December 10th, 2024

Ground Ops  - Russian gains south Pokrovsk 

Politics & Diplomacy - Ukrainians ready for elections?

Zelenskyy  - On Conscription 

Weather - Weather cold this week

Kharkiv

34 and cloudy. Rain tomorrow and tomorrow night, then a week of clouds, except Saturday which will be sunny. Highs and lows in the mid 30s through Thursday morning, then temperatures will fall, mid teens by Saturday morning. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

42 and cloudy. Rain tonight and tomorrow, cloudy for the next 7 days except Saturday, which will be sunny and cold. Lows and highs through Thursday morning will be in the 40s, then temperatures start dropping and by Saturday morning the temperature will be in the high teens, with windchill in the low teens.  Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 23. Cloudy to partly cloudy through the weekend, snow showers possible Wednesday night. Temperatures through Thursday afternoon will hover around freezing, Thursday afternoon temperatures being to fall, will be in the mid-teens by Saturday morning. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Fighting was reported across much of the salient but there was no confirmation of any changes due to very poor weather conditions that prevented taking any commercial imagery. However, there are multiple reports suggesting Russian forces have taken Plekhovo, 6 miles south of Sudzha, about 1.5 miles from the Ukrainian border.  Ukrainian General Staff reporting  noted multiple small unit assaults on the west side of Plekhovo, lending credence to the report that the town is in Russian hands. Fighting was also reported at 4 separate sites along western edge of the salient, but there were no claims of any gains of terrain by either side.

North Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both small clients north of Kharkiv, but there were no claims of any gains by either side.

North of the Donets River

Fighting was reported along most of the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains. Both Russian and Ukrainian blogs support the assessment that Russian forces west of Svatove are trying to reach Borova, on the Oskil, but there is some confusion as to how close they are, with some reports suggesting that Russian elements in this area are on or near the river, while other sources suggest that Russian forces along this line of attack may be as much as 4 miles from Borova and 5 miles from the river.

Trying to sort this out, it appears that Russian forces are making small raids across this terrain, which like most of the rest of the terrain, is gently rolling farmland, cut up by small streams and tree-rows that delineate each field. Small units - squad in size (10 men or less) can sometimes sneak through the lines of trees and attack Ukrainian defensive positions, but more often than not they are stopped and have to withdraw. 

Bakhmut

Fighting contend to the north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no changes to the frontline.

There were no confirmed gains by Russian forces in Chasiv Yar or to the immediate south in Stupochky. There are wide variances in reporting with some sources reporting that Russian forces are still 2 miles east of Stupochky, and there’s reporting that Russian forces are already partly inside the eastern edge of the town, and there isn’t enough data to point to one argument or the other as more or less correct.

Further south, more contradictory reporting suggests that the street-to-street fight contains in Torestk and there is no way right now to sort out the day-to-day situation.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to push westward from their positions south of Pokrovsk. Along the entire edge of the Pokrovsk salient from due east of Pokrovsk to the south side of the Sukhi Yaly river valley, Russian forces were on the attack, and some gains were noted.  Of particle interest, multiple reports note that the Russians appear to have taken control of Novotroitske, have pushed through it, and are continuing roughly along the line of the Solona River, heading west, and are closing on the town of Solone, about 6 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, with some lead elements less than 3 miles from Pokrovsk itself. This also places Russian forces less than 3 miles from T0406 roadway that runs westward from Pokrovsk, as well as one of the 2 rail lines that runs into Pokrovsk from the west.

Russian forces also have circled the Kurakhove reservoir and are now pressing on the town of Kurakhove from the west, but there has been no more progress in taking the town itself.

The small valley of the Sukhi Yaly River continues to be squeezed and  that pocket appears to be on the verge of collapsing, though there was no confirmed gains by Russian forces yesterday.

Further south, around Velyka Novosilke (VN) Russian forces continue to attack from the east but there were no confirmed gains. Russian forces north of Rivnopil (about 5 miles west-south-west of VN) attacked north and reporting suggests they had gained ground to the north, but that can’t be confirmed. And the town of Blahodatne, just south of VN, appears to be in Russian hands, but still that has not been confirmed.

Air Operations

On the night of the 8th and morning of the 9th Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 37 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down both cruise missiles and 18 drones. A further 18 drones were “lost" (defeated by EW).

The UAF reported that falling debris was responsible for power grid infrastructure damage in Vinnytsia.

