapon.

Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t; the strict technical definition of a hypersonic vehicle is one that is flying above Mach 5. The useful definition is one that reaches an altitude of perhaps 30 - 60 miles, that is, in the atmosphere, then flies parallel to the earth’s service, at a speed above Mach 5. Ballistic missile reentry vehicles often pass through the atmosphere at speeds above Mach 5 but that really doesn’t make them hypersonic vehicles.

The Kinzhal reenters the earth’s atmosphere at speeds in excess of Mach 5 but doesn’t really fly, it is just pointed at the ground. They call it a hypersonic vehicle, but it really isn’t, it’s just going really fast.

So, what we have here is Russia demonstrating that they have big rockets that can fly a long range. 

It is worth noting that Herman Kahn wrote a book in 1965, “On Escalation.” In the book he discussed a hypothetical “escalation ladder” the first rung of which was espionage and the 25th rung - at the top - was salvo exchanges of nuclear weapons between the US and the USSR - an all-out nuclear war. Events are not quite mirroring Khan’s ladder (but close enough to be disturbing. Rung 15 is “symbolic demonstration of strategic nuclear weapons. The launch of the SS-31 or Oreshnik would seem to fit that description. It’s of note that in Khan’s ladder, rung 14 was 1st use of a battlefield nuclear weapon. Is Putin maybe considering the use of nuclear weapons? The idea appears to have crossed his mind. He certainly wants the west to think about it.

Whatever you want to call it, this represents an escalation, and a serious one. This doesn’t mean that the west should simply freeze up and do nothing. But the seemingly casual dismissal out of hand that “Putin has no intention of using nuclear weapons” doesn’t seem like the right answer either.

v/r pete