December 16th, 2024

Ground Ops  - More Russian gains south of Pokrovsk 

Air Operations  - Large scale drone strikes

Weather

Kharkiv

33 and rain, gusting over 30, heavy rain showers. Snow or rain-snow mix throughout the week. Temperatures will see lows in the 30s and highs near 40 except Wednesday night and Thursday morning when temperatures will dip into the mid 2os. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

35 and cloudy, gusts to 40.  Partly to mostly cloudy for the week, rain tonight, then rain again next weekend.  Daily lows upper 30s to lows 40s, daily highs upper 40s, except Thursday which will see lows in the 20s and highs no higher than 40. Winds westerly, 20kts for the next several days.

Kyiv

41 and cloudy, gusts to 40. Mostly cloudy for the next week, rain on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Daily Temperatures: lows int eh low 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 15-20kts for the next several days, with gusts.

Ground Operations

Note: reports now reflect that the ground has frozen in a number of areas and that there is improved mobility from late November and early December.

There are also reports that the Russians have increased the frequency of night attacks; that must be particularly unpleasant but, as has been noted, it would be even more unpleasant to the side that is losing.

Kursk Salient

Russian forces continue to press on Ukrainian positions but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported in both the salients north of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

 North of the Donets

Fighting was reported along virtually the entire length of the line of contact but there were no were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

That said, there is again reporting that Russian forces crossed the Oskil River near Dvorichna (north-east of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces then moved south and took several square miles of land on the west side of the river.

Further south, Russian forces also were active due west of Svatove and unconfirmed reports suggest ground gains south of Lozova, as Russian troops reported advancing as much as 2 miles in the direct of Borova.

Bakhmut

North-east of Bakhmut, near Siversk, Russian forces conducted an organized, mechanized battalion assault, with more than 400 troops and 30 armored vehicles, between Siversk and Vesele (abut 7 miles south of Siversk), but pressed up into the terrain east of Siversk in 3 company-sized elements. It’s not clear how much land they managed to gain and reporting is mixed, with some reports suggesting that Russian forces are now positioned to the south about 4 miles at Vyimka, and about 6 miles to the east of Siversk near Zolotarivka; other reports suggest that forces to the east closed to within 2 miles of Siversk.

Fighting continues in the center of Chasiv Yar, and despite Russian reports that they control the ceramics factory, there appears to still be a good deal of fighting taking place in the facility.  Fighting also was reported near Stupochky, but there was no change in the front line except a possible Russian gain south of Stupochky where they may be simply taking control of empty terrain in order to straighten lines.

Further south, in the Toretsk area, Russian forces pushed further west into the town, and now control the town east of Svitla street. Russian forces also made gains south of the Toretsk, and to the west in Shcherbynivka. Reports suggest that Toretsk has been so badly mangled that finding shelter and buildings for fighting positions is difficult.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continued to grind out gains south of Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian counter attack south of Pokrovsk last Thursday and Friday appears to have stopped the Russians for a day, but it appears to have run out of steam, and the Russians have regained their positions and continue to move forward. Shevchenko is now in Russian hands, even per MODUK, which is very conservative about confirming Russian gains. Russian forces have also inched north from Shevchenko and are now just outside the southern edge of Pokrovsk, that is, they are north of the defensive line south of the town; reporting varies but at most Russian forces are a bot a mile south of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces also continued to push west and are pressing on Pishchane  and are 1 mile form Solone, (just south-west of Pokrovsk), and further south are pressing on Novoolenivka.

Fighting continues in Kurakhove and on the west end and south of the Reservoir, but there was little change in this area.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to squeeze the Sukhi Yaly River area and have effectively cut off the pocket east of O-0510 roadway where it crosses that river. There were blogger reports that Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from that area. There are conflicting reports on which small towns the Russians are investing and from which the Ukrainians have withdrawn, starting with Romanivka and continuing north-west (down river) to Zelenivka (about 10 miles). What is clear is that the Russians have the initiative and the momentum and that this piece of terrain is closing up on the Ukrainian forces.

