December 24th, 2024  Christmas Eve

To All:  Merry Christmas Next report on the 27th

Weather: There will be another few days of above freezing weather across most of Ukraine, and then below freezing weather for 4 or 5 days. There will also be gray skies and some rain showers. This will keep the ground from freezing, making cross country movement difficult until at least Saturday, but mid 30s weather returns next Wednesday, so - miserable conditions.

Overall, the ground war continues and the Russians continue to grind out small gains in most sectors. 

Of note, in the Kursk salient Russian forces made small gains, but in particular, made some gains south of Sudzha, the center of the Ukrainian position. Russian forces operating along the Oskil River north of Kupyansk slightly expanded their holdings on the west side of the River, and a bit further south Russian forces made gains west of Svatove as they work to expand their holdings along and near the Oskil River.

In the general Bakhmut area there was commentary on the Russian bombing of both Terny and Toretsk, and as can be seen in this picture of Toretsk (Terny is similar, as are scores of other towns) the towns are being reduced to rubble.

A drone view shows damage caused by Russian military strikes, in the town of Toretsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Thursday [Handout: Сonsolidated Brigade 'Khyzhak' of the Ukrainian Patrol Police Department/Reuters]

Reports from Ukraine’s Southern Command (USC) note the activity of a Russian brigade along the east bank of the Dnepr, and increased number of small raids (8-10 men), and suggest to USC that the Russians are going to try to force their way across the river and seize a small bridgehead. 

There are not a lot of other Russian forces in the area, and there is much else the Russians are doing - this seems specious at best.

In the south, there were more incremental Russian gains around Velyka Novosilke, and anecdotal reports suggest supplies are no longer reaching the forces inside the town, but for the time-being the Ukrainians are holding.

Further north, Ukrainian forces appear to have withdrawn from the small towns of the Sukhi Yaly valley, though they remain in the north-west corner (the industrial section) of Kurakove, and in the terrain immediately west and south of Kurakove. Ukrainian forces need to hold that terrain if they intend to hold Kurakove itself, or they need to hold it until the forces in Kurakove withdraw and then they can back out and collapse the pocket as they move west.

South of Pokrovsk itself the Russians made small gains pushing west, and have also pushed closer to the southern edge of Pokrovsk itself. 

Drone strikes and missile strikes continued by both sides, civilians paying the price. 

Of note, Russian tacair strikes increased in several areas, and the Russians appear to be pounding Terny and Toretsk and Velyka Novosilke with FAB 500  (1100 lb) bombs, which are obviously far more destructive than individual artillery shells. 

Elsewhere, Sweden rejected China’s version of the now long-running story of the severed undersea cables, saying that the Chinese did not cooperate in the investigation of the cutting of the 2 Baltic Sea cables, possibly by the Chinese merchant ship Yi Peng 3 dragging (deliberately?) across two cables.

A Russian ship en route Tartus from St Petersburg (MV Ursa Major) had an engine room fire yesterday north of Algeria and has sunk. 13 crew were rescued, 2 are missing.

Thoughts

Near Velyka Novosilke (VN) the Ukraine forces stopped 4 armored vehicles making an assault over open terrain, labeling it as an “Armored Convoy” that was “destroyed” by Ukrainian forces. Technically that is correct. But the report reads more like a mixture of false bravado and propaganda for the Homefront; other reporting suggests they are already short of ammo in VN and there is no easy solution to that problem: the three main roads into VN remain under Russian control and the fields are mud.

The situation around VN, and the situation just to the north around Kurakove, and has steady inching west of forces just south of Pokrovsk, has a feel of the inevitable about it. Nothing is inevitable in war, but the Ukrainian army seems drained, low on manpower, low on air defense, still low on artillery in some if not all fights, and especially low on ideas. 

They keep coming up with new ideas for their drones, but the Russian army doesn’t seem to care and just keeps grinding forward. Velyka Novosilke could fall before the end of the year, and the pocket south of Kurakhove could also collapse before the end of the year. Toretsk will hold out longer, but how much longer isn’t clear - the manpower numbers are still a mystery. 

As for the Russian brigade active near the lower Dnepr, and the squad size (8-10 men) probes and raids along the West Bank, these are creating enough noise that Ukrainian forces have to maintain a higher troops strength on the West Bank than would otherwise be necessary, thereby depriving the rest of the front line the use of those forces. But it is doubtful that the Russians will try to create a serious lodgment with just one brigade.

All in all, a grim Christmas for an army in need of a miracle.

v/r pete