Friday, November 15, 2024

 November 15th, 2024 Next Summary 19 November


Ground Ops  - Russian gains in south-east

- Russian gains along Oskil

Politics - Scholz and Putin talk

Weather


Kharkiv

33 and cloudy. Snow showers tonight; partly cloudy through the weekend, cloudy and rain-snow showers possible next week. Daily lows will be in the low to mid 30s, daily highs in the upper 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Melitopol

38 and cloudy.  Partly cloudy starting tomorrow and into next week. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.


Kyiv

36 and cloudy, gusting to 25. Except for a sunny Sunday, cloudy for the next week, with rain-snow expected at the end of next week. Daily lows in the mod 30s, daily highs in the low 40s, but wind chills in the 20s next week. Winds variable, 10-15kts.


Ground Operations


Kursk Salient


Russian forces made some small gains south-east of Korenevo, east of Korenevo and north of Malaya Loknya, and continued to attack elsewhere, but there were no confirmed gains in the salient. Further west, Russian forces made some gains just east of Novy Put.


North of Kharkiv


Fighting continues in both small salients north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain. Poor weather and low clouds are reportedly affecting the use of both reconnaissance and strike drones by both sides.


North of the Donets River


Fighting continues along the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

Russian claims to have entered north-east Kupyansk appear to be true, but at the same time it appears that Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and pushed them back. The Ukrainian blog and web site “Deep State” (which is fairly conservative in posting Russian gains) holds the Russian line about a mile up the road to Lyman Pershyi from the last cluster of houses in north-east Kupyansk. It appears that the Russian forces fell back into a small wooded area just north of manicured fields and are holding at the tree line.

Further south, there has been no additional reporting but Ukrainian bloggers are showing Russian forces west of Pishchane as having slightly expanded their holdings along the Oskil River and now have the east bank from the north side of the road that runs east out of Senkove (the town of Kruhliakivka), north to the woods (just south of Hlushkivka about 1 mile), appearing to have stopped at the northern end of the small woods just south of that town.


Bakhmut


North of Bakhmut Russian sources report gains south of Siversk, but these have not been confirmed.

Additional reports claim Russian gains east and north-east of Chasiv Yar, as well as south-east of Chasiv Yar (east of Stupochky), but these gains have not been confirmed.

Imagery did confirm Russian gains east of Bila Hora (south of Chasiv Yar, west of Kurdiumivka), about a mile-and-a-half west of the Donets Canal.

Still further south, west of Horlivka, fighting continues in Toretsk but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.


Donetsk City


Russian forces remain on the attack east of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed gains in the west end of the Pokrovsk salient. Fighting was, however reported along essentially the entire west and south perimeters of the salient.

South of the salient there have also been no confirmed advances. However, fighting continues along virtually all the front line and there are unconfirmed gains along most of the line of contact from the north side of the Kurakhove reservoir, south and across a major portion of the front line across southern Ukraine. On the north side of the reservoir Russian forces appear to control most of the small town of Illinka and there are reports that Russian forces now control more than than 2/3rd of the northern border of the reservoir.

South of the reservoir Russian forces are attacking into Kurakhove and have pushed the line west to the town of Dalnie. Dalnie now represents the north-west end of a pocket the Russians have formed with a southern border that extends from Katerynivka in the south-east, about 16 miles to the west-north-west, to a point about 8 miles north of Zolota Nyva. Some reports suggest that the Russian forces north of Zolota Nyv may have already pushed as far as as another 2 miles to the north-north-west and are now just a little more than a mile from the H15 roadway, south-east of Bahatyr. Bahatyr is about 20 miles south—south-west of Pokrovsk. And, just to the south and west (just south of the town of Rozdolne), reporting suggests the Russians may have pushed to within 1 mile of the T-0518 roadway that runs from Velyka Novosilke northward to intersect the H-15 roadway.


Southern Ukraine


West of Velyka Novosilke Russian forces appear to be gaining ground. Russian forces were confirmed to have taken Rivnopil and Levadne (just west-south-west of Velyka Novosilke), and appear to control part or most of Makariivka (just south of Velyka Novosilke). When considered in addition to the Russian gains east and north-east of Velyka Novosilke, there is reason for the Ukrainian army to worry about a possible encirclement of Velyka Novosilke.

Further west there are reports of Russian gains near Hulyaipole and further west but these have not been confirmed, and so far are not reflected as any substantive gains in the various blogger maps.


Air Operations and Technology


Russian missiles and drones struck heating and power facilities in Odessa this afternoon, killing at least 1 person and wounding 8.


One or more Russians sources are reporting that North Korean has sold an unknown number of “Koksan" guns to Russia. Korean is the US name; it is known as the Chuche’Po to the North Koreans; Chuche (or Juche) is the North Korean Marxist - derived - political philosophy of “self reliance,” Chuch’e Po is Chuche gun. The gun is a self-propelled, 170MM, 50 caliber howitzer with a 43KM maximum range with conventional ammunition and a 60KM range with a rocket assisted projectile.


