December 18th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south of Pokrovsk 

Politics - Zelenskyy, Beijing issue statements 

Weather

Kharkiv

27 and partly cloudy. In the low 20s and snow tomorrow morning, then 6 cloudy days with rain or snow showers possible for the entire period. Temperatures will see lows in the low 30s and highs near 40. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

35 and cloudy, gusts to 20.  Cloudy on Thursday, sunny on Friday, then cloudy and rain for 4 days. Daily highs in the mid to upper 40s, lows in the 30s, except Thursday morning temperatures will drop into the 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

27 and mostly cloudy. Rain later tonight, cloudy to partly cloudy for the next week; rain possible again on Friday night. Daily highs in the upper 30s for the next few days, then Sunday and Monday will be below freezing all day, with lows in the mid 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient 

Russian forces gained some ground north-east of Malaya Loknya as well as near Kurilkova (south of Sudzha). In both cases, these advances included North Korean troops led by Russian officers.

Russian forces also reportedly gained ground south-east of Korenevo, but this has not been confirmed. Russian reporting suggests this effort is poised to isolate the Ukrainian forces in the for northern end of the salient, roughly a brigade in strength.

Russian forces in the Kursk Salient are reportedly receiving on average 40 tacair strikes per day in support.

North of Khirkov

Fighting continues in both salients but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

North of the Donets River

North of Kupyansk Russian forces continue to hold and slowly expand their lodgment on the West Bank of the Oskil River, north Kupyansk, awhile also keeping pressure on Kupyansk from the east. Russian forces in this area now control an irregularly shaped piece of terrain west of the Oskil River about 4.5 miles long and up to 2 miles wide. There were no other confirmed gains.

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north, west and south of Bakhmut. To the north Ukrainian General Staff reports show engagement between 2 and 3 miles east of Siversk, the rough site of the reported rout of the Russian Mechanized unit last week. Whether the rout took place or not, the Russians appear to at least be contesting control of the terrain, rather than having withdrawn to the east.

Russian forces pushing into Chasiv Yar appear to have gained at least partial control of the ceramics plant in the north-center of town, and fighting is now taking place inside the industrial facility. Immediately to the south, Russian forces appear to have pushed into the south-east corner of Stupochky.

Further south, Russian forces continue to gain ground inside Toretsk, and have pushed into the north-western quadrant of the town and are also pushing into Krymske and it would appear they have momentum on their side.

Donetsk City

Russian forces south-west of Pokrovsk continue to push westward along the general track of the Solona River, and appear to have entered Novovasylivka. Russian sources claim that they pushed Ukrainian forces back from the western edge of Shevchenko, but this has not been confirmed. Fighting also continues east and south-east of Pokrovsk, near the towns of  Lysivka, Sukhyi Yar and Promin.

Russian forces continue to push into Kurakhove but the Ukrainian line in the town is still holding. So, while the Russian north and west of the reservoir are gaining ground, Kurakhove itself has not cracked yet. However, the lines of communication into the town are now under direct fire and what little supplies are getting through are being delivered at great risk. It remains to be seen how much longer the Ukrainian forces inside Kurakhove can hold.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to squeeze along the Sukhi Yaky River and the pocket east of Kostiantynopolske has been closed up, with Russian forces having taken  Kostayntynopolske, Uspenivka and everything further east. Russian forces are pressing on Zelenivka and will then push on Ulakly on the H15 Roadway and join up with forces pushing south and west from the area just west of the Kurakhove reservoir.

Russian forces continue to squeeze Velyka Novosilke from the east and south. In the east Russian forces are now pressing on the eastern edge of VN, as well as pushing north along the Mokri Yaly River and have either bypassed or overrun Makarivka and have entered Storozheve.  Just to the west Russian forces continue to press north from the Rivnopil and Novodarivka and have definitely cut the O-0510 roadway. North of VN Russian forces have pushed into the center of Novyi Komar, and the two lines of communication running north are also in Russian control.

Southern Ukraine

In the general area of Orikhiv, reporting suggests that the Russians continue to probe north from the general area of Novoandrivka (that is, north-west and north of Robotyne)  as well as from the area of Marfopil (south-east of Hulyaipole). But, some reporting that suggests that the Russians are simply rotating troops in and out and this activity is being misinterpreted, but reporting is light and, combined with poor weather, prevents confirmation of specific Russian activity in these areas.

Russian forces continued operations on the islands near the mouth of the Dnepr River, but there is no hard reporting on who controls what among those islands. 

