December 2nd, 2024 Next Summary on December 4th

Peace Talks - Zelenskyy Interview 

Ground Ops  - Continued Russian gains

Politics  - $700 million in German Aid

Weather

Low clouds and fog continue to limit the effectiveness of drones and also have complicated confirming the locations and gains and losses of various units.

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, snow on the weekend. Daily lows in the mid 20s, daily highs hovering around freezing, wind chills around 20. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

30 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy through the week. Daily highs in the mid to upper 30s, daily lows around freezing. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

36 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week, snow next weekend. Daily highs and lows will be in the 20s through Friday, windchill high teens. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Zelenskyy Interview

During an interview last Friday President Zelenskyy said he would be willing to support a ceasefire with Russia if Ukraine received NATO guarantees. He also said that Ukraine didn’t currently have the wherewithal to liberate all of Ukrainian territory.

“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”

“I want to work with him [Trump] directly because there are different voices from people around him. And that’s why we need not to [allow] anybody around to destroy our communication. I want to share with him ideas and I want to hear from him.”

When asked it Ukraine could retake all Ukrainian territory, he answered:

"Our army does not have enough strength for this. This is true. We must find diplomatic solutions.”

Ground Operations

There were unconfirmed reports that yesterday Russian Spetsnaz destroyed two bridges -  near  Tymonovychi and Karpovychi, Chernihiv Oblast, north-east of Kyiv about 130 miles, but this has not been confirmed.

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces gained ground south-east of Korenevo, but there were no substantive gains anywhere in the salient by either side.

North of Kharkiv

Hard fighting was reported over the last several days but there were no substantive changes in the terrain held by either side.

North of the Donets River

Little change was observed in the last 24 hours. However, earlier in the weekend Russian forces gained ground north-east of Kupyansk along the Oskil River, near the town of Drovichne and a reinforced company set up a lodgment on the west side of the River on the 29th and remains there as of this morning. In addition, unconfirmed reports suggest Russian units pushing west from Andrivkq, due west of Svatove, have pushed westward almost to the Oskil river, just north of Borova

 Bakhmut

Fighting continued north and north east of Bakhmut, as well as west of Bakhmut around Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed gains anywhere. Again there was contrast between the reports and the lack of confirming imagery; reports suggest the Russian forces are widening their salient into Ukrainian forces around the small town of Stuposchky, just south of Chasiv Yar. And further south the Russians appear to have firm control of the terrain east of the Donets canal, from Chasiv Yar to Horlivka and beyond.

Fighting continued in and around Toretsk, but overall, reporting is contradictory, with some sources suggesting small ground gains as Russian force push into the center of the town; other reports say there has been no movement of the lines. Without clear imagery the current disposition is confusing but the Russian forces do seem to have sufficient numbers to continue the slow grind. 

Donetsk City

Russian forces in the Pokrovsk salient continue to push slowly westward, south of Pokrovsk, and have now occupied a string of villages south of Pokrovsk. The Russian front in that area is now basically a 10 mile long north-south line, with three smaller salients jutting out further to the west, the northern most one about to force its way into Novotroitske, a small town about 5 - 6 miles south-west of Pokrovsk.

The fight continues in and around Kurakhove. North of the Reservoir Russian forces appear to have pressed into Stari Terny, at the west end of the reservoir, but on the south side Russian forces are still grinding through Kurakhove and the weekend saw little appreciable change in the front line running through that town.

North of Vuhledar Russian forces continue to squeeze Ukrainian positions strung along the Sukhi Yaly River, and reporting suggests the Ukrainian holdings are getting thinner and thinner.

At the North-west corner of the Russian controlled rectangle north and west of Vuhledar, Russian forces continue to press north and west, and while one source suggests that they are still nearly 4 miles from Bahatyr, a second source suggests the Russian have pushed closer and are now less than a mile from Bahatyr, and possibly as little at 600 yards from the town, and about to cross the N15 roadway that runs east west.

