December 4th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains, some Ukrainian gains

Politics  - Speaker will not vote on Biden request

- More US Aid

- Luxembourg says to to Ukraine NATO memebrship

Weather

Kharkiv

31 and cloudy. Cloudy all week, snow or rain showers possible next 5 days. Just below freezing all day tomorrow, then 4 days of temperatures in teh 30s highs and lows. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

32 and cloudy. Cloudy through the week. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts, except Saturday afternoon to Sunday night: 15 - 20kts.

Kyiv

25 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Snow or rain showers daily for the next week.Tomorrow blew freezing, but after that daily highs and lows will be int he mid 30s. Winds variable, 10kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces made small gains south-east of Korenevo in the past 48 hours, but these amount to the small “see-saw” exchanges of positions common along much of the front line. A look at the line over the past 2 weeks shows no appreciable change.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued in both small salients north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains.

North of the Donets River

Ukrainian forces appear to have forced the Russians out of the small lodgment on the west side of the Oskil, near Dvorichne, and the Russian unit, estimated to be a reinforced company at most (less than 200 troops), appears to have withdrawn from the town of Novomlynsk and may have moved back across the river to the east bank, though there is some reporting that suggests that the Russians still control several small oxbows in the river just outside of the town. .

Further south along the line of contact fighting continues but there have been no confirmed gains or losses.

Despite lack of confirmation, Russian reporting, and some Ukrainian reporting suggests that Russian forces in the Senkove area, on the east bank of the Oskil, continue to slowly expand their area of control and are pushing north. 

Bakhmut

North of Bakhmut there were no confirmed gains or losses.

As elsewhere, due to the cloudy weather, there was no confirmation of any gains or losses in terrain in the Bakhmut area, but Ukrainian blogger reporting suggests some small Russian gains in eastern Chasiv Yar in what has devolved to another street-to-street, building-to-building fight in the east side of that town, as well as in the east end of Stupochky, and these two are now, as others before them, being reduced to rubble.

Further south, Russian forces continue to slowly grind into the center of Toretsk, and some small gains were confirmed in the vicinity of the nearby Tsentraina mines.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to make gains south of Pokrovsk and in the vicinity of Kurakhove. Immediately south of Pokrovsk, Russian forces have pushed through Zhovte and appear to have forced their way into the east edge of Novotroitske, 6 miles south-west of Pokrovsk. And to the east of Pokrovsk Russian forces made small Gaines pushing towards Pokrovsk.

Russian forces continue to grind slowly west around the Korakhove reservoir and now control the entire north bank. Further, the pocket north of the reservoir has been closed up, except for a small crescent-shaped area on the western edge, and Ukrainian troops appear to have withdrawn to the west. There have been no confirmed gains noted in Kurakhove itself.

Russian forces about 12 miles north of Velyka Novosilke are drawing near the N15 Roadway - depending on which report you belie they are between a half mile and 3 miles from that road. That road is the last hard surface road that would allow a rapid withdrawal from the Kurakhove area. If the Russians can push across the road and past Ukrainian positions around Bahatyr, the only serious obstacle north of them would be the Vovcha River, and then they would have fairly unobstructed terrain in front of them, with few Ukrainian defenses, and they could move north and flank Pokrovsk.

In the general area north and west of Vuhledar Russian forces continue to press on the small river valley of the Suhki Yaly River, with Russian units pressing west and south from the Dalnie area as other Russian unit press north and north-east the Bohoiavlenka area. That pocket is shrinking by day and will not likely survive more than another week or so.

West of Vuhledar Russian forces continue to press on Velyka Novosilke from the east and south and only one road, the O-0509 roadway, which runs due north, remains open, but is under direct fore from Russian units to the east, less than a half mile distant. 

At the same time, the Ukrainian General Staff repots that Ukrainian forces in Novyi Komar, the town immediately north of Velyka Novosilke, pushed Russian forces out of the east edge of the town and currently have complete control of the town. This might marginally improve the use of O-0509 roadway, heading north.

What is of note is that they reported that they pushed the Russians out, confirming that, indeed the Russian had been in the town. 

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces were active in the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole areas, and Ukrainian reporting continues to emphasize buildup of Russian assets in the area, and are improving their defensive positions in the area.

Elsewhere in the south there were reports of Russian activity on the islands in the Dnepr River, but there were no details.

Air Operations

As of 1700 EDT (US East Coast) 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles had been fired into Ukrainian airspace, and several drones have been detected headed into Ukraine.

