December 19th, 2024

Ground Ops  - Russia gains south of Pokrovsk 

- Russia gains around Velyka Novosilke, Sukhi Yaly River 

Politics - Germany UK -Aid

- Putin says he is ready to talk 

Weather

Kharkiv

36 and cloudy gusting to 20. Cloudy for the next week, rain likely Saturday through Monday. Temperatures will see lows in the low 30s and highs near 40. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20.  Mostly sunny on Friday, then cloudy and rain for 4 days. Daily highs in the mid to upper 40s, lows in the 30s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

41 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Mostly cloudy for the next week; rain possible Friday night. Temperatures in the upper 30s for Friday and Saturday, then Sunday and Monday will be below freezing all day, with lows in the mid 20s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting was reported on both the east and west perimeter of the salient, but there were no confirmed gains or losses. The major story appears to be the continued reporting of North Korean casualties (approximately 200 total so far) and that the Russians have yet to refer to the Korean soldiers as Koreans.

Russian casualties through the course of the war have averaged a bit less than 1/10th of 1% per day. The North Korea force has been in combat for about 35 - 40 days; that would seem to be roughly consistent with Russian casualties.

North of Kharkiv

Russian forces in Vovchansk made small gains pushing south, but there were no other confirmed gains or losses.

North of the Donets River

Russian forces made small gains north of Kupyansk, along the Oskil river near Dvorichna, and also made small gains near Terny on the Zherebets river. There is unconfirmed reporting that Russian forces also may have gained some ground west of Svatove, pushing south-west from the general area of Lozova, and advancing as much as a mile. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north-east of Bakhmut (east and south-east of Siversk) but there were no confirmed gains. That said, it does appear that the tale told last week of Russian forces being routed needs be taken with a grain of salt, the Russian position remains just a few miles east of Siversk, confirmed by Ukrainian General Staff reports of engagements in that area.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues in Chasiv Yar and reporting continues to reflect that Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting for control of the ceramics plant inside the town.

Further south in Toretsk, both sides made gains, with Ukrainian forces retaking ground in Shcherbynivka while Russian forces were pushing westward from Nelipivka (just south-east of Shcherbynivka). 

Donetsk City

Russian forces south of Pokrovsk continue to advance westward and appear to have pushed in Solona, control Shevchenko and Novyi Trud, and there’s unconfirmed reporting that Russian forces are attacking into Pishchane (just west of Shevchenko, about 2.5 miles from Pokrovsk).

Russian forces in the vicinity of  Kurakhove and the reservoir continued to attack Ukrainian positions but there were no confirmed gains or losses, and Ukrainian forces continue to hold into the center of Kurakhove.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to gain ground and although not confirmed by imagery, it appears Russian forces now control essentially all of the Sukhi Yaly river valley south of Kurakhove, pushing into Zelenivka, Sukhi Yaly (the town), Kostiantinopolske, and Uspenivka. The would-be salient that was the Sukhi Yaly River basin east of the O-0510 roadway has been closed and cleared and the Russians look to next close the pocket  between the Sukhi Yaly river and the H15 roadway in the next week. Ukrainian General Staff reporting suggests the Russian forces have pushed west of the T0518 Roadway, which runs from Velyka Novisilke north to the H15.

Fighting continues around Velyka Novosilke (VN), and while gains could not be independently confirmed, Ukrainian forces in the area reported that Russian forces had moved in Makarivka (south of VN) and Novyi Komar (north of VN). Russian sources report that both towns are now in control of Russian forces, and Ukrainian General Staff reports seem to support that conclusion.

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces continued small unit actions across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River but there were no confirmed gains or losses of any terrain.

Air Operations

On the night of the 18th Russian forces launched drones and missiles into Ukrainian airspace, causing damage to the power grid in Kryvyi Rih, with at least two reported hits by “high speed” objects.

On the night of the 17th Russian forces launched 81 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 51 drones and that 30 drones were “lost" (defeated by EW).

Ukraine forces report that they struck the Kamensky Chemical plant in Rostov Oblast (located some 80 miles north-north-east of Rostov-on-Don). Russian sources claimed they shot down 10 missiles over Rostov oblast; of course, how many you shoot down doesn’t count, how many get through does. Russia later claimed that these were mainly ATACMS missiles.

Overall, Russian sources reported that Ukraine forces had 84 x drones and 13 missiles, and that Russian forces - they claimed - shot down all the drones and at least 10 of the 13 ATACMS missiles.

