December 9th, 2024

Politics & Diplomacy - Zelenskyy and Trump talk

Ground Ops           - Russian gains south, south-east of Pokrovsk 

Aid                   - $988 Million in weapons and ammo

Weather - Weather cold this week

Kharkiv

37 and cloudy.  light snow. Rain tonight and Wednesday, turning into snow Thursday morning. Cloudy into the weekend. Highs and lows will be in the 30s through Wednesday, then temperatures will start to fall and will hit mid teens by Saturday morning with windchill in low single digits. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

37 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Rain tonight and tomorrow, cloudy the rest of the week. Tomorrow lows and highs will be in the 40s, then temperatures start dropping and by Saturday morning the temperature will be in the high teens, with windchill in single digits.  Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 23. Snow tomorrow, rain showers possible Wednesday and Thursday, cloudy through the week. Daily lows will be at or just below freezing, daily highs will be just above freezing. Winds variable, 10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy 

President Elect Trump and President Zelenskyy spoke in Paris at the re-opening of Notre Dame cathedral; Trump said that Zelenskyy is ready to make peace. Zelenskyy later posted what they had talked about:

Zelenskyy:

We discussed important issues on the battlefield and in the global situation, from our frontlines to North Korea. I stated that we need a just and enduring peace—one that the Russians will not be able to destroy in a few years, as they have done repeatedly in the past. This is clear not only for our country and region.

We see how Russia is now trying to subjugate Georgia after several wars against that country. Russia still does not want to ease its grip on Moldova. Now the Russians are retreating from Syria, but that does not mean they will not try to sow death there again. Russian military presence is also active in Africa, with the sole purpose of destabilization.

Therefore, when we talk about effective peace with Russia, we must first and foremost talk about effective guarantees for peace. Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else. Russia brought war to our land, and it is Russia that most seeks to disrupt the possibility of peace.

Updated data on Russian losses show over 750,000 casualties, including 198,000 killed and more than 550,000 wounded. Our people are defending their homes at the cost of their lives, and every life—of our soldiers and our civilians—is precious to us. 

Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in action on the battlefield. There have been 370,000 cases of medical assistance for the wounded. It also needs to be mentioned that in our army approximately half of the soldiers wounded in action are later returning to the battlefield, and that our data also includes light or repeat injuries. 

One of the key distinctions between the Russian army and Ukraine’s Defense Forces is the level of frontline medicine, which is significantly higher in our forces. We are deeply grateful to everyone who supports its development, saves our wounded in action, and facilitates their rehabilitation.

Since September this year, Russia has been losing troops on the battlefield at a ratio of 5-to-1, or even 6-to-1, compared to us. They want to seize more land before global pressure on them becomes unbearable.

Additionally, we must not forget our people in Russian captivity—thousands of both military personnel and civilians, some of whom have been held since 2014, when the occupation began. Since February 24, 2022, we have already managed to bring 3,935 of our people home—3,767 soldiers and 168 civilians. But we must bring everyone back, and much work remains to be done. We must also establish the truth about all our people who are missing.

We must also remember the Ukrainian children deported by Russia. Russians themselves admit that these abducted children number in the hundreds of thousands, dispersed across their territory. Returning them is the most challenging task. On the occupied territories of Ukraine, at least several million people remain.

This is the reality of this war. It cannot simply end with a piece of paper and a few signatures. A ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done before. To ensure that Ukrainians no longer suffer losses, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to occupation.

We know Putin very well—he is addicted to war. He began his career with a brutal war against Chechnya and has been constantly fueling other wars. He can only be stopped by strength—the strength of world leaders who can become leaders of peace. We count on America and the entire world to help stop Putin. The only things he fears are America and global unity.

It is precisely such peace through strength that we discuss with all our partners, as well as the steps and guarantees needed for the people and the state attacked by Russia. War cannot be endless—only peace must be permanent and reliable.

After meeting with Trump and Macron, Zelenskyy said he insisted on "effective guarantees of peace.”

Zelenskyy also said that he was hoping to talk with President Biden:

“…to discuss the question of an invitation [for Ukraine] to join NATO… He is the current president and a lot rides on his opinion. Discussing it with Trump before he takes office doesn’t make so much sense.”

Trump made a few brief comments after the meeting, including calling for a ceasefire:

"He wants to make peace. That's new.”

"He wants to have a ceasefire. He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details. He thinks it’s time, and Putin should think its time because he’s lost — when you lose 700,000 people, it’s time. It’s not going to end until there’s a peace.”

“I’m formulating a concept of how to end this ridiculous war.”

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces made gains over the weekend, and reestablished a smaller salient south-east of Korenevo, while Russian forces made gains just south of the Ukrainian gains, a yin-yang tactical move which is going to leave someone in danger of getting isolated, although exactly who isn’t clear right now. A bit further south there are reports of Ukrainian forces attacking near Darino, just over the border at the left center of the salient, but there are no confirmed changes in terrain held.

On the other side of the salient, Russian forces appear to have made small gains south of Sudzha 

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued throughout the weekend but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along essentially the entire line of contact but there were few confirmed gains or losses. There are multiple unconfirmed reports of Russian gains in the center (west of Svatove), but they remain mostly unconfirmed. However, in one spot, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported troops in contact imagery near Kruhlyakivka, and imagery confirmed Russian gains in that area along the Oskil River.

