December 5th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains, some Ukrainian gains

Politics  - Dutch MinDef - "Ukraine losing the war”

Weather

Kharkiv

3o and light snow. More snow tomorrow, then rain Saturday through Tuesday. Below freezing all day tomorrow, in the 30s Saturday through Tuesday, Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

34 and light snow. Mostly cloudy through Wednesday, rain or snow Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures gradually climbing through Tuesday, a couple of degrees each day, with lows tomorrow near freezing, highs in the upper 30s, and by Tuesday lows will be in the mid 40s and highs will be near 50.   Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

27 and cloudy. Snow or rain showers daily through next Tuesday. Tomorrow below freezing, Saturday through Tuesday lows and highs will be in the 30s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces again pushed into the small forest south-east of Korenevo and appear to have gained some ground. Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to report multiple attacks but there appear to be only marginal advances and "see-saw” taking and ceding small pieces of terrain.

North of Kharkiv City

Fighting was reported in both of the small salients but there were no confirmed losses or gains by either side.

North of the Donets River

Ukrainian forces are reporting that they have pushed the last elements of the Russian infantry company, that crossed just north of Dvorichne, back across the Oskil River. A second, smaller bridgehead still exists a bit further south on the West Bank of the Oskil.

There was little other movement along the line of contact except near Lozova (due west of Svatove) where Russian forces are pressing on that town, even as other Russian forces just to the south have pressed westward and have nearly reached the Oskil River.

Bakhmut

Russian forces appear to have made small gains inside Chasiv Yar, and are now pressing on the ceramics factory from the east and south-east. On the south side of Chasiv Yar Russian forces have pushed forward and are now within several hundred yards of the north edge of the village of Stupochky; fighting is taking place just south of the H32 roadway in this area. Fighting - which probably was a Russian recon element, was also reported “near Bila Hora,” which is about 2 miles west of the Russian line.

Further south, in Toretsk, Ukrainian forces pushed Russian solders back a block in central Toretsk even as Russians forces made gains south of Toretsk in Leonidivak, and in southern Toretsk itself.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground south of Pokrovsk, with small gains confirmed in Zhovte, Novyi Trud, and on the edges of Zelene and Shevchenko, which places Russian forces less than 4 miles south and south-west from central Pokrovsk.

To the south-east from Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue to press westward along the north side of the Kurakhivske Reservoir, and some reports place Russian forces west of the reservoir and moving south so as to attack Kurakhove from the west, placing it between two Russian forces. If the Russians have not reached and rounded the west end of the reservoir, they will within several days.

Further south, from Vuhledar north and west, the Russians continue to grind out small gains and continue to try to squeeze Ukrainian forces in the Sukhi Yaly River area. Russian forces pushing south from Dalnie and Russian forces pushing north from Trudove are now roughly 2 miles part and there are 3 small towns - and several Ukrainian troops detachments, east of that closing pincer.

Further west, Russian forces press on Novyi Komar, and just south of Novyi Komar, “intense” fighting is taking place around the edge of Novyi Komar and Velyka Novosilke; Ukrainian forces report that they have pushed back into Rozdilne (north-east of Novyi Komar). Russian bloggers claim that Russian artillery now has direct fire ability over the three roads that lead into the area - which, based upon of the reported disposition of forces, would seem to be accurate. 

South Ukraine

Bloggers continue to report that Russian forces are moving assets - small boats and artillery - into the Kinburn Spit and the lower Dnepr in anticipation of efforts to seize the islands at the mouth of the Dnepr.

Air Operations

On the night of December 3rd Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile and 50 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 29 drones, 18 drones became “lost" (Defeated by EW), and 1 drones flew back over Russian forces. There were no reports of damage.

During the same night Ukrainian forces launched at least 3 drones struck Dyagilevo Air Base near Ryazan City (about 100 miles south-east of Moscow) and 1 drone struck Spetsnaz Police Regiment's barracks in Grozny, Republic of Chechnya. The RuAF claimed it shot down 4 drones. 

Dyagilevo Air Base has training command regiments for both Backfire and Bear bombers, and an IL-78 tanker squadron was operating out of the base as of 2004. In December of 2022 a drone strike damaged a Tu-22 Backfire at the airfield. It is probable that no aircraft remained at the airfield after that strike, that they moved them all further east, and the field is only used as a divert field.

