December 6th, 2024 Tomorrow - 83rd Anniversary: attack on Pearl Harbor 

Politics  - Romanian Election annulled

- Lavrov Says Russia will use every means

 

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south, south-east of Pokrovsk 

Weather

Kharkiv

30 and cloudy, gusting over 20., light snow. Cloudy for the next week, rain - snow starting Tuesday morning, continuing through Thursday night. Temperatures will remain between 30 and the mid 30s all week.  Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

36 and cloudy. Partly to mostly cloudy through all next week, rain Monday night through Thursday morning. Temperatures gradually climbing through Tuesday, about 1or 2  degrees per day, with lows tomorrow near freezing, highs in the upper 30s, and by Tuesday lows will be in the mid 40s and highs will be in the upper 40s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

29 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill 19. Snow or rain showers daily through next Thursday morning. Daily lows will be near freezing, daily highs will be in the mid 30s. Winds easterly, 10kts.

Politics and Diplomacy

Romani’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the presidential election; the decision is final.

The ruling came after President Iohannis presented declassified intelligence that showed the Russia had been executing an aggressive campaign promoting Calin Georgescu for president; Georgescu won the now annulled first round of voting.

Among other things, the Russian campaign used several thousand social media accounts on Telegram and TikTok to manipulate Romanian voters.

The court noted that:

"In light of the intelligence reports, Romania's Constitutional Court has received numerous legal complaints seeking to annul the results of the first round of voting, but it is not yet clear on what grounds it made such a decision.”

The Romanian government has not announced when a new election will be held.

In an interview with Tucker Carlson Russian ForMin Lavrov commented on the recent use of the Oreshnik missile and the claimed hypersonic warheads:

“We fight for our legitimate security interests, We are sending signals and we hope that the last one, a couple of weeks ago, the signal with the new weapons system called Oreshnik … was taken seriously.”

He stated that Russia does not want to escalate and is trying to avoid “misunderstandings,” but added that: “we will send additional messages if they don’t draw necessary conclusions.”

He reiterated the Russian assertion:

“We did not start this war. We had been for years and years and years sending warnings that pushing NATO closer and closer to our borders is going to create a problem.”

As for comments from some in the West that Russia has “no red lines,”

“If they are following the logic which some Westerners have been pronouncing lately, that they don’t believe that Russia has red lines, they announced their red lines, these red lines are being moved again and again, this is a very serious mistake. We are ready for any eventuality but we strongly prefer peaceful solution through negotiations on the basis of respecting legitimate security interests of Russia.”

 

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces made gains south-east of Korenevo for the 2nd day this week, pushing into Darino, located just 2 miles inside Russia. At the same time, Russia forces made gains near Malaya Loknya and are reportedly clearing the area of the last Ukrainian elements.

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces made small gains near the town of Hlyboke, and fighting continued elsewhere across the salient’s but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

North the Donets River

Fighting is reported along essentially the entire line of contact but there were no confirmed gains anywhere by either side. However, blogger reports suggest Russian gains continue west of Svatove and some of the reporting appears to be credible, that Russian forces cotinue to grind out small gains along the Oskil River just south of Kruhlyakivka, as well as near Lozova.

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports of troops engagements also support these assessments (ie, something is going on there) and there are additional UGS reports that suggest Russian forces have made some small gains into the eastern side of Terny, along the Zherebets River.

 Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed gains by either side.

Chasiv Yar also saw continued fighting but no confirmed gains. However, UGS reporting showed engagements taking place inside Chasiv Yar, just south of the ceramics factory (in the center of town), as well as along the north edge of Stupochky (immediately south of Chasiv Yar).

Fighting continues in Toretsk and both geolocated imagery and UGS reports support the assessment act Russian forces made gains in central Toretsk and south of that town in Leonidivka.

Donetsk

Russian forces made no gains east of Pokrovsk, but south and south-east of Pokrovsk Russian forces continue to make gains, pushing further west and at the same time squeezing would-be salients closed. To the south-west of of Pokrovsk Russian forces contiuen to grind forward in the Novotroitske and Pushkine areas, and UGS reports show engagements taking place in Stari Terny, at the western end of the Kurakhove reservoir. In Kurakhove itself Russian forces appear to have made some small gains in the town itself, advancing westward several city blocks. The Russian forces in and around Stari Terny appear to have cut the H15 roadway which will limit resupply to Ukrainian forces inside Kurakhove.

To the south of Kurakhove Russian forces appear to have taken the town of Romanivka, on of the towns on the Suhki Yaly River, and Russian forces continue to press west and south from Dalnie and are closing the pincer on Ukrainian forces in that small river valley.

Fighting continues around Velyka Novosilke but the road north through Novyi Komar remains under Ukrainian control.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting and Russian force movements were reported across southern Ukraine and along the Dnepr River, but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain by either side.

Air Operations

On the night of the 5th, morning of the 6th Russian forces launched at least 53 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 32 drones and 16 were “lost,” (defeated by EW).

On the night of the 4th Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 44 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 30 drones, and that 12 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). There was no confirmation of where the 2 Iskander missiles struck.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec5 Dec6

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.53 71.06

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.73 67.22

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.12 3.08

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.69 5.57

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 98.36 101.48 100.27

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.54 41.45

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 67.99 67.20

ESPO 65 77 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.88 65.73

Thoughts

The Romanian situation is fascinating. I wonder if Romanian Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence dug this up as part of some operations or was it a “serendipitous collection” that led them to the proof?

Interestingly, Elena Lasconi, of the Save Romania Party, who finished second to Georgescu, lambasted the court’s action, calling it “illegal, immoral, and crushes the very essence of democracy.”

“We should have moved forward with the vote. We should have respected the will of the Romanian people. Whether we like it or not, from a legal and legitimate standpoint, 9 million Romanian citizens, both in the country and the diaspora, expressed their preference for a particular candidate through their votes. We cannot ignore their will!”

“I know I would have won. And I will win because the Romanian people know I will fight for them, that I will unite them for a better Romania. I will defend our democracy. I will not give up.”

Now Romanian must come up with an election process that prevents Russia from using social media inside Romania. Given some well trained people, some money and several hundred folks operating as “NOCs” (No Official Cover operatives) it would seem very easy to use social media in any country and nearly impossible to prevent.

As one of the smart guys who keeps me on the playing field noted just this morning, Russia’s intelligence arms (KGB, FSB, etc.,) has always been very competent at using the diaspora immigrants, turning some into NOCs and letting them lose inside the West. Now, with social media such as Telegram, TikTok, et al, their impact can be multiplied many times, and yet, short of netting them in a counter-intelligence operation,  how do you prove they were part of some state sponsored disinformation effort?

v/r pete