December 23rd, 2024

Abbreviated summaries next two weeks - highlights and thoughts only 

Overall, the war churns on, with northern Ukraine facing 3 days of above freezing temperatures followed by a week below zero; and southern Ukraine facing 4 days above freezing, followed by more freezing weather. This will mean more mud and more potential mobility problems for both sides.

Small Russian gains were noted on both the east and west sides of the Kursk salient, and more small gains claimed but not confirmed of Russian troops operating just east of the Oskil River.

In central Chasiv Yar Russian forces appear to have gained control of more of the ceramics factory but that fight continues.

While fighting continues along much of the rest of the front, to include apparently 4 small-boat reconnaissance probes across the Dnepr into the Kherson city area, there are three major issues to look at. 

The two lesser ones are: first, small but steady Russian gains south of Pokrovsk, moving closer to the town itself, while also pushing slowly west and south west, and second, Russian gains south and west of Velyka Novosilke (VN) which leaves that town hemmed in by Russian forces, with Russian forces on the very edge of the town in the east, occupying the town of Novyi Komar to the north, Russian forces less than 2 miles south of the southern edge of town, and about 1.5 miles west of the west edge of town. In the 90 degree arc from due west to due north VN can access the surrounding farmland, but there is no road through this area. 

Given the weather noted above, the surrounding fields will not be frozen, and off-road movement will be difficult. Any attempt to resupply or reinforce VN will be hampered, any attempt to withdraw from VN will be more dangerous. 

Finally, the major item today is reporting that shows multiple Russian flags, and Russian army unit flags flying over Kurakove, and the reporting suggests that Ukrainian elements have been pushed back into the northwest - industrial - corner of the town.

Further to the south, the small valley of the Sukhi Yaly River appears to have closed up by Russian forces, with the small towns along that river, up to and including Zelenivka, now either firmly in Russian hands or are in the process of being cleared.

Russian forces will then straighten the lines and the pocket that currently extends from Kurakove to Zelenivka to Petropavlivka will be closed up. 

It is difficult to know when that will happen but it could happen within the next few weeks, a pocket of about 50 square miles in size.

Once that pocket is closed up - and there is no reason to believe it won’t happen, Russian forces will turn to Velyka Novosilke and take that town. Circling Pokrovsk would soon follow and then they would invest Kostiantynivka.

Thoughts

On the ground, in simplest terms, Kurakove has fallen, and the Russians are straightening their lines. It is reasonable to assume that Velyka Novosilke will fall within several weeks; followed by more line straightening. Presumably the Russians will continue to push west from their position just south of Pokrovsk and attempt to hook behind Pokrovsk and surround it. 

What they can actually achieve remains to be seen.

However, it is worth noting that the Ukrainian Army has already changed the tone of the propaganda around Velyka Novosilke, further emphasizing how many Russians they have killed, a shift that has been seen prior to withdrawing from a town. Whether they will withdraw in the near term remains to be seen, but the real sense is that the underlying problem is manpower and there is no immediate answer to the problem.

It that regard, it’s worth noting that the first unit of the Polish Legion has arrived in Ukraine, an element (probably a couple of companies of infantry), trained in Poland over the last 5 weeks.

As you may recall, Poland worked with the Ukrainian embassy to attempt to recruit Ukrainian men - there are currently 800,000+ Ukrainian men of conscription age in Europe - and build up multiple brigades of troops (Ukrainian men) with basic skills to go to Ukraine where they would receive advanced skills and then move to the front lines.

After a recruiting campaign on all the major social media platforms across Europe, begun in early summer, only 500 men expressed interest by early November. 

A second item worth noting is that in a recent poll 47% of Ukrainians would support leaving parts of Ukraine occupied by the Russian if they were to receive NATO membership; the idea of ceding terrain for some sort of peace is gaining favor.

Which lead to a final thought, raised among some bloggers focused on China, and the reflection of the question asked seven decades ago: Who lost China? Assuming Zelenskyy eventually agrees to some sort of ceasefire and DMZ arrangement, a la Korea, there is going to be a recoil within a very short period of time in the light of a bifurcated Ukraine - which will cloud the entire effort - as to “Who lost Ukraine?”

One presumes Trump will be blamed even though he is still a month from being sworn in, and the current situation in Ukraine is in large part the result of policy decisions made in the White House over the last 3 years.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to suffer from grand strategic errors made in the 1990s, and again in 2013 and 2014, mistakes made both in Kyiv and in Washington and correcting those errors is going to be costly.

v/r pete