November 29th, 2024

Military Situation  - Some Russian Gains

- Syrskyi commits reserves

Air Operations  - Large Strike

Corruption

Peace Plan

Thoughts - Manpower

Military Situation 

On the ground there was little change over the past 48 hours, with small gains by the Russian forces in the center; southeast of Pokrovsk and along a broad front west of Selydove, perhaps 6-8 miles north to south). Russian forces in this area, starting about 4 miles south pf Pokrovsk, are now a bit west of Pokrovsk and still pushing west.

Russian forces also showed gains both inside the town of Kurakhove, where Russian forces may control much as 2/3rd of the town, and north of the reservoir where Russian forces pushed into Berestky.

Russian forces continue to close up pockets and straighten lines.

What is of note here is the announcement that Gen. Syrskyi has pushed the reserve forces into the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fight; this is the right place to commit the reserves, the question being whether he has committed them in time to stop the Russian advance.

In additionally, Syrskyi ordered additional ammunition pushed into the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fights.

Air Operations

Russian forces conducted a large strike against Ukraine’s power grid on the 27th, launching a total of 190 missiles and drones into Ukrainian air space, including 62 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 28 x Kaliber cruise missiles and 100 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down more than 100 missiles and drones, including 76 drones. An unreported number were also brought down by electronic warfare (EW).

However, multiple strikes on the power grid were reported and more than 1 million houses in the Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts were left without electricity. Temperatures across Ukraine remained below 35 all day Thursday and remain in the low 30s, dropping below 30 at night.

Prime Minister Shmyhal commented that it was not possible to say when everyone would have power restored.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone and missile strike against Crimean targets on the 27th, with a combination of Neptune cruise missiles, S-200 ballistic missiles, Storm Shadow missiles and 40 x strike drones. The RuAF claimed it shot down 25 drones, and claimed that the strike targeted a Russian naval school in Sevastopol, but then claimed it had not been hit.

On the previous night Russian forces had launched 89 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace and the UAF had shot down 36 drones and 48 drones were lost (defeated by EW), however several did get past the air defenses and damaged the power grid.

Corruption

Sinclair & Wilde, a US “strategic advisory” firm, is accusing the National Police of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Defense, of corruption following the failure to pay a contract to supply military uniforms unit a bribe had been paid.

In a letter the firm said:

"Sinclair & Wilde categorically denies the false and baseless claims made in the recently released video by the National Police Force of Ukraine. It is clear that the release of this story is an attempt by the National Police Force to cover up its own internal corruption and the corruption of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in its continued attempts to deny payment to Sinclair & Wilde after it repeatedly refused to pay bribes requested of it.”

Sinclair & Wilde had 5 contracts to provide uniforms to the Ministry of Defense, for a total of $14.5 million. Sinclair & Wilde claim that:

"Throughout 2023, multiple individuals – including subjects of US and Ukrainian investigations – solicited bribes from Sinclair & Wilde to secure payment of the remaining $14.5 million owed to it. Sinclair & Wilde refused and reported these solicitations to US and Ukrainian authorities. In an attempt to obey the laws of both the United States and Ukraine, Sinclair & Wilde brought the solicitation of bribes and apparent MOD corruption to the attention of US Embassy in Kyiv, US law enforcement, and Ukrainian law enforcement authorities over one year ago.”

"The response of the National Police Force of Ukraine was to leak the details of the investigation to Maksim Hrytsenko, former Head of Procurement for the Ministry of Defense, and others, putting the lives of cooperating witnesses at risk in the process, one of whom is an American Citizen. And within days of a confidential meeting with the National Police, Roman Balykin – a supposed target of the current investigation – knew all of the details of the meeting. As a result, US authorities have refused to continue working with the National Police.”

Sinclair & Wilde added:

"Law enforcement organizations and defense officials have examined the uniforms and found the prices charged by Sinclair & Wilde to be BELOW fair market value, particularly when you account for the costs associated with shipping and logistics.”

What is of note is that this is one of the first corruption charges that has progressed to public accusations by the firm involved.

Peace Plan

A general peace plan seems to be taking place, and looks much as has been discussed over the past 2 years. To negotiate the plan President Elect Trump has named LtGen. Keith Kellogg, USA (Ret.); Kellogg commanded the 82nd Airborne Division and was national security advisor to Vice President Pence for almost 3 years.