Politics 

Dutch Defence Minister Brekelmans commented that Ukraine is losing the war during a debate in parliament:

"The risk is that Ukraine will have to make big concessions because it'll negotiate from a position of weakness. This will mean that aggression in Europe will win. Then we'll really be living together on a different continent than the one we all grew up on,"

“We can even say that Ukraine is [currently] losing the war. And we're dealing with the [US] election results, which are turning everything upside down quite a bit because we know that the new president, Donald Trump, has made statements about how he feels about Ukraine and how he'll force the parties to the negotiating table.”

"Even if I had a much bigger budget for Ukraine right now, it would not lead to immediate deliveries. There are simply no Patriot [air defence] missiles [in the warehouses available for delivery to Ukraine].”

Discussions continue in the Verkhovna Rada to lower the conscription age to 18 from 25. The White House has pressed Kyiv to lower the age so as to expand the manpower pool for the army.

At the same time the Ukrainian General Staff insists that there has been no discussion within the army concerning lowering the conscription age.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec4 Dec5

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 73.12 72.53

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 69.37 68.73

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.00 3.12

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.48 5.69

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 104.86 101.48

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.64 41.54

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 68.11 67.99

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 67.33 65.88

Thoughts

Of interest, a Ukrainian forces spokesman discussing the Russian forces immediately north of Kharkiv, noted that Russian engineering units are building larger and deeper bunkers, and are now building bunkers as deep 10 meters down.

This matches other reports that bunkers complexes have been getting deeper and more complex and harder - more concrete. The Russians have been very aggressive in moving engineers into position immediately behind the front lines, and building these bunkers, deeper and harder than the bunkers they had been building before the war.

It has been noted from time to time that the Russian engineers learned from the Ukrainian counter-offensive of the summer of 2023, what worked and what didn’t, and have applied those lessons to these new bunkers. Whether that is, in fact, true will be difficult to ascertain, but certainly the Ukrainians had a very difficult time getting through each line south of Orikhiv in 2023, and in the end failed to do so. Presumably the new Russian defensive positions are harder than those positions. These bunkers will obviously make any future effort to push back the Russians that much more difficult.

It is vaguely reminiscent of the stories of the British soldiers reaching a German bunker in WWI and find that the bunkers were very deep and very hard and that few were getting killed in the tremendous artillery barrages that the British were dropping n the German lines.

As for the Russian forces reaching Zelene and Shevchenko, south of Pokrovsk, as you will recall, the Ukrainian defensive lines were heavy east of Pokrovsk, and in fact were a double line from about the 1 o’clock position to the the 5 o’clock. That heavy line (or lines) ends just east of Zelene. From Zelene westward to Shevchenko, looking north, there are a few Ukrainian strong points but also a good deal of open terrain straight into Pokrovsk. The one “defensive barrier” between the Russians in this area and Pokrovsk right now is the Solonenkyi River, which may present a problem if there is enough rain. But north of the river is 3 - 4 miles of open farmland to the south edge of Pokrovsk.

Concerning conscription, the average age of the troops in the Ukrainian army is now just short of 43 (the US, with an all volunteer force (which will normally have a higher average age than a conscripted force) has an average age of roughly 28).

While the nominal population of Ukraine at the end of 2022 was 43 million, several million were already livening and working in Europe (Ukraine’s population in 1992 was 53 million). With the seizing of the Donbas and Luhansk, and Crimea, more than 5 million Ukrainians came under Russian control. With the start of the war millions fled to Europe. The current estimate is that fewer than 30 million people actually live in territory controlled by Kyiv.

Given the estimated demographic curves of the current Ukrainian population, on paper there are perhaps 1 million men aged 18 - 25 in the country. Some of those have already left the country, some would be physically unable serve, and some would already be in critical positions and would be deferred, so the available number is probably substantially smaller.

While the situation is substantially different, it is a little bit illuminating that only 36% of US males were drafted in WWII. Even Germany only had 42% of males serve. So, if the conscription age were lowered, it might result in 500,000 more troops, but probably less.

v/r pete