November 20th, 2024

Ground Ops  - Russian gains in Kursk salient

- Russian gains in south of Kupyansk

Air Operations - Minimal damage apparently on first ATACMS strike into Russia

Aid - New packages announced by Germany and US

Weather

Kharkiv

48 and cloudy, gusting near 20. Rain and windy tomorrow, temperatures in the 50s, then dips into the 30s and briefly clear on Friday, warms Friday and Saturday with more rain (into the 50s) and then by Sunday morning lows will be in the 20s, and highs in the 30s for a week or more. Winds variable 10-15kts, except tomorrow, with sustained winds from the south at 25.

Melitopol

50 and partly cloudy, gusting over 30. Rain tonight, tomorrow and again on Saturday.  Mostly cloudy for the next week. Tomorrow highs near 60 but dropping later in the afternoon and will reach 30 by Friday morning. Then heating up again, into the 50s on Saturday, but then drops once more and all next week daily lows will be in the 20s, daily highs in the 30s. Winds variable, 10-20kts.

Kyiv

50 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Rain - snow later tonight, continues into Thursday, then starts again Friday afternoon. Mostly cloudy for the next week. Temperatures dropping tonight; for the next week daily lows will be below freezing, wind chills will drop below 20. Daily highs will be in the mid to upper 30s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Russian forces continue to advance south-east of Korenevo, and imagery confirmed Russian gains near the town of Nizhny Klin. Further gains were reported due east of Korenevo, but were not confirmed. Russian bloggers are reporting that Ukrainian troops in the small forest due east of Korenevo (a forest that is perhaps 1.2 x 1.2 miles in size) are on the verge of being circled, and are trying to break out, and the Russian MinDef is claiming that Russian forces are already clearing it out, but this has not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Due north of Kharkiv, just south-east of Hlyboke, imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had advanced into the small woods in that area. Russian forces continued offensive operations in both small salients, but there were no confirmed gains.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along the entire line of contact, but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side. Russian forces still hold a thin slice of eastern Kupyansk and continue to press on Ukrainian positions.

Further south, Russian forces appear to have solidified their hold along the Oskil Kruhlyakivka and are trying to press south. They now control a bit more than 3 miles of the river bank on the east side, and have pressed south past the bridge to Senkove (the bridge is down), and are trying to push into Kolesnykivka - the next town to the south.

Bakhmut

There were no changes noted north or north-east of Bakhmut.

Russian sources claimed some small gains in Chasiv Yar, but these were not confirmed by imagery. Ukrainian sources are reporting that Russian forces gained some ground immediately east of Stupochky, but this has also not been confirmed.

There were also no confirmed gains west of Horlvika, in and around Toretsk. Russian reporting however, suggests Russian forces may have pushed one or two streets further into central Toretsk. At the same time, it appears that the Russian forces are working to develop a pincer on Ukrainian positions to the north-east, attacking Ukrainian positions in Krymske from east and south. Fighting across the Toretsk area is said to be “very heavy.”

Donetsk City

Russian forces remains on the attack along the western and southern perimeters of the Pokrovsk salient but there were no confirmed gains. Reporting does suggest some marginal gains west of Selydove and elements of a Russian rifle regiment, operating west of Selydove, appear to be within about 1 mile of Zhovte, which, if accurate, places them about 5 miles due south of Pokrovsk.

  What appears to be hard fighting continues around the Kurakhove reservoir but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Further south, in the area north and west of Vuhledar the fighting continues but there were no reports of gains or losses by either side. One fairly reliable blog - map does however reflect the north-west corner of the Russian forces pushing further to the north-west, with Russian elements now just 3 miles Bahatyr.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continues south-west and south-east of Orikhiv as Russian forces continue to apply pressure on the towns along the T0812 and T0815 roadways. Further east, Imagery confirmed that Russian forces had seized Rivnopil, south-west of Velyka Novosilke, by some time before 19 November. Skirmishes and exchange of fire were reported along the Dnepr, but there were no changes along the Dnepr, and there are no Ukrainian elements on the east bank.

