December 13th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south Pokrovsk 

- Task Group Commander relieved 

Air Operations  - Major strike, 50% without power

Economy - India makes oil deal

Weather

Kharkiv

21 and cloudy, gusting over 20, windchill 9. Snow or rain-snow mix through Tuesday. Temperatures on Saturday low 20s, then high 20s to low 30s for 4 days, windchills in the teens. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

24 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 25, windchill low teens. Saturday clear, then cloudy for the next 5 days, rain possible Sunday and then again Monday night. Temperatures in the 20s all day tomorrow, then climbing into the 30s on Sunday and will remain in the 30s for several days. Winds variable, 10-20kts.

Kyiv

20 and clear. Partly cloudy Saturday, then three days of snow or rain-now mix, with a windy Monday. Temperatures in the 20s until Monday morning, followed by 3 days in the 30s. Winds variable, 15-20kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces had confirmed gains south of Subzha, and have retaken the town of Plekhovo, about 6 miles south-south-east of Subzha. Russian forces also claim that they have retaken the town of Darino on the west side of the salient, just above the Ukrainian border.  While that does pinch the Ukrainian side of the Salient a bit, the major lines of communication into and out of the salient runs west-south-west of Subzha, and with are currently in Ukrainian hands. One of them, the Southern most, is threatened by Russian forces in Plekhovo, but the main road, the P200 Roadway is currently secure.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both of the two small Russian salients into Ukrainian territory, but neither side gained any ground. Of note, Russian Air Force assets conducted multiple strikes around both salients yesterday.

North of the Donets River 

Fighting continues along the entire lone of contact. West of Svatove Ukrainian forces have regained the town of Kopanky (about 14 miles west-south-west of Svatove, about 6 miles east-south-east of Lozova. Overall, intense fighting continues along the much of the line, though there was commentary that near the southern end of the line (just north of the Donets River), poor weather was limiting some operations. Also, there would seem to be a rise on the number of Russian tacair strikes flown along most of the line, but there were no other gains or losses noted by either side.

Bakhmut

Fighting continued north and northeast of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or loses of terrain.

In the Chasiv Yar areas, Russian forces were confirmed to have swept through Kalynivka, just north-north-west of Chasiv Yar and that pockets of resistance in that town appear to have been cleared. 

In Chasiv Yar itself Russian forces are reportedly now clearing the ceramics plant in the center of the town. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported more engagements in the vicinity of Bila Hora, agains suggesting that Russian forces have pushed west of the Donets Canal, west of Klishchivka; the UGS report suggests Russian forces more than a mile west of the canal.

Fighting continues in Torestsk but there were no confirmed gains or losses. Russian tacair conducted strikes in support of the army inside Toretsk yesterday.

Donetsk City

Imagery confirmed Russian control of Novotroitske (6 miles south-west of Pokrovsk) and have pushed through the town and are now pushing west from that town. Novotroitske is a small (6,200 people in 2022), densely populated town, that has been empty for much of the last 3 years. Russian forces also appear to control Shevchenko (2 miles north-east of Novotroitske). Ukrainian forces were counter-attacking with of these areas from the west as of this afternoon.

Shevchenko is also a small town, but on the eastern edge of the town lies one of four major lithium deposits in Ukraine; under a strip of land 3,500 x 700 feet lies a despot that some have estimated might contain more than $1 trillion in lithium (some estimates run to several trillion), though no extraction of ore has begun so there is no clear data on how much recoverable lithium is present in nay of these four deposits. There are also traces of rubidium, cesium, tantalum, niobium, beryllium and tin, though it has not been determined if those are present in recoverable amounts. The field is estimated to contain 5.67 million tons of C1 ore (hard rock) and 8 million tons of C2 ore (sedimentary rock). Currently, lithium is selling for $76,000 / ton.

Russian forces have also pushed further north and UGS reporting notes that Russian recon teams were engaged as they tried to enter Pokrovsk.

Ukraine Pravda reports that, as of this morning, the Ukrainian commander of the Donetsk Task Group, BGEN Lutsenko, was removed from command.

