Winning?

September 21st, 2025

In the papers this past week both President Trump and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Caine said that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. This is consistent with what other political figures in the West have said. For politicians and people who occupy high visibility positions, that sort of thing is to be expected. After all, the President can’t be placed in position of publicly stating “Our side is losing.”

And, there are a number of prominent blogs and on-line journals that have also made the statement that “Russia is losing" (or, if they are feeling a bit timid, “Russia is not winning”). But then the question that needs to be asked is: Are they?

There’s an argument that has come into vogue over the past year that, after 42 months of war, Russia has only managed to capture a slice of Ukraine, and has yet to take full control, (100%) of any one of the four oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson) that it claims as Russian territory. This is unquestionably true. Further, in the first half of 2022 Russia controlled substantially more of Ukraine than it does now. 

Further still, Russian casualties have been tremendous, with at least 130,000 killed in an action and probably something approaching 220,000 KIAs. 

And, Russia’s economy is hurting and, we are told, they will collapse in 2026.

Ergo, Russia is losing.

Well, maybe.

I can't really hold it against any politician who, when in a position in which some statement needs to be made, gives an “Our side is Great!” answer; he has to. But, what do we know? First, let is be said that I “know” very little. I have a great deal of inferential material, drawn from endless sniffing around on the internet, from which I can draw some conclusions, as I sit staring out into the swamp. But as to what is, in fact, happening on the ground in Ukraine I know to a certainty not much at all.

Nor would that necessarily provide clarity on who is winning. Stating who is winning a war is probably something to be avoided while a war is being fought. The US won every single battalion or larger engagement in Vietnam… The US won virtually every engagement in Afghanistan… The US has won every single engagement in Somalia - to include the battle for Mogadishu in 1993 (aka “BlackHawk Down”). Iraq we sort of won - after 20 years, but the country is a bit of a mess. We won the engagements in Libya and left the country a failed state. In Syria we again won the battles we fought. 

Which really brings us back to Clausewitz’s simple, powerful statement: "War is a battle of will.” If you do not break the enemy’s will, you do not win; unless you simply kill enough of them; as a very smart, very tough Marine I know said: if you kill enough of them, you don’t need to break their will.

So, here is some data that might bring a little clarity.

It has been noted that between 650,000 and 950,000 Russian males have left Russia (out of population of 147 million.

Estimates vary but most place about 1.2 million military service eligible Ukrainian males having fled the country and are now in Europe. By polls, few plan on  ever returning to Ukraine. That number may be a bit lower or higher, but this appears to be a representative number among the various estimates; this among a country of (Ukrainian government figure) 37 million.

When the Ukrainian government decided last month to let 18 - 25 year old Ukrainian males leave the country, more than 10,000 crossed into Poland in a week.

Since the start of the war some 35,000 - 50,000 Russian troops have deserted. During the same period well more than twice that number of Ukrainian troops have deserted. As of December 2024 some 100,000 Ukrainians had deserted. At that point the number was increasing by some 6,000 per month. Unconfirmed reports suggest that as of August (last month) that number had climbed to above 15,000 per month.

And as for casualties, non-Ukrainian government estimates place Ukrainian KIAs in the range of 100,000 - 165,000 (some place the number far higher). For those who doubt that number, some inferential data provides some clarity. As of May 2025, at least 100,000 Ukrainians (military and civilian) have suffered amputations as a result of the war (since February 2022). As of the start of August some 14,000 civilians had been killed and 40,000 wounded. Several studies have shown that roughly 50% of injuries are to the arms and legs. The number of these injuries that require amputation varies by war, but I couldn’t find any reference with more than 14% of injuries resulting in amputation.

So, assuming 20,000 civilians with wounds to the arms or legs, and taking a very high number - 50% (as opposed to 14%) of those injuries requiring amputation, you end up with 10,000 civilian amputations. Or 90,000 amputations in the army. Given that in virtually every war KIAs exceeds amputations, (usually by a factor of 3x or 4x or 5x (or more)), it would seem that there are 200,000 or more KIAs in the Ukrainian army.

Where does that leave us in trying to answer: Who is wining?

Well, no where. The winning of a war is a function of will, the will of the leadership, and the will of the people. Polls in both Ukraine and Russia show strong support, but there is certainly a good deal of room for doubt on both sides that everyone is giving honest answers…

Right now, the war grinds on, and Russia has, since late 2022, been committed to fighting a war of attrition, in which the prime objective is NOT to capture land. Capturing land is desired, but secondary; the prime objective for the Russian army is to cause Ukrainian casualties. They have routinely delayed overrunning Ukrainian positions and the Ukrainians reinforce, and the drone and artillery strikes continue, until finally the Ukrainian withdraw. These are not hand to hand fights, the Russians do not die in the trenches next to the Ukrainians. The simple fact that the Russians have returned the bodies of a bit more than 13,000 Ukrainian KIAs since January and the Ukrainians have returned 102 Russian KIAs, demands an explanation. It would seem that the Russians are letting fights drag out so that they can simply kill more Ukrainians. 

So far, the Ukrainian will is holding. And so is the Russian will. But I would suggest that talk of the Russian economy collapsing is a fool’s hope. The analysts making those projections should look at the US Federal Reserve’s record of forecasts on the US economy. The accuracy rate is dismal even for 2 quarters into the future, never mind 4 or 5. But somehow we can accurately predict the Russian economy’s trajectory to the point of predicting when it will collapse? Ask yourself one simple question: what if they get that wrong?

The sad truth is that Russia intends to fight on. The Russian people, as much as can be determined, support Putin. Putin and most of the leadership in Russian support the war. Realistically, we have no idea if the Russian economy will collapse or not. It either will or it won’t. The same can be said of Germany, France and the UK, among others. In the meantime, the war grinds on and Ukrainians, with 1/4th (at best) the population of Russia is suffering about the same number of casualties every day as the Russians.

So, who is winning? Whoever has the strongest will. Or kills the most people. Who is that? I have no idea.