Air Operations

On the 19th the UAF launched 12 Storm Shadow missile into Russian air space but there is no report yet as to the target or the results.

Russian air defense assets claimed they shot down 44 Ukrainian drones last night. No word on how many drones were launched into Russian air space.

On the night of 18-19 November Russian forces launched 87 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 51 drones, and 30 drones were “lost” (defeated by electronic warfare systems). 2 drones were reported to have struck an apartment building in Hlukhiv, about 50 miles north-west of Sumy, killing 12 and wounding 11.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) damage assessment on the November 18-19 ATACMS strike into Russia begins with noting that there was a single initial detonation (presumably an ATACMS warhead) followed by 12 secondary explosions. This would suggest one ATACMS made it through the air defense system. The initial reports yesterday morning had noted “6 ATACMS" fired, later reports suggest perhaps 8 had been fired, with the UGS suggesting that the Russians had shot down 2, while the Russians claimed they had shot down 5 and damaged 1. 

The Russians also claimed that there were small fires but no casualties and no significant damage. It is not clear at this point that the facility suffered any damage.

It would seem in this case that the Russian claim was closer to the truth. 

Of note, Josep Borell, the EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy stated that the US authorization for the use of US weapons in Russia stipulates that the Ukrainians strike no deeper than 300 KM into Russia. ATACMS has a maximum range of 300km (190 miles). The AGM-158 JASSM has a maximum range of 370KM (230 miles). Given that the AGM-158 is launched off an aircraft and there would be a buffer zone to keep aircraft from crossing the border (and entering into Russian surface-to-air missile engagement zones), a launch aircraft would be perhaps 20-30 miles back form the border at launch point. Said otherwise, the US limit will, at this point have little practical impact.

Aid 

Germany and the US both announced new military aid packages for Ukraine

The German package will include:

• 47 mine-resistant and ambush-resistant vehicles (MRAP)
• 4 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers with spare parts
• 1 TRML-4D air surveillance radar
• 41,000 x 155 mm artillery shells
• 7 x M109 barrels
• 8 x Caracal assault vehicles
• 8 x combat engineer vehicles of different types
• 314 x reconnaissance drones of various types, with spare parts
• 26 other vehicle 
• 340 x HLR 338 sniper rifles and 74,000 rounds of ammo
• 8,000 x 40 mm grenades
• 100,000 rounds small arms ammo
• 100,000 occlusive dressings.

The US package, worth $275 million, will include:

• HIMARS ammo
• 155 and 105 artillery ammo
• mortar shells
• drones
• anti-tank weapons
• TOW anti-tank missile launchers
• small arms with ammo
• EOD equipment
• NBC gear

President Biden has also approved the transfer of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. This has been widely condemned by a number of NGOs that oppose the use of anti-personnel mines for any reason.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Nov19 Nov20

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 73.05 72.78

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.68 69.15

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 2.97 3.17

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.66 5.68

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.47 100.51

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.28 41.33

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.80 67.77

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 66.84 66.75

Thoughts

A few interesting statistics cornering the Donetsk Region and combat operations in the past several months: Between days 300 and 1000 of the war (the 19th of November) the Russians have captured 2,276 sq. km of Donetsk. Since August 1st, the start of the Kursk incursion, the Russians have captured  1,500 sq km of Donetsk. Between days 300 and 900 of the war Russian forces captured 776 sq km of Donetsk.

Further, Russian gains place them on the cusp of breaking through the last Ukrainian prepared defensive lines in the general area between Bakhmut and Donetsk. If they break through those defenses in the next several. Months there will be few defensive lines that the Ukrainian army can use to slow the Russian advance. 

At the same time, while there the Ukrainian General Staff claims massive Russian losses, the neutral (and even pro-Ukrainian, non-government) tracking of Russian casualties suggest that Russian casualties remain in roughly the 75 - 100 KIA per day, 300 WIA per day range, a number that is probably lower than overall Ukrainian daily casualty rates. 

Seen in that light, the Kursk incursion has been expansive to Ukraine and probably a substantial loss.

v/r pete