December 11th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south Pokrovsk 

Air Operations - Ukraine launches 6 x ATACMS

Peace Talks - PM Tusk says they will start this winter.

Weather

Kharkiv

36 and cloudy. Snow showers tomorrow morning and Friday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday afternoon and Saturday, snow returns on Sunday.  Upper 20s tomorrow, low 20s on Friday, in the teens on Saturday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

41 and cloudy. Rain or rain snow mix tonight and tomorrow. Partly cloudy to sunny Friday and Saturday, Friday will be windy, more rain on Sunday.  Temperatures in the low 30s tomorrow, then upper 20s on Friday, lower 20s on Saturday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

28 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 21. Snow-showers tonight and tomorrow night, mostly cloudy for the next week. Temperatures falling, in the upper 20s tomorrow, lower 20s Friday and Saturday. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces made some gains on the west side of the salient, near the border with Ukraine, pushing into the town of Darino. In addition, the various bloggers reporting on the current disposition of forces have mainly reset Ukrainian forces to the positions they held several days ago, and eliminated the smaller salient of the northern edge of the current lodgment. So, things look as they did 4 or 5 days ago, though the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) still reports that there is a smaller salient extending north-west from the vicinity of Malay Loknya.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces continued operations in the two small salients north of Kharkiv, and there were claims that a Russian force made gains near the town of Vovchansk (north-east of Kharkiv), but this has not been confirmed.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact. There are two areas of interest: north-east of Kupyansk it appears that the Russians continue to hold a small position on the west bank of the Oskil River near Dvorichna, despite earlier reports that they had been pushed back across the river. 

Further south, west of Svatove, Russian forces continue to attack west, trying to reach the Oskil River. There are several streams of reporting which contradict each other, but the UGS continues to report fighting near Lozova (about 14 miles west-north-west of Svatove, and about 5-6 mies, east of the Oskil River), which supports reprinting that Russia troops have a narrow thrust westward, south of Lozova, pushing toward Novoplatonivka (on the Oskil).

Bakhmut

What appears to be intense fighting is reported north and north-east of Bakhmut, especially just south of Vyimka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting also continues inside Chasiv Yar but there were, again, no changes confirmed.  Just to the south the General Staff reports more fighting very near Stupochky, as well as near Bila Hora, both of which suggest Russian probes are slowly moving further west. Still, there were no confirmed changes to the front line in these areas.

In Toretsk imagery confirmed Russian gains in the center of the city, pushing past the center of town and now about to enter the residential area west of the industrial center of the town. Immediately to the west of Toretsk Russian force have also pushed into Shcherbynivka and have pushed into the center of that town. If the pattern holds, these two fights will now distill down to street-to-street, house-to-house fights and will be slow, bloody fights. The Russian taking of Vuhledar two months ago changed that with the use of FAB 500 (1,100 pound “smart bombs” ) that had considerably more striking power than artillery, and caused more casualties among Ukraine defenders. If they have the necessary tactical air support, this fight could go quickly.

Donetsk City

There were more confirmed Russian gains south, south-west, and south-east of Pokrovsk. Most significantly, Russian forces continue to slowly move westward - locally northwest, down the Solona River, moving into the the small towns along the river and taking the terrain around the towns: Zhovte, Novopustynka, and Novotroitske, Russian forces appear to have passed further west and south, and are now preparing to attack Novoolenivka (3 miles south of Novotroitske). In addition, Ukrainian General Staff reporting notes fighting taking place near Pishchane (2 miles north-north-east of Novotroitske, about 3 miles south-west of Pokrovsk), and on the very southern edge of Pokrovsk itself (a bit more than 5 miles north-east of Novotroitske). Russian sources also claim Russian forces have pushed into Shevchenko (just south-west of Pokrovsk). Other sources report that Russian probes are now operating within 2.5 miles of the southern edge of Pokrovsk.

To the south and south-east Russian forces continue to press into Kurakhove, but appeared to make no headway. Ukrainian forces are only slowly giving ground in Kurakhove and immediately west of that town, but Russian forces are close to cutting off their supply line - and de facto exit path to the west. And immediately south Russian forces continue to squeeze the Sukhi Yaly river and the string of villages along it. Ukrainian logistics assets will soon find the small river valley impossible to access - they may already find it impossible,  

Near Velyka Novosilke (VN), Russian forces are confirmed to have control of Blahodatne (just south of VN) but Ukrainian forces still control VN and Novyi Komar, though the front lines apparently to be the streets on the edge of these towns - there is no standoff terrain.

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Russian forces continue to probe along the Dnepr River and along the southern front, probes also continue on the islands at the mouth of the Dnepr. North of Robotyne Russian forces have pushed north along the T0408 roadway and have gained ground on Novodanylivka, now less than 2 miles away. There were no confirmed gains of terrain along the river.

Air Operations

On the 10th Russian forces launched at least 4 x Iskander class ballistic missiles against Ukrainian targets in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia areas. Ukrainian officials reported the missiles struck administrative and residential buildings and a health clinic.

It is unlikely that 4 Iskanders would be launched against residential faculties or admin buildings, or re they that inaccurate or unreliable. Rather, they have been quite successful at striking high value point targets, and this is just deliberately misleading reporting by local officials.

Russia reports that 6 x ATACMS were fired at Taganrog airfield earlier today. Russian forces claim to have brought down all six, and no target was hit though several people were hurt on the ground from falling debris.

Russian MOD promised retaliation.

The Associated Press is reporting that “US intelligence” has determined that Russian forces “may launch another Oreshnik” IRBM (really ICBM) in the next few days.  

Politics

The US has approved the sale of F-16 services (maintenance and depot support) to the UAF worth $266 million.

Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk says that peace talks could begin this winter.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec10 Dec11

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 71.98 72.86

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 68.27 69.36

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.10 3.32

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.57 5.68

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 102.34 107.48

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.67 41.70

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.00 67.00

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 65.66 66.51

Thoughts

Several items:

It has been hinted by multiple sources that some preliminary peace negotiations have already started. Certainly, enough senior figures have talked around it in the past few weeks.

The basics appear to be much as was suggested by nearly everyone from very early on in the war: a ceasefire, followed by some sort of agreement to provide Ukraine with a real security guarantee - that is, allies in country, with defensive weapons, while at the same time not admitting Ukraine to NATO. That might be permanent or perhaps over some time period (10 years?).

The presence of Western (US) troops in some capacity inside Ukraine would certainly be one discussion point (a THAAD battery would be one option), manned by US Army troops.

Russia would have sanctions lifted, but would also be charged with reconstruction costs. I would guess that the actual return of seized lands, and the brining of certain individuals to trial for war crimes would be part of the - prolonged - negotiations.

If they have already started, which is credible, expect them to accelerate after as the Trump inauguration draws near. 

In the meantime, the fighting continues and poor Ukrainian defensive positions are becoming more apparent as Russian forces in the south push further west and the 2nd and 3rd (and 4th) Ukrainian defensive lines are overrun, and most of them turn out to be unfinished and in some cases barely started. Financial Times has a report on these positions and the gist of it is that no one was in charge, that each oblast and raion was responsible, money was simply doled out, and there was no oversight on the projects. Whether or not that constitutes corruption, the fact is money was spent and there are few decent defensive positions.

As for the Oreshnik IRBM (it is an ICBM - it flew the requisite distance), that the Russian forces may launch another missile is certify true. They may not, also. It is an absolute certainty that they will or will not launch one of these missiles in the next week, month, year or decade. An accurate statement that tells nothing.

v/r pete