Politics and Diplomacy


Chancellor Scholz and President Putin spoke today, their first conversation in more than 2 years; the conversation had been planned since well before the US election.

Chancellor Scholz, who spoke with President Zelenskyy prior to speaking to Putin, condemned Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure (the power grid) and commented that the presence of North Korean troops was a serious escalation of the war.

The Chancellor’s spokesman noted that:

"The Federal Chancellor insisted that Russia must be ready to negotiate with Ukraine to achieve a just and lasting peace, emphasizing Germany's unwavering determination to support Ukraine in the peace process.”

President Putin was quoted as saying: "Possible agreements should take into account Russia’s interests in the security sphere, proceed from the new territorial realities and, above all, eliminate the causes of the conflict.”

The Kremlin also noted that:

"As for the prospects for a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict, the Russian president noted that the Russian side has never refused and remains open to the resumption of the negotiations that were interrupted by the Kiev regime. Russia's proposals are well known and outlined, in particular, in a June speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry.”


President Zelenskyy commented, after his conversation with Scholz:

"On one of today's news. Chancellor Scholz informed me that he was going to call Putin. Olaf's call, I believe, opens Pandora's box. There may now be other talks or calls. Just a lot of words.

“And this is exactly what Putin has always desired: it is critical for him to weaken his isolation, as well as Russia's isolation, and to engage in routine conversations that will yield no results. He'd been doing it this way for decades. This allowed Russia to avoid changing its strategy or doing anything at all, which is what led to this war.

“We now understand all of these problems. We understand how to act. And we want to be clear: Minsk-3 will not happen; we need real peace.”


Later, Defense Minister Umerov commented that:

"Territorial integrity is part of our values. Our priority, as before, is the protection of people, the protection of the nation, the liberation of people from almost 10 years of temporary occupation, which is why Crimea and Donbas are part of Ukraine.”


Meanwhile, President Elect Trump commented:

"We’re going to work very hard on Russia and Ukraine. It’s gotta stop. Russia and Ukraine’s gotta stop.” He expressed regret for all the deaths: “…whether they’re soldiers or they’re people sitting in towns…We’re going to work it.”

He said that he would talk to Zelenskyy:

”Enough is enough; you have to make a deal.”

But he would tell Putin that the US was prepared to provide Ukraine with more weapons than it has received so far if Russia is not willing to make a deal.


Aid


The US will transfer the remaining $7.1 billion in aid to Ukraine before the end of President Biden’s term.


A poll conducted this week by the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences reports that 83 of Russians held that the war in Ukraine (the "Special Military Operation” as the Russians refer to it) did not affect their life or affected it only a slight amount.


Economic Reporting


Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Nov14 Nov15

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.93 72.41

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 69.08 68.62

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 2.97 2.71


Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.41 5.48

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 99.49 99.59

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.21 41.31

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.31 66.84

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.29 65.22


Thoughts


The Ukrainian position in the south-east, from the Vuhledar to Velyka Novosilke area northward to the Pokrovsk salient is looking increasingly difficult for the Ukrainians. The poor weather (low cloud cover and poor visibility) has made the use of drones difficult and freed up Russian use of vehicles; the relatively low amounts of rain so far this fall has left more roads passable, allowing the Russians to move more troops forward more quickly. At the same time there seems to be fewer Ukrainian reserve forces to fill gaps and slow Russian advances. 

Several points seem to jump out at me: the Russians seem to be exploiting the terrain and weather conditions better than the Ukrainians, using the dry weather and dry roads, as well as the reduced presence of Ukrainian surveillance drones to push forward.  The Ukrainian forces don’t appear to be coordinating well between adjacent units - Russian forces push forward and there are few attacks on their flanks as they press forward. That may also be a function of the reports as well as a function of manpower shortages on the Ukrainian side, so I may be hasty in making this assessment.

Even though the Russians are moving faster than they have and therefore must be moving ammunition and fuel dumps, and forces, forward, there seem to be very few reports of Russian tactical ammunition dumps, fuel dumps and command posts being struck by precision fires; while this may be the result of one thing, I would guess this is a factor of better dispersals, better camouflage, better jamming of incoming rounds, and ammunition availability for the Ukrainians which collectively reduce the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strike assets.

Overall, if the Russians in the south-east have in fact pushed as far north and west as it appears, there is an increasing likelihood that Ukrainian forces at the east end of that pocket will have difficulty extracting themselves, assuming they are allowed to withdraw. This could result in another tactical defeat, and leave more holes in the Ukrainian line in the south and east. 

The Ukrainians will want to close the holes and slow the Russians until the weather slows, and perhaps stops, the Russian advance. The Russians will want to keep pushing troops - strategic reserves - forward to exploit the advances in the south-east and along the Oskil.


v/r pete


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