On the night of December 2nd Russian forces launched 28 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 22 drones, 1 drone was “lost" (defeated by EW), and 2 drones returned to Russian controlled airspace. Ukrainian officials reported drone strikes on the power grid in 3 areas.

On the night of December 1st Russian forces launched 110 x Shahed driers into Ukrainian airspace; the UAF claimed it shot down 52 drones, 50 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW), 6 drones turned around and returned to Russian airspace. Russian courses claimed to have struck 8 different infrastructure targets. There were no separate reports validating one or the other side, though on average a handful of droens do manage to reach their target every night.

President Zelenskyy commented that Russian forces launched 347 missiles and more than 2,500 drones into Ukrainian airspace during November.

Politics and Diplomacy

Speaker of the House Johnson said he will not consider President Biden’s request for an additional $24 billion in aid to Ukraine.

”There are developments by the hour in Ukraine, I think as we predicted and as I said to all of you weeks before the election, if Donald Trump is elected, it will change the dynamic of the Russian war on Ukraine. So, it is not the place of Joe Biden to make that decision. Now, we have a newly elected president, and we are going to wait and take the new commander-in-chief's direction on all of that.”

Meanwhile, SecState Blinken has provided the details on the transfer of funds derived from frozen Russian assets, an amount of roughly $50 billion.

"We've now managed, on the basis of the frozen sovereign [Russian] assets, to get $50 billion to Ukraine that will be going out the door in the coming weeks. Both from the United States and Europe, and that will carry Ukraine for some time into next year.”

Blinken also commented on the transfer of the remaining approved aid.

"We're focused in very practical, concrete ways, really on three things [regarding help for Ukraine]. Making sure it has the money, the resources it needs to sustain its economy and to sustain its defence. And then finally mobilization.”

During a meeting yesterday in Brussels of the NATO foreign minsters, Luxembourg’s ForMin commented that Luxembourg opposes NATO membership for Ukraine.

Belgium, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain already have said they oppose Ukrainian membership. Membership requires 100% approval.

Ukraine’s position, reiterated yesterday by President Zelenskyy, is that Ukraine can accept nothing less than full NATO membership, that only a NATO guarantee will bring security and peace to Ukraine.

The crew of a Russian ship, operating in the Baltic Sea, fired flares at a German Navy Helicopter.

Following the incident, a spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense declined to comment in detail, stating that such incidents sometimes happen  and that: "In such cases, it becomes a matter for the navy or air force to respond calmly and with a de-escalating effect.”

A poll conducted by the Levada Center in the last week of November revealed that 39% of Russians believed that he use of nuclear weapons by Russia, in Ukraine, “could be justified.” The number opposed to the use of a nuclear weapon was 45%, down from 52% in June.

After President Elect Trump announced his intention of appointing Retired Gen Kellogg as his special rep for Ukraine - ie, the lead negotiator, NATO Secretary-General Rutte warned that forcing Ukraine to accept a deal that favors Russia would increase the risk to the US and NATO form China, Iran and North Korea, as it would be interpreted  by those countries that the US and NATO were weak.

The DOD announced the transfer of $725 million worth of gear under Presidential Drawdown Authority. The package includes:

- Stinger man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) missiles

- HIMARS, 155MM and 105MM ammo

- NASAMS missiles

- TOW missiles

- Counter drone systems

- Anti-tank systems (AT-4 and Javelin)

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec2 Dec4

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.55 73.12

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.65 69.37

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.16 3.00

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.48 5.48

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 106.33 104.86

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.70 41.64

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.47 68.11

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.93 67.33

Thoughts

Russian and Ukrainian forces are bogged down in the Kursk Salient and at several other spots along the line, probably as a result of the poor weather - rain and low ceilings - as much as anything else. Whether either side can use the poor weather and the resting “stalled” movements to rearm, bring new troops forward, rotate out tired units, etc., remains to be seen. 

But, if the hints are correct, that the Ukrainians have few troops to rotate in, and this will be of value only to move ammo and fuel and food.

Whether the Russians have more ready reserves isn’t clear, but they probably do.

Last week it was noted that Gen Syrskyi had committed some Ukrainian reserves to the defense of Pokrovsk. But, to the south of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to squeeze the Ukrainian positions and Ukrainian units are either withdrawing or getting chewed up; Russian forces in the south keep closing up salients, and straightening lines. 

The defense of Velyka Novosilke appears to be the next fight. The Russians will now try to cut the roads - the GLOCs - into the town.  If they can do that after Sysrskyi committed his reserves it might indicate that the Ukrainian army is teetering. The defense of that town, while an unimportant piece of real estate itself, may tell a much greater story.

v/r pete