To the south-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces control north and immediately west of the Kurakhove reservoir, and continue to slowly grind into Kurakhova and into the terrain south of the town, and appear to be slowly closing off pockets of Ukraine troops.

A bit further to the south Russian troops have nearly closed of a pincer across the Sukhi Yaly RIver, with a single road running out of the pocket and Ukraine troops holding the Russians, and holding open a gap that is 500 - 600 yards wide. Ukrainian forces will need to keep that gap open if they wish to withdraw to the west.

Further to the south, fighting continues around Velyka Novosilke (VN) but there were no confirmed gains or losses. The Russians continue their effort to press north from Rivnopil (south-west of VN), north from Blahodatne and west from just east of Novyi Komar, but for two days now the Ukrainians have held their ground.

Southern Ukraine

There was only scattered reporting on southern Ukraine, with Russian attacks taking place north of Robotyne, but there were no confirmed gains. 

There were also reports of small unit attacks continuing on the Dnepr River, but no terrain was gained by the Russians.

Air Operations 

After a very low number of drone sorties on Wednesday night, Russian forces last night and this morning conducted one of the largest series of missile and roe strikes into Ukraine since the war began.

Overall, the strike consisted of 94 missiles and 193 drones:

• 4 x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missiles
• 2 x Iskander-M ballistic missiles
• 1 x KN-23 ballistic missile
• 55 x Kh-101 or Kh-55SM ballistic missiles
• 24 x Kalibr cruise missiles 
• 7 x Isklander cruise missiles 
• 1 x Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missile
• 193 x Shahed drones

The UAF claimed it shot down:

• 80 x Kh-101/Kh-55SM/Kalibr/Iskander-K cruise missiles
• 1 x Iskander-M ballistic missile
• 80 x Shahed drones

105 drones failed to reach their targets - were defeated by EW, and an additional 5 drones returned to Russian airspace and 1 drone flew into Belarus.

As a result of the strikes, Ukrenergo estimated that 50% of residences throughout the country would be without power today.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike into Crimea on the night of the 11th, launching at least 8 and perhaps 9 drones, and claimed it shot down or defeated all the drones.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on a warehouse on a Russian military base Novosibirsk (not further identified, anti suffered major damage due to a fire.

Politics

SecState Blinken announced a $500 million transfer Thursday afternoon, which will include more HIMARS rockets, other ammunition, and armored vehicles. This is in addition to a $988 million and $725 million package announced earlier this month.

The administration still has $5.6 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority remaining.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec12 Dec13

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 73.77 74.41

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 70.54 71.17

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.37 3.28

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.61 5.52

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 103.70 104.53

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.67 41.69

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.79 66.93

ESPO 65 77 77 77 75.27 75.91

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 67.49 67.25

India and Russia have signed an agreement in which Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, will provide Reliance Oil, India’s largest private oil refining company, 500,000 barrels of oil per day for 10 years. At current prices this works out to roughly $13 billion over the course of 10 years.

Thoughts

The relief of the BGEN in Pokrovsk comes on the heels of GEN Syrskyi’s visit to the front lines there a few days ago; clearly he didn’t like what he saw. Sitting here 5,000 miles away, there is a lot not to like from the Ukrainian perspective; Russian operations grind forward - at a decent rate for the Russians, and there are multiple spots ont he lean that could get worse quickly for the Ukrainian army. 

Most importantly, there are several pockets of Ukrainian forces from Pokrovsk and to the south that will probably need to be withdrawn in the near term or be lost. The line is not holding around Pokrovsk because, again, the defensive positions were never fully developed.

Interestingly, there was an article in the Kyiv Post this morning talking about how complete the new defensive positions were. Unfortunately, it read more like propaganda than it did like a news story.

Meanwhile, Putin appears to be staking out some ground in the wake of the diplomatic firestorm that is the incoming Trump administration. Trump has a great deal of momentum, Putin pushes back with a major air strike in response to Trump’s recent statement, assuredly to test Trump’s resolve. And at the same time the Russian strikes serve the ongoing Russian operations. And still 38 days to go in the current administration.

 

v/r pete