December 17th, 2024 FIRST FLIGHT 1903

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south of Pokrovsk 

- Russian Mech Battalion routed

Air Operations  - Another drone strike

Politics - Russian LTGN assassinated 

Weather

Kharkiv

36 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Snow showers or rain-snow mix for the next week, except Friday. Temperatures will see lows in the 30s and highs near 40 except Wednesday night and Thursday morning when temperatures will dip into the mid 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

44 and rain showers, gusts over 30.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday, sunny on Friday, then clouds return. Daily highs in the low to mid 40s, lows in the 30s, except Thursday when morning temperatures will drop into the 20s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

37 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 30. Cloudy to partly cloudy for the next week; daily highs in the 30s, daily lows at or just below freezing, windchills in the low 20s. Winds westerly 20kts through Wednesday afternoon, then variable, 15-20kts.

Ground Operations 

Russia continued to withdraw forces from Syria but there is as yet no indication that any Syrian based Russian units have redeployed to fighting in Ukraine.

Kursk Salient

Russian forces had confirmed gains north-east of Subzha and fighting continues east and south-east of Korenevo.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting contend in both salients but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

North of the Donets

Fighting continued along the line of contact but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Bakhmut

Reporting on the battalion sized Russian force east of Siversk has been modified into a rout, with Ukrainian sources now claiming that they inflicted 400 casualties on the Russia force. The Russian force was attacking a slice of 3 Ukrainian brigades and getting shot up as a result. The Ukrainian General Staff says there were no gains by the Russians, but the two major Ukrainian war blogs show Russian gains in the area. It is all quite confusing, but geolocated imagery shows 15 damaged Russian armored vehicles and no apparent gains by the Russians - though also no loss of terrain by the Russians.

There were no confirmed changes to the line around Chasiv Yar, though Russian sources claimed some gains on the south side of Chasiv Yar.

Further south, Russian forces made small, confirmed gains in and around Toretsk, making small gains into western Toretsk, as wells pushing into northern Nelipivka (immediately south of Toretsk) . The Ukrainian General Staff also reported fighting continued in Shcherbynivka, to the west of Nelipivka.

Donetsk City

Ukrainian forces pushed back and were confirmed to have regained ground south-west of Pokrovsk, pushing into the west side of Shevchenko. Elsewhere, Russian forces made small gains both east of Pokrovsk, and south of Pokrovsk, beyond Shevchenko. Russian forces now appear to be between 1 and 1.5 miles south from Pokrovsk proper. Russian forces also continue to push west and appear to have pushed into Novovasylivka and Solone, west of Novortroitske. The units in Novovasylivka are now about 6 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, and about 3-4 miles further west than the west edge of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces continue to consolidate their control over the towns surrounding the Kurakhove reservoir, but still have not fully encircled the reservoir. At the same time, Russian are pushing westward from the west end of the reservoir. The town of Kurakhove however, remains partially in Ukrainian hands, Russian forces controlling about 2/3rds, Ukrainian forces about 1/3rd.

South of Kurakhove (between Kurakhove and Vuhledar), Russian forces continue to squeeze the Ukrainian positions that run along the Sukhi Yaly river. Russian forces have moved on Zelenivka at the western end of the valley, and to the east Romanivka, Hannivka and Trudove have fallen to the Russian advance, though pockets of Ukrainian forces remain. The town of Uspenivka looks to go next, 

Around Velyka Novosilke (VN), Russian forces have been confirmed to have pushed into Novyi Komar, just north of VN; Russian forces have pushed into the center of town and are astride Kosmonavta Komarova Street - the main north-south road through the town, also designated as the O-0509 roadway. This means that the Russians have now cut the three ground lines of communication into VN. It should be noted that with the arrival of cold weather the surrounding fields will be freezing up and off road movement of supplies is possible, assuming the temperatures stay low enough and there is no rain. 

