December 12th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south Pokrovsk 

Diplomacy - Talk about talks

Weather

Kharkiv

29 and cloudy, gusting over 25, windchill low 20s. Snow showers every day for the next week except Saturday. Temperatures falling, will be in the low 20s through Sunday morning, then back to the high 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

32 and cloudy, gusting over 25, windchill low 20s. Tomorrow party cloudy and windy, Saturday sunny, then clouds and rain showers return for a week. Tomorrow in the high 20s, Saturday low 20s, then Sunday back into the 30s.  Winds westerly, 25 tomorrow, then back to 5-10kts.

Kyiv

30 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 21. Partly cloudy Friday and Saturday, then cloudy and occasional rain or snow showers for the following week.Temperatures tomorrow in the mid 20s, Saturday in high teens to low 20s, Sunday back into the high 20s. Winds westerly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces again had small, confirmed gains on the west side of the salient, pushing into the Ukrainian controlled terrain south of Novolvanovka (a few miles north of Ukrainian territory). Fighting also continues just to the south of this assault, in the town of Darino, and Russian sources say that town is now under Russian control. 

On the east side of the salient Russian forces, to include Spetsnaz units, are active south of Subzha.

North of Kharkiv 

Fighting continues in the two small salients north of Kharkiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces. Fighting continues west of Svatove, to include along the Oskil from Nova Kruhliakivka north past Kolisnykivka, but there were no changes in the line. Of note, the salient that had been reported by some bloggers to extend westward from just south of Lozova to the eastern edge of Novoplatonivka, has been eliminated - and presumably never really existed. 

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there has been no substantive change along the lines here, nor has there been any since at least late November.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain. However, several unconfirmed reports claim that the Russians have taken control of the ceramics plant in north-central Chasiv Yar. 

Just south of Chasiv Yar, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported troops in contact on the south-east edge of Stupochky; this has not been geolocated but the UGS report suggests Russian forces have pushed a bit south and west, advancing down the road towards Predtechyne, which will also allow them to threaten Stupochky from the south.

 Further south, there were confirmed Russian gains in Toretsk in street-to-street fighting in central and south-central Torestk, with Russian forces pushing slowly westward. There are multiple claims of which street they are advancing on, on any given day, but reporting is consistent of some advances, and concomitant reports that the city is, as with other cities during the war, being reduced to rubble as the Russians advance.  Russian forces are also holding in central Shcherbynivka, holding Ukrainian forces to the west and north. 

Donetsk City

Overall, the Russian thrust on Pokrovsk continues to gain ground, with Russian forces due east of Pokrovsk grinding forward very slowly, while Russian forces to the south continue to push west and slowly turn north, a large hook to attack Pokrovsk and points west and north of Pokrovsk by getting behind the well developed defensive lines on the east side of Pokrovsk and striking the less well developed defenses to the south and to the rear (west) of that town.

Russian forces south of Pokrovsk pushed through Novyi Trud and possibly Shevchenko, and are drawing nearer to the southern side of Pokrovsk itself, with point elements about 1.5 miles south-west of Pokrovsk. 

Further south and east Russian forces made only small gains on Kurakhove, but it appears the Russian forces have brought the H15 roadway under close direct fire, about 3 miles west of Kurakhove, with Russian forces les than 1 mile from the roadway. Ukrainian forces may still get some supplies through, but it will be a steeply declining curve and unless Ukrainian forces can push back the Russian pincer coming from the north, Kurkhove will not be able to hold for long.

Russian forces continue to squeeze the Sulki Yaly river valley and the small towns that line the river. Reports conflict as to how far they have progressed, but the valley’s east end is being pinched and overall, Ukrainian controlled territory is slowly closing up.

  Fighting continues around Velyka Novosilke (VN) but there were no confirmed gains by Russian forces. South of VN, two Russian brigades are attacking north into VN out of Blahodatne. A bit further to the south-west and west, a total of 5 Russian brigades are attacking up the Mokri Yaly River and out of Rivnopil in the general direction of VN. Russian AF conducted tacair strikes in VN.

General Syrskyi was in Pokrovsk yesterday and commented on the battle:

"At the moment, battles are ongoing on the Pokrovsk axis with an enemy superior, primarily in manpower. We have to make unconventional decisions to increase the stability of the defense and more effectively destroy the occupiers.

"In such conditions, our main task is to strengthen the defense, in particular, to provide the units with a sufficient amount of ammunition and their constant transportation.

"The combat is quite tough. Russian invaders throw forward all available forces in an attempt to break through our troops' defenses….Ukrainian soldiers are showing extraordinary resilience and inflicting significant losses on the enemy.”

Southern Ukraine

Russian troops were reported to be probing near Kamianske (on the banks of the Dnepr) and Stepnohirsk (3 miles to the north) was struck by artillery fire.

Fighting was also reported near Kozatskyi Island (just west of Nova Kakhovka, about 35 miles up river from Kherson), but there were no changes to terrain held.

Air Operations

On the 12th at least 19 x Shahed drones were launched into Ukrainian airspace.