President Zelenskyy reported that between December 2nd and December 8th Russian forces launched 20 x missiles, 400 x Shahed drones, and 500 x FAB glide boys into Ukrainian airspace.

The UAF reports that Russian forces fired 6,000 drones into Ukrainian airspace for the three moths of September - November 2024, compared to 1500 during the same period last year.

Politics

In a recent poll of 1,000 Ukrainians, , 44.6% said they trust Donald Trump, and there is a hope (or expectation) of a more decisive policy and “rapid peace.”

Another poll asked Ukrainians about elections:

81.1% say they re ready for elections

78.8% want an election of the Verkhovna Rada “in the near future.

49.2% want a presidential election “in the near future.”

Among possible candidates, trust was as follows:

70.9% trust Valerii Zaluzhnyi

63.3% trust Kyrylo Budanov

44.8% trust Zelenskyy

Manpower and Conscription 

President Zelenskyy issued statement on X re: lowering the conscription age:

There’s a lot of discussion in the media about lowering the draft age for Ukrainians to go to the frontlines. We must focus on equipping existing brigades and training personnel to use this equipment. We must not compensate the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers.

The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia’s military potential, not Ukraine’s draft age. The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storages.

The most important thing is to work together on how to end this war—that is our top priority. During the meeting in Paris, this was exactly what we focused on, and it was a very productive conversation. I reiterate my gratitude to President Macron for organizing it, as well as my deep gratitude to President Trump for his strong resolve to bring this war to a fair end. This is the right approach, and it is important that all details are thoroughly worked out to ensure that peace is truly durable.

We know that America has the capacity to accomplish remarkable things—things that others have not been able to achieve. To succeed in ending this war, we need unity—the unity of America, Europe, and everyone in the world who values security—as well as strong positions and guarantees for peace.

I told President Trump that Putin fears only him and, perhaps, China. And that’s the truth—only decisiveness can bring this war to a just end and ensure lasting peace.

Action is needed now to restore the proper international order.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec10

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 71.98

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 68.27

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.10

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.57

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 102.34

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.67

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.00

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 65.66

Thoughts

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria represents a serious setback to the Russian positions in the Mid East, a loss of face on the international scene, and until they gain another overseas port, a reduction in their ability to project both military and political power. But it also represents an opportunity to President Elect Trump and possibility President Putin.

The specific loss of Syria, and the seriously reduced status of Iran in the wake of Israeli attacks, leaves Russia with one weakened ally when just a short while ago they had two seemingly capable allies working with them in the Mid East. The fall of Syria and the likely evacuation of all Russian personnel and material from Tartus is not only an operational problem, the loss of face is itself a serious strategic issue, throwing doubt on Russia’ ability to protect an ally, even as the war in Ukraine drags on.

And it shouldn’t be lost an anyone that Iran thought it was in the driver’s seat when, in October 2023 it okayed the Hamas attack into Israel. Now Hamas is nearly destroyed, Hezbollah has been badly mauled, and their weapons caches destroyed, Assad - their long-term ally, is gone, Iran itself has been attacked and enough damage done to send them into a defensive crouch, and the Russian footprint in the Mid East is going to be markedly less at least for the near term.

Iran should have taken note of what the Oracle at Delphi told King Croessus when he asked if he should attack Persia. The Pythia responded that if he attacked, a great empire would be destroyed. Of course, he did attack, and his kingdom was smashed.

Putin should have also paid attention. Russia is winning on the ground right now Ukraine, but long term economic trends spell trouble for Russia. More to the point, the lesson here is that long wars are opportunities for everything to go wrong; the longer the war, the more “sideways” it can go.

If Putin is to draw any lesson from this, it would seem the answer would be: “end the war.”

But how exactly he perceives this is both critical and almost certainly unknown to anyone outside his inner circle.

He may see a need to “score a win” at any cost, to offset his losses and regain his reputation.

Or he may decide the best bet is to cut a deal right now and end the war before it goes very badly for him.

There’s always the third possibility, that he simply doesn’t see a need to change course. But with his Mediterranean fleet now looking for a port, and with Assad now hanging around the Kremlin, the third option doesn’t seem likely. 

My suspicion is that Putin will see Trump’s arrival - a massive change in the players - as an opportunity to save face by saying Trump’s a new situation so he made a deal with Trump, surrender some slice of land that his army has taken, accept Ukraine will have the US as an ally, and some assortment of US and European troops and assets on Ukrainian soil, and push back and call it a day.

But this is a path that Trump alone can play.

v/r pete