Fighting continues around Velykna Novosilke (VN), but there were no confirmed gains or losses. However, reporting notes a good deal of action in the area, and there is substantial reporting suggesting Russian forces gained some ground, with Ukrainian General Staff reporting Russian forces engaged just north of the O-0510 roadway, west of VN, This action has not been confirmed or geolocated, but it is reasonable to conclude that that road is effectively cut. Even if the Russians  don’t hold the terrain, the road is certainly within easy distance of Russian artillery. This leaves just one road feeding VN, the O-0509 roadway that runs due north out of VN, through Novyi Komar, and then works its way to the north-west and connects with the N-15 Roadway about 9-10 miles behind the front lines.

Russian forces continued to attack Novyi Komar from the east, and VN from the east and south, but Ukrainian forces are currently holding.

Southern Ukraine

Russian forces south-west of Orikhiv (10 miles north-west of Robotyne) gained some ground and pushed north-east of Nesterianka; Russian forces may have cut the T0812 roadway west of Orikhiv, and are certainly within direct fire distance of the road, with elements confirmed to be about a mile south of that roadway in several spots. The T0812 connects Orikhiv with Kamyanske on the Dnipr.  Fighting was reported elsewhere across southern Ukraine but were no confirmed gains or losses.

Air Operations

On the night of the 15th Russian forces launched 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 27 drones and 19 others “were lost” (brought down by EW).

During the night of December 14th-15th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Iskander Ballistic missile, 1 x S-300 ballistic missile and 108 x Shahed drones in Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed to shot down 56 drones and 49 other drones were “lost” (defeated by EW), and 3 drones returned to Russian airspace, which accounts for all drones. However, Mykolaiv government reported drones strikes on power grid infrastructure in Mykolaiv. The Iskander missile landed in Kharkiv, Ukrainian sources report it stuck a sports complex.

On the night of 13-14 December Russian force launched 132 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it sot down 58 drones and 72 drones “were lost” (brought down by EW). There were no specific damage reports.

While the UAF routinely reports that only 1 or 2 drones got thought, the Manager of DTEK, the largest private electric power company in Ukraine, publicly reminded everyone that DTEK power plants alone (that is, not including government owned power plants) have been struck by 93 missiles so far this year and are operating well below capacity.

Politics 

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sibiga rejected Hungary's proposed Christmas Day truce during a meeting of senior EU diplomats in Brussels.

The Italian Government has approved its 10th military aid package for Ukraine, but as with previous aid packages, the contents are classified and will not be announced.

The Ukrainian army announced that BGEN Oleksandr Tarnavskiy is the new commander of the Donetsk Task Group, replacing BGEN Lutsenko, who was fired last Thursday. 

BGEN Tarnavskiy is 54, commanded the 17th Separate Tank Brigade from 2011 - 2015, and has had command of 6 different task groups during the course of the war.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Dec13 Dec16

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 74.41 73.99

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 71.17 70.82

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.28 3.20

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.52 5.55

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 104.53 104.26

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 41.69 41.78

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 66.93 68.31

ESPO 65 77 77 77 75.91 75.49

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 67.25 68.04

Thoughts

The Ukrainian counter-attack last Thursday, south of Pokrovsk, seemed to stop the Russians for a moment, but the Russian have quickly overcome it. There is a sense that the Russians have the initiative everywhere. This is heightened by the tone of the propaganda coming out of Kyiv, which is sounding ever more Soviet-like in its over the top qualities. 

Early last week Ukrainian forces were killing Russians at a rate of 3 or 4 or 5 to 1. By the end of the week it had increased above 5 to 1 and in some cases there were reports of 10 to 1 kill rations. Today I saw one from the Pokrovsk area that spoke of kill ratios of 15 to 1.

This is consistent with previous reporting; when losses start mounting or it appears that a key town is about to fall, the reported numbers of Russians killed starts to climb; the worse the situation, the bigger the numbers.

Note, the DOD did much the same thing during Vietnam; so have many other countries.

More to the point, there is no indication that the Russians are suffering these huge losses except for the reporting from Kyiv and London. At the same time, the Russians, particularly west and south-west of Donetsk City (the Pokrovsk and Velika Novosilka battles) show the Russians making steady gains. The Sukhi Yaly river valley is closing down and the Ukrainians who have not withdrawn will be captured in the near term - one supposes before Christmas.

And, the Russians appear to have regained some sort of maneuverability on the battlefield with the frozen ground, just as they appear ready to push beyond Pokrovsk and beyond the fixed defensive poisons the Ukrainian army built in the last decade. If they can push beyond Pokrovsk, the two armies will be fighting in open fields with no prepared defensive positions, in winter…

v/r pete