It is important to note that a Gallup poll conducted earlier this month showed that 52% of Ukrainians are now willing to concede some land to Russia to reach a negotiated end to the war. (38% do not want to cede land, and 10% are unsure.)

The apparent plan (to start the negotiations) appears to consist of:

- a ceasefire; US would continue to provide weapons and training to Ukraine. Future aid, would hover, be contingent upon Ukraine agreeing to participate in the peace process.

- NATO membership for Ukrainian would be held in abeyance.

- Russian oil and gas sales would be taxed to fund rebuilding of Ukraine.

- Russia would be offered sanctions relief, provided they signed a peace agreement with Ukraine.

Politics

Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Control Oleg Morozov announced on November 27 that Russia Defense Industrial Base (DIB) faces a shortage of 400,000 engineering specialists in the next several years.

In June of this year Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov stated that the DIB shortage was already 160,000.

Thoughts - Manpower 

Russian losses, per Mediazone - the most comprehensive data base on Russian casualties - now stand at 80,973 Killed. They estimate the number may be as high as 120,000 KIA.

Of note, 18% of Russian casualties are convicts (15,000+ KIA)

There are no hard figures for wounded, but the estimate is that there are 3.5 to 4 wounded for every KIA (that ratio is believed to be roughly correct for both sides).

This place total Russian casualties at:

• 81,000 - KIA, 285,000 WIA, Total 366,000 to 120,000 KIA, 480,000 WIA, 600,000 total. Russia has had 9,000 desertions as well.

Ukrainian casualties from independent sources are not as diligently tracked as are Russian casualties, but counts on graves, and anecdotal reporting suggests it is higher than the figures released by Kyiv, London or Washington DC. Estimates run between 

105,000 and 160,000 KIA. Using the same ratios for KIA to WIA, this places total Ukrainian casualties at:

• 105,000 - KIA, 365,000 WIA, 470,000 total to 160,000 KIA, 640,000 WIA, 800,000

Total. Ukraine, as discussed below has between 100,000 and 200,000 desertions (see below).

Ukraine, of course, has a population just 1/4th of Russia’s.

There are new figures on desertions in the Ukrainian military. As you may or may not recall, in the middle of October there was reporting that desertions in the Ukrainian army were approaching 100,000 men. One Ukrainian legislator now suggests that the number is closer to 200,000, commenting that many men go home on leave, particularly medical leave, and simply do not return.

One account of the fall of the town of Vuhledar in south-eastern Ukraine, centers around the 72nd Brigade, which was the main unit holding the town. The brigade had one armored battalion and two infantry battalions, each with - on paper - 3 or 4 companies with 120 troops in each. But some companies had fewer than 10 troops left. Reportedly 20% of the soldiers in the brigade were AWOL. And when reinforcements were sent forward, they deserted as well.

Interestingly, there are several lawyers who have specialized in defending those accused of desertion, the defense being innocent due to psychological stress.     

In a statement that seems as if it came straight out of “Catch 22,” one of the lawyers, Tetyana Ivanova, noted, acquittals for this reason sets a troubling precedent  because “then almost everyone is justified (to leave), because there are almost no healthy people left (in the infantry).”

Which leads around to an observation by one of my astute readers:

While both sides have suffered heavy and about equal casualties, their armies have very different compositions.  The Russian army is made up of volunteers and mercenaries.  The Ukrainian army is made up of unwilling middle-aged conscripts, often press-ganged.  Not only does Russia have a much bigger manpower base but they're putting far less strain on it.

Where that leaves Ukraine is in a scary situation. As has been evident over the last several months, the Russian army is steadily “chewing out” gains. There is a real sense that the Ukrainian line, particularly in the south-east, is under great strain - as demonstrated by Gen. Syrskyi flowing the reserves to Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. If the line holds, then he acted soon enough. If the line doesn’t hold, are there any more reserve forces to move into position and hold the line? 

It also suggests that, if the above is roughly accurate, and if the Russians have been paying attention, they will flow more forces into the fight for Pokrovsk and Kurakhove (and other points in the south-east) and ensure that they push through the Ukrainian line. 

This fight looks to become quite desperate in the next two months.

v/r pete