Southern Ukraine

Bloggers report increased Russian ground activity south-west of Orikhiv, but that has not been confirmed. Reports also suggests skirmishes and artillery exchanges along the Dnepr, but there are no reports of any outcomes from this activity. There are reports of Russian resupply of spots on some of the islands in the Dnepr, but the reporting is vague and there is no other confirming data.

Air Operations

On the night of the 16th Russian forces launched 31 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 20 drones and 10 drones were “lost,” defeated by EW).

On the night of the 15th Russian forces launched 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 27 drones and that 19 drones “were lost” (defeated with EW). No final status on the final three drones.

Politics

The Ukrainian Security Service (SSU) killed LTGEN Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian army’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, with a bomb planted outside a building he was in. 

Video shows the General and his aide departing a building on Ryazansky Prospect in Moscow, and then a scooter parked next to the building exploding and killing them.

Over the course of the last 34 months the Ukrainian army has reported nearly 5,000 cases of Russian use of tear gas on the battle field. Under the Chemical Weapons Convention of 1997, the use of tear gas is banned on battlefields.

Russia has been using the tear gas chloropicrin to clear out bunkers. The Ukrainian government reports some 2,000 soldiers have suffered burns and chemical poisoning from the tear gas. There have been no claimed deaths from use of the gas. 

Chloropicrin was used by the Germans in WWI as a tear gas. It is more harsh than other tear gases and can cause choking and vomiting. 

President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff commented yesterday that there can be negotiations with Russia only when Russia can no longer continue the war.

"I emphasize once again that they help only the strong, so we must remain strong. Real negotiations on a lasting peace will begin only when the enemy lacks the resources to continue the war, so there is an incredibly big job ahead.”

The Verkhovna Rada have approved a bill that would allow dual or multiple citizenship for Ukrainians. The bill will need a second reading by the Verkhovna Rada and then be signed by the President before it can become law.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec16 Dec17

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 73.99 72.87

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 70.82 69.66

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.20 3.11

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.55 5.45

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 104.26 103.73

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.78 41.88

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 68.31 67.58

ESPO 65 77 77 77 75.49 74.27

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 68.04 68.01

Thoughts

Some odd reporting on the Russian operations north of Bakhmut in the last few days: reporting is a bit confusing - the Russian assault east of Siversk has been reported as battalion sized, consisting of 3 mechanized companies, and a mechanized platoon that spearheaded an infantry assault; earlier, the report noted 400 Russian troops involved, this has changed to 400 casualties, and while some very well informed, pro Kyiv sites have reported Russian gains, the Ukraine General Staff story now shows this as a complete rout.

Elsewhere, an image appeared on line showing perhaps 100 bodies - all laid out neatly - they had been collected - claiming to be Russian dead in the Kursk salient. (There were several bodies that might have been Korean, but impossible to say.) Of note, a fair number, perhaps 1 in 5 of the soldiers, had at least their shirts removed, and a fair slice (1 in 10 perhaps0 were stripped completely. Many of the rest just had pants, and a t-shirt on above the waist. But there were essentially no wounds visible, nor any blood, except in several individuals well to the rear of the picture where the nature of the wound could not really be made out.

There have been very few pictures like this in the past 33 months. When they have appeared it is, quite obviously, to make some extreme propaganda point. What the point is here isn’t clear beyond: we’re killing lots of Russians. But there was an odd feel about the picture: perhaps 100 bodies with very few indications of wounds. None of the troops had readily identifiable unit IDs or patches, no colored tapes, etc. In fact, most could as easily have been Ukrainian as Russian - the uniforms were simply well worn, dirty, nondescript. None of these men looked as if they had died in a firefight. Could have been by artillery, but where KIAs who died of massive wounds? Artillery is noted for causing losses of hands and feet - there were no missing limbs.

If they are killing as many Russians as they claim, this sort of picture should have been easy to come by. Perhaps this is to prove a point that they can’t really prove?

The feel to it is that they are trying too hard… but I’m not sure why.

v/r pete