December 27th, 2024  Next Summary December 30th, 2024

Overall, Russian forces in Ukraine continued to make gains on the ground. And Russian strikes assets conducted an extensive strike on the Ukrainian power grid on Christmas Day.

In most sectors of the front lines, the Russians showed minor gains, but there were some gains noted in each sector over the past two days. The most significant development was that in the area just west and southwest of Donetsk, in the last 24 hours, Russian forces appear to have forced Ukrainian forces out of Kurakhove. There may be a small pocket, perhaps 100 troops, remaining in the industrial sector of that town, to include the thermal power plant, but video of the last 24 hours shows that area being struck by a good deal of ordnance. 

Anecdotal reporting suggests that the Ukrainian forces are slowly withdrawing to the west, and that the Russians are closing the “pocket” south of Kurakhove.

At the same time, Russian forces made gains south of Pokrovsk, which not only moves the Russians closer to the goal of encircling Pokrovsk, it also is making any Ukrainian withdrawal from that pocket south of Kurakhove that much more difficult.

And around Velyka Novosilke (VN) Russian forces continue to make small gains, most significant of which is that the Russians have clearly reached the road running westward from VN, the last real road into and out of the town. At the same time there is an unconfirmed report that Ukrainian forces in Novyi Komar reached the O-0509 roadway that runs due north out of VN through Novyi Komar. If that is so, then the situation is not as grave as it would otherwise appear. But, that reports is still unconfirmed. Further, the momentum is on the Russian side and it is probable that all roads will be closed in the near term. In light of the warm and wet weather, this will substantially reduce logistical support into VN and make defense that much more difficult.

Overall, reports suggest additional Russian forces moving into the perimeter of the Kursk salient, into the the terrain west of Svatove - as they push for the Oskil River, and south of Pokrovsk, and the speculation is fairly safe in predicting that the Russian forces will continue their offensive through the winter. 

Russian forces also continued strikes against the Ukrainian power grid, with a daily strikes over rate last three days, the strike on Christmas Day being quite large.

The Russian strike on Christmas Day (2 x KN-23 ballistic missiles, 10 x S-300 missiles; 12 x Kalibr cruise missiles, 50 x Kh-101/55 cruise missiles, 4 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 106 x Shahed drones) was directed at the power grid; at least 7 cruise missiles, 12 ballistic missiles, and 4 drones penetrated air defenses and reached their targets. Blackouts were initially reported in Vinnytsia, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts; in particular it was noted that a hospital in Dnipropetrovsk had no power and more than 100 patients were evacuated to other hospitals in the area.

Ukraine’s private power system operator (DTEK) reported serious damage to its Thermal Power Plants.

Thoughts

An article in European Pravda reports that European open-ended support for Ukraine is falling.

Citing results of a poll this month by YouGov, in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK, found public support for Ukraine “until victory” has declined in the last 12 months.

Willingness to support Ukraine until it defeats Russia compared to the same question in January:

Sweden  50% (57%)

Denmark  40% (51%)

UK  36% (50%)

In support of a negotiated peace compared to last January:

Italy 55% (45%)

Spain 46% (38%)

France  43% (35%)

Germany  45% 38(%)

Meanwhile, in Poland, 55% of Poles support an end to the war even if it means Ukraine loses parts of its territory; this number was 39% in September of this year. At the same time, Polish support for Ukraine fighting without any concessions now stands at 31%, down from 46% in September.

While it’s risky assigning too broad a meaning to any poll, the polling data would suggest a sense among Europeans that the war isn’t going the way the Ukrainians would like and it’s time to end it. When you are losing is, of course, the worst possible time to negotiate. 

At the same time, it’s hard to see how the Ukrainians can rapidly turn around the fight on the ground; in the final analysis, the Ukrainian army does not and will not have enough soldiers to defeat the Russians in the war of attrition that they are currently fighting.

But to change the fight, to move to a more highly trained force with the right mix of weapons to stop the Russian army - which will continue fighting a war of attrition, requires manpower, time, and space - ceding terrain while creating a new, professional army - and will also require a good deal of money and training support, much more than Ukraine has on its own.

That leaves Ukraine in the unpleasant situation of having to listen to others about its own defense. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

v/r pete