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Inside Chasiv Yar fighting continues on the east side of the ceramics plant, and house-to-house fighting continues in there south-east corner of the town. As usual, fighting see-saws back and forth several blocks at a time for several days until one side or the other gains control of the block, then they move to the next block.

Just south of Chasiv Yar, in the mining town of Stupochky, it appears that Russian forces have pushed a street or two further into that town, but whether that is part of the grinding give-and-take or permanent has yet to be resolved.

Further south, the UGS reported an engagement just a mile east of Bila Hora (a small village about half way between Toretsk and Bakhmut). More to the point, the town is 3 miles west of the Donets Canal and the reported skirmish took place 2 miles west of the canal; which if accurate suggests the Russians are moving aggressively west from their positions along the canal. This bears close watching.

Fighting also continued in Toretsk; Russian forces continue to attack into the center of the town, while Russian forces south of the town press westward. But there were no confirmed gains over the last several days.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to attack along the south-west and southern perimeters of the Pokrovsk salient, and continue to make gains pushing south, and now south-west, of that town.

From Hrodivka south-west to Novotroitske (and south from that town) multiple engagement were reported, and Russian forces made small gains at several points along that line; Russian forces near Pushkine (9 miles south of Pokrovsk) made gains further west towards the small town of Ukrainka (almost 2 miles further west and a bit south form Pushkine (there are multiple towns named Ukrainka, so this can get confusing)). 

South-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to clear small towns and straighten lines, and Russian forces now control the entire north and west banks of the Kurakhove reservoir and appear to be about to hook around that west end and press east and squeeze the Ukrainian forces that are holding the town of Kurakhove.

Just to the south of Kurakhove, the Russians are continuing a slow grind from 3 angles on the Sukhi Yaly valley (dry shore river), pushing in from the south-east while squeezing it from the north and south.

Around Velyka Novosilke fighting was noted to the north-east, east, south and south-west of that town but there were no confirmed gains.

Russian bloggers noted that the town of Blahodatne (3 miles south of Velyka Novosilke (VN), on the Mokri Yaly River (wet shore river)  was taken by the Russians (but this has not been confirmed). Fighting around VN appears to be quite intense - the Ukrainians need to hold this position.

Southern Ukraine 

Probes, drone strikes and artillery fire continued along the southern front and the Dnepr river but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. That said, the maps of the front lines suggests that the Russian army is oozing its way towards Orikhiv, with Russian forces to the south-west just 4 miles from the center of Orikhov.

Air Operations

On the night of December 9th Russian forces launched 2 x cruise missiles and 37 x Shahed into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 missiles and 18 drones, and 18 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW).

On the night of December 8th and morning of the 9th, Russian forces launched 2 x missiles (not further identified) and 18 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down all drones and missiles.

On the night of December 7th Russian forces launched 74 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 28 drones and 46 drones were “lost,” (defeated by EW).

On the night of December 6th Russian forces launched 1 x missile (not identified) and 14 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 7 drones, 6 drones were “lost,” (defeated by EW), and one drone returned to Russian airspace. There was no reporting on the missile.

On the night of December 5th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander K cruise missiles, 1 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and 53 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 32 drones, 16 drones were “lost,” (defeated by EW), and two drones flew into Belarus airspace. Kryvyi Rih officials said the cruise missiles struck an administration building and killed 2. The Kh-59/69 struck the power grid and caused minor damage.

Overall, Russian forces used 20 x missiles, 500 x Shahed drones, and 500 - FAB bombs against Ukrainian targets during the past week.

Aid 

DOD announced another aid package to Ukraine on December 7th worth $988 million, including HIMARS ammo and support gear, tanks, and armored vehicles; and unmanned aerial systems (UAS). This follows close on the heals of a $725 million Presidential Drawdown transfer just 4 days ago.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec6 Dec9

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 71.06 72.63

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 67.22 68.85

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.08 3.17

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.57 5.59

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.27 100.84

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.45 41.55

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.20 66.19

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.73 65.32

Thoughts

Several thoughts:

The give and take in the Kursk salient, and the Russian seeming willingness to let this continue, rather than investing the forces to “clear Russian territory,” may simply be the obvious: they want to keep forces invested in Ukraine as long as they are winning rather than moving forces and suffering the consequences.

But is has a certain “rope-a-dope” feel to it, they want to let the Ukrainians make gains every few days so they don’t pull forces back and recommit them to various spots along the line.

That even makes sense, as long as it works. But as was just demonstrated in Syria, wars have a habit of not turning out the way people think.

As for Syria and its impact in Ukraine, it could go either way: Putin sees a need to end the war before things get worse, etc., OR he now sees a need for a “win” and may even be feeling boxed in and hence is more dangerous now than he was a week ago.

As for President Zelenskyy remarks, he wants an enduring peace, everyone does. But there is no such thing as an enduring peace. As Clausewitz commented: “Lastly, even the ultimate outcome of a war is not always to be regarded as final. The defeated state often considers the outcome merely as a transitory evil for which a remedy will be found at a later date.”

Those places where there have been years long stand-offs - Korea, Europe during the Cold War, India and Pakistan, etc., have endured through hard and constant effort; no major wars, but not peace in the classic sense. Between 1800 and 1945 Germany and France fought 4 major wars - 25 years of war, each followed by “peace.”

There will be no “enduring peace.” 

v/r pete