Southern Ukraine

Russian advances in the south-east continue to press westward across the T0518 roadway and continued pressing on Novyi Komar, effectively continuing the evolving encirclement of Velyka Novosilke (VN). This movement cuts the T0518 roadway; that road is now in Russian hands from just north of VN, north to within half a mile of the N15 roadway. If this reporting is correct, that leaves 2 ground lines of communication (GLOC) into Velyka Novosilke. However, there is unconfirmed reporting that Russian forces have reached the center of Novyi Komar and cut the 2nd GLOC (O-0509), leaving only a smaller road that runs west to Hulyaipole to supply VN. That third road lies only 3,000 meters north of Russian forces pressing northward from Rivnopil. Just to the west of the town of Rivnopil there are what looks like unobstructed views  of that road, which would allow the Russians to bring that road under direct artillery fire. There is further unconfirmed reporting, from a Ukrainian blog, that Russian forces pushed north out of Rivnopil yesterday and have already reached the east - west road.

If these reports are correct, Ukrainian forces will find holding Velyka Novosilke very difficult and would need to withdraw in the near term.

Geolocated footage shows Russian forces making marginal advances south of Hulyaipole as of the 1st.

Air Operations

Russian forces launched 78 x Shahed drones and an undeclared number of decoy drones  into Ukrainian airspace on the night of the 30th. The UAF claimed it shot down 32 drones, and 45 drones were “lost” (Brought down by EW)  Drone strikes were reported in the Kiev metropolitan area.

Russian forces launched a small strike package into Ukrainian air space on the night of the 29th, with only 10 x Shahed drones; the UAF shot down 8 drones, one was “lost” (EW) and one flew back over Russian controlled terrain. However, Mykolaiv Oblast administrators reported agricultural infrastructure being struck by several ballistic missiles that same night.

President Zelenskyy stated that during the last week of November Russian forces launched 500+ glide bombs, 660 strike drones, and about 120 missiles into Ukraine.

Politics and Diplomacy

Chancellor Scholz of Germany announced a weapons package worth €650 million   ($708 million). While specific contents have not been listed, the package will include IRIS-T anti aircraft missile systems and other ammunition, a number of Leopard 1 tanks, and attack UAVs.

President Putin signed the 2025 Russian federal budget, with the largest defense spending since the Cold War: 13.5 trillion rubles (about $125 billion).

UKs “The Times” assesses that if an election were held today in Ukraine, President Zelenskyy would not be re-elected, with only 16% saying they would vote for the President, per a recent poll of 1,200 Ukrainians late last month. Valery Zaluzhnyi, the retired General and commander-in-chief, polled 27%.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Nov27 Dec2

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 73.14 72.55

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 69.15 68.65

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.26 3.16

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.58 5.48

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 110.90 106.33

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.62 41.70

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.84 67.47

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 66.27 65.93

Thoughts

A good deal of commentary on ceasefires, truces, peace talks, etc. by noted figures  

Former NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg made a statement about a ceasefire and the need to rearm Ukraine, this was spun by Russia’s ForMin Lavrov spun that as Stoltenberg spinning lies, that NATO was uninterested in a true peace deal.

Reading between the lines, it seems that there are two perspectives emerging: Ukraine’s manpower issues are finally catching up with them - the smaller country cannot fight attrition warfare with a bigger country; and the country that is wining - Russia - will slow-roll negotiations.

At the same time, it now appears fairly clear that both sides know they are in some sort of end game. Just from a visceral reading of the commentary, it seems as if the Russians recognize that within a short period of time after Trump takes office, they will need to seriously address a ceasefire. So, they are trying to gain more ground between now and then. 

Ukraine meanwhile sees that it is losing terrain and so, while it still has some major “chips” to put on the table, is trying to shape a better deal, particularly after talk during the past week that Ukraine must not be allowed into NATO.

All said, it’s not a lot of progress, but it is progress.

v/r pete