Two explosions were reported on the naval base in Murmansk, Russia, before dawn this morning. Murmansk is the major base of Russia’s Northern Fleet.

Politics 

Germany announced that Rheinmetal will begin providing 155MM propellant to Ukraine in January, and that there is an unspecified number of artillery rounds to be delivered next year, as well as Lynx IFVs

UK Defense Secretary Healey announced a 225 million pound ($281 million) aid package for Ukraine. The package includes small boats, reconnaissance drones, electronic warfare systems, ammunition, and spare parts support for various systems.

Healey also noted that the UK would continue to provide training to Ukrainian forces in addition to these aid packages.

President Putin said that he was ready to discuss compromise concerning Ukraine with President Trump.

“We have always said that we are ready for negotiations and compromises.”

“Soon, those Ukrainians who want to fight will run out, in my opinion, soon there will be no one left who wants to fight. We are ready, but the other side needs to be ready for both negotiations and compromises,”

Putin said he had not spoken to Trump for several years but would be happy to meet with him.

“If we meet with Mr. Trump, we will have things to discuss,”

“Russia has become much stronger over the past two or three years because it has become a truly sovereign country. We are standing firm in terms of economy, we are strengthening our defense potential, and our military capability now is the strongest in the world.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec18 Dec19

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 73.49 72.67

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 70.68 70.10

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.37 3.55

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.41 5.32

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 104.64 103.50

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.97 41.92

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.09 68.50

ESPO 65 77 77 77 74.99 74.17

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 67.23 67.14

Thoughts

There have been a number of editorials lately, by noted folks, calling for either arming Ukraine to the teeth and fighting Russia to the death, not surrendering to nuclear blackmail, or, working immediately on a ceasefire. 

The problem with both positions is reality. I’ll explain by way of an example.

A few hours after the attack on Pearl Harbor Japanese forces began their attack on the Philippines. That situation deteriorated rapidly, and as you’ll recall, eventually led to US and Philippine forces trying to hold the line on the Bataan peninsula and the island of Corregidor. One of the generals who moved in the immediate wake of the attack on Pearl Harbor was brand new Brigadier Eisenhower, transferred to the Army Staff. As things started to deteriorate in the Philippines, Gen. Marshall asked Eisenhower for an assessment of the situation. Eisenhower came back to Marshal (first week of January 1942) with the conclusion that there was no possibility of relieving the forces in the Philippines, and that further, using assets to attempt relief would be a waste of assets that would prolong the war. Marshall agreed. And, while MG Patrick Hurley (Secretary of War under Hoover) was sent to Australia with $10 million in cash to do what he could, Marshall and Eisenhower knew it would not succeed; the effort was more to show that something was being done rather than a meaningful attempt to rectify the situation.

The key to all this was an accurate assessment of the reality: the size and disposition of Japanese forces, US forces, Philippine forces, the availability of relief forces, weapons, aircraft, ammo etc., the availability of ships to get the supplies there, the probability of getting the supplies past the Japanese Navy, etc., etc.

Marshall and Eisenhower had accurate enough data to make an accurate assessment.

This is what is missing in the discourse on Ukraine; What are the real casualty figures, both in Ukraine and Russia? What is the real manpower pool for future recruitment  and training? What are the weapons stockpiles and current and future weapon production rates? We know to a certainty that the casualty numbers that are passed around - both Russian and Ukrainian, are heavily manipulated for propaganda effect. We know both sides have had problems with recruitment. We know both sides have gone through tremendous amounts of ammunition and other supplies; we know both economies are under great strain.

The decision was made by the Ukrainian government - in spring of 2022 - to fight a war of attrition. This was done after the Russians changed their tactics to generating casualties as the first consideration, and taking terrain second. Ukraine made a conscious decision to not give any ground in the fight, in effect, accepting the attrition model. 

Where does that leave Ukraine and the West? Much where Marshall was in January of 1942: in need of an accurate assessment of what can and can’t be done. Russia’s economy is now experiencing heightened inflation. But the #1 threat to Russia’s economy - low energy prices - has not been pursued for more than 3 years. Russian ESPO crude now sells at a premium to Brent crude. Is it likely that Russia’s economy is going to break in the next 12-24 months? 

Recognizing that Russia now has nearly 5 times as many people as Ukraine, and that, apart from propaganda, Ukraine and Russia have probably suffered similar numbers of casualties, attrition warfare for another year or two might not be the best strategy; only with the real numbers can accurate answers be generated. That is what the next administration needs: an Eisenhower to make an honest assessment of what is possible and what is not.

v/r pete