On the night of the 11th Russian forces launched 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles against the Ukrainian power grid. The UAF claimed it shot down both missiles; local government sources in Dnipropetrovsk reported damage to a gas pipeline, electricity transmission lines, and a residential area. 

The Ukrainian General Staff claimed that, on the 11th, Ukrainian drones struck a distribution point on the Druzhba oil pipeline in Bryansk (north of Ukraine) causing a major fire. Russian forces claimed to have shot down 14 drones in that area.

Concerning the ATACMS strike on the airfield at Taganrog, Russian MinDef is claiming that two ATACMS were shot down, and 4 were defeated electronically.  Jamming GPS is an “end game” effort that defeats precision strike; it doesn’t take place during the middle of the missiles flight. Post mortem imagery that shows the actual miss distance would be interesting.

Politics and Diplomacy

As preliminary discussions take place for the coming peace negotiations, countries are staring to carve out there starting bargaining positions.

Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk staked out some ground this morning, stating that Poland will not send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. During a press conference with President Macron of France, President Tusk said:

"To cut off speculation about the potential presence of one or another country in Ukraine after a ceasefire is reached... Decisions regarding Poland will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw.”

Elsewhere, other European nations appear to be coming down on various sides of that issue. According to 5 European diplomats - not further identified, France, the United Kingdom, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia,, Lithuania), and Finland, Norway and Sweden have all considered the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire, though of course, no final decision has been or will be made for quite a while.

But there is no consensus among Europe as a whole.

President Macron of France first publicly proposed the idea last March. Among others, Germany rejected the idea.

On the other side, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the SVR (Sluzhba Vneshney Razvedki Rossiyskoy Federatsii - Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation) seems to be staking out the Russian negotiation position, saying that the Russians have nearly achieved their aims.

‘The situation on the front is not in Kyiv's favor, The strategic initiative in all areas belongs to us, we are close to achieving our goals, while the armed forces of Ukraine are on the verge of collapse.”

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec11 Dec12

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 72.86 73.77

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 69.36 70.54

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.32 3.37

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.68 5.61

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 107.48 103.70

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.70 41.67

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 67.00 67.79

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77 75.27*

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 66.51 67.49

ESPO for the last week has been sold at a a premium of 1.50 on Brent

Thoughts

First, Just to clarify - my thoughts yesterday were about the start of the negotiations - not the end - My point being is that the start will see a ceasefire and then all sorts of things on both sides - calls for war crimes trials, remunerations, land, exchanges of personnel, recovery of personnel, etc., etc. Those will mark the start of negotiations. I don’t think many of those demands by either side will be met.  Rather, there will be a ceasefire, and some moving of troops, perhaps some European troops in Ukraine (see comments above about Polish and other European troops). I would not be surprised to see a THAAD unit end up in Ukraine eventually. But the key item will be a ceasefire. And then, like Korea, a future starts… with negotiations that run on for years and may yield next to nothing. But the bloodletting will have stopped.

Casualty counts: A Ukrainian officer commented on Russian losses in the Pokrovsk theater (the most active theater and clearly the one with the most combat operations and therefore most casualties. He stated that the each Russian battalion was receiving 200 fresh troops per month. That would effectively constitute the replacement of a battalion (roughly 400 - 600 troops, depending on type of battalion) every 3 months. Ukrainian sources suggest there are 70,000 Russian troops in the Pokrovsk theater (that number is inflated a bit, but it would seem only a little).

Reviewing the maps in the various blogs there appears to be a consensus that there are 30-35 brigades and regiments (they are roughly the same size in the Russian force structure) in the Pokrovsk area, 24 - 25 forward and 6 - 10 in the rear - again depending on how you split the various theaters, and how various units are moving on any given day. 

There are nominally 3,000 troops in a Russian Brigade or regiment, though it can vary: infantry brigades have more people than artillery, which have more than tank brigades. And no one operates with full manning; 2,000 - 2,500 appears to be the range at which combat ready Russian brigades function.

30 brigades are not all engaged in heavy fighting. Looking at the map and comparing Russian unit locations to Ukrainian General Staff reports, would suggest that there are 12-15 brigades / regiments that are engaged in the heavy fighting, or perhaps 36 - 45 battalion, probably around 20 - 25,000 actual combat troops - engaged in combat. I would guess these are the units that are actually receiving fresh troops every month. If so, this would run to perhaps 8,000 fresh troops per month.

The Ukrainian reporting suggests that the Russians in this sector are taking 6,000 casualties per month, but, in fact, a good deal of this could be replacements, rotating troops out effectively every three months.

Over the course of the war so far, using the Mediazone and other statistics, Russia has averaged about 2500 KIA and 9-10,000 WIA per month in a force of about 450,000 - 500,000, or 2.5% casualties per month, with high months more than doubling that several times. For a force of 70,000 (those in the Pokrovsk area), that would equate to 1,750 total (KIA plus WIA) per month, concentrated in those 12-15 battalions. If you then doubled it, or a bit more to reflect the intense fighting of the past several months, you would end up with perhaps 4,000 total casualties per month among the Pokrovsk units.

v/r pete