This activity has been ongoing to varying degrees since the Russians withdrew from the west side of the river, and routinely consists of squad-sized Russian forces landing on one or more islands, setting up an observation post, and then getting pushed off several days later, only to repeat the process on another island, almost immediately, and sometimes hitting several islands at once.

Air Operations 

On the night of 16 December Russian forces launched 31 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed that they shot down 20 drones and that 10 drones became lost (brought down by EW), and that 1 drone was unaccounted for. The Kyiv government reported falling debris caused minor damage to civilian buildings, with damage reported in three separate areas of the city.

Blogger reporting claims that Ukrainian forces conducted 7,339 drone strikes in 2024, a rate of 21 drone strikes per day for the year, the overwhelming majority being in border regions and in occupied Ukraine.

Politics and Diplomacy

Zelenskyy comments on the war:

"I insist that no leader in the world has the right to negotiate with Putin on behalf of Ukraine. We have never delegated this mandate to anyone. We are the victims. It would be unfair if everyone started saying how the country should live. The French people in France, Italians in Italy or Americans in the United States know what they want for themselves. So do Ukrainians.”

"It's not about the person in front of you. What matters is the state you are in during the negotiations. I don't think we are in a weak position, but we are not in a strong position either. Are we in NATO? We don't know. Will we be part of the European Union? Yes, in the future, but when? To sit down with Putin under such conditions would mean giving him the right to decide everything in our part of the world. First, we need to create a model, an action plan or a peace plan, whatever you want to call it. Then we can present it to Putin or, more broadly, to Russians.”

"We cannot give up our territories. The Constitution of Ukraine forbids us to do so. De facto, these territories are now controlled by the Russians. We do not have the strength to return them. We can only count on diplomatic pressure from the international community to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. I wonder: why is the West, which supports us, taking a soft position towards him? Why have we not received massive arms supplies from the very beginning of the war? My comments may seem presumptuous. But I have the impression that everyone is terrified of Putin's Russia. He enjoys impunity. We need a strong America and a strong Europe to put pressure on Putin and stop this war.”

"Who can guarantee that Putin will not return to Ukraine [after a ceasefire is established]? What country will help us with its aircraft and troops? All we have now are bilateral guarantees from our partners regarding military and financial support. But if Putin comes back with his millions of people, will we be defending ourselves again? Or will we watch our women and children die? This is not an issue of joining NATO, this is an issue of ensuring our security.”

Finally, Zelenskyy noted during a video conference with Le Parisien readers that “President-elect Donald Trump is aware of Ukraine's reluctance to surrender and freeze the war.”

The EU issued a new set of sanctions on both individuals and companies on December 16th, to include many Chinese companies and individuals; now Beijing has issued a statement in which they stated that would continue to cooperate with Russia.

“The normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian enterprises should not be disrupted or influenced, China will take the necessary measures to resolutely protect the proper and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.”

NATO Secretary General Rutte met with President Zelenskyy on Wednesday and later Rutte commented on the main points of the meeting

“The first thing is to provide Ukraine with more air defence assets and other weapons, particularly Patriot air defence missile systems.

"And secondly, to discuss the economy. That's why also the President of the Commission and the President of the European Council will participate, because there is a lot to be discussed in terms of how to support the Ukrainian economy.”

The EU will give Ukraine 4.1 billion euros ($4.5 billion) as part of the Ukraine Facility program, bring 2024 aid to Ukraine from the EU to 16.1 billion Euros ($17.5 billion).

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec17 Dec18

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 72.87 73.49

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 69.66 70.68

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.11 3.37

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.45 5.41

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 103.73 104.64

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.88 41.97

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.58 67.09

ESPO 65 77 77 77 74.27 74.99

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 68.01 67.23

Thoughts

Unconfirmed reporting from pro-Russian sources suggests that Ukrainian missile usage has dropped off in recent weeks as the Ukrainian army is building up stockpiles in anticipation of a new counter-offensive. 

In addition, there is reporting that 10 x strategic reserve brigades have moved forward during the past few weeks, into the north-east corner of Ukraine and that the Ukrainians will attempt to drive into Russia again and seize another salient on Russian soil, prior to the Trump inaugural, in an effort to change the balance on the battlefield and improve their bargaining position.

All this is completely unconfirmed but western media has been remarkably cooperative throughout the war in not reporting any such movement, so it can’t be discounted.

What is not clear is what success such a Ukrainian assault would have in both securing more Russian territory, and how it would affect Russian operations in eastern Ukraine.

Arguably, Russian actions around Pokrovsk and in south-east Ukraine are on the verge of noted success in getting behind - west of - Pokrovsk and if they can do so, the Ukrainian army will need to respond, casting doubt on the value of any offensive to grab Russian land.

v/r pete