September 12th, 2025 NEXT SUMMARY SEPTEMBER 18th

Politics - UNSC Meeting on Drones over Poland

- France: 3 more Rafale to Poland

- Sweden promises more aid

Combat Ops - Small Russian gains

- Tanker burns in Primorsk (St Petersburg)

Weather

Kharkiv

76 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

78 and sunny, gusting to 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in mid to upper 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

74 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 30. Partly to mostly cloudy through next week, daily lows around 50, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

The UN Security Council is meeting today (1500 EDT) to discuss the Russian drones over Poland incident.

Polish officials now report they found 17 drones (of 19), 15 of them were Gerbera decoy drones (a Shahed drone made to function as a decoy (and hence cheaper))

Gerberas normally have a range of about 300 miles, and fly at a bit over 100kts. However, these drones had been equipped with a second fuel tank, pushing their ranges to more than 500 miles.

Wording isn't crystal clear, but it appears that the 17 drones they found crashed after running out of fuel - if so, it appears they may have only shot down 2 drones. PM Tusk, in addressing Parliament, noted that they shot down “3 or 4” that “posed a threat.” Also, the polish authorities note they are still looking for drones, suggesting there may have been more than 19.

The Ukrainian State Border Guard reported that the number of Russian troops in Belarus for Exercise ZAPAD 2025 (runs from September 12th - 16th) is lower than expected.

"I would like to note that we are not observing a large number of russian forces on the territory at the moment. Of course, the terrorist country sent its units, personnel and equipment to Belarus for these exercises, but their number is significantly smaller than even when Russia kept about 10,000-12,000 personnel on the territory of Belarus in 2023.”

France has announced that it will deploy 3 x Rafale fighters to Poland to assist in “protecting Poland’s airspace.”

NATO command announced that it will provide “better” Early Warning to Lithuania conquering air activity crossing Lithuania.

Sweden pledged 9.2 billion Krona ($988 million) in aid to Ukraine (its 20th aid package), to include 18 x Archer guns with ammo (a truck-mounted 155MM howitzer), drones, coastal radars and various sensors, as well as 70 billion Krona ($7.5 billion) over the next 2 years.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city but there were no confirmed changes in the front line. Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces gained some ground just south of Yablunivka, but this has not been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv Russian sources claimed gains west of Synelnkove, just west of Vovchansk, but this has not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There is heavy fighting in the Kupyansk area, with Ukrainian forces reporting more probes into the city from the north and north-west, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines. 

Further south, Ukrainian sources are reporting that Russian forces have taken control of Serednie on the West Bank of the Nitrius River. This will give the Russians an advantage in cutting off the logistics into Shandryholove (just south of Serednie, but on the east bank of the river).

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines north of Bakhmut, but Russian reporting suggests renewed fighting north-east of Siversk in the Serebrianka area (on the south bank of the Donets River).

Imagery did confirm Russian gains in the open terrain between Toretsk and Kostiantinivka and Chasiv Yar, Russian forces pushing north-west and west, and Russian Air Force tacair conducted precision glide-bomb strikes on Kostiantinivka. Russian gains north of Bila Hora are generating another pocket (between Bila Hora, Stupochky and the Donets Canal) and Russian forces can be expected to try to close that up with drones and artillery in the near term.

Fighting continues on most of the edges of the August salient, and seems to have settled into another see-saw battle for terrain. Russian forces reported that they had retaken some of the terrain east of Bilytske - where Ukraine forces gained ground over the previous few days. This remains unconfirmed but is credible. Elsewhere there were no reports of any changes in the salient. Ukrainian sources report increased Russian drone activity over the ground lines of communication that run into the Pokrovsk area and Ukrainian controlled towns north of Pokrovsk.

Russian probes continue into Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian reports that they - the Russian recon elements - are 2-3 miles north of the front lines. Of note, Russian soldiers are distributing leaflets to the citizens remaining in Pokrovsk, telling them that the Russian army is just outside the city.

West and south-west of Pokrovsk, unconfirmed reports suggest small Russian gains around Molodetske, and fighting continues further south near Filiia. But, in the middle of this section of the line, Ukrainian forces pushed back north of Horikhove (west of Kotliarivka) and pushed Russian forces back about a half mile from the oblast border. The border in this area is simply a tree-line, and the area the Ukrainians took is a large field - about a half mile by a mile, demarcated by tree-lines.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River imagery confirms Russian forces now control Sosnivka, and Ukrainian reports suggest Russian gains along much of the line from the Vovcha River at Zelenyi Hai to Oleksandrohrad to Novoselivka to Sosnivka to Ternove; it seems that they are going to push to the banks of the Vovcha river as it snakes across southern Ukraine (they now control nearly all of that terrain).

If they are consistent with previous operations, they will push recon elements across the river as they consolidate behind it, closing up any small, would be, salients on the east side of the river. Then they will press westward in greater force.

Russian probes were reported south and south-east of Orikhiv, and reports suggest the Russians are grinding north into Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka (just south and south-east of Orikhiv respectively) but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Further west, fighting continues north of Plavni, as Russian forces attack north into Stephnohirsk and southern Prymorske, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 10th-September 11th, Russian forces launched 40 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 33 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

No civilian casualties reported.

During the night of September 10th-September 11th, Russian forces launched 66 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 62 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with the strike focused on infrastructure.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian town.

No civilian casualties reported.

An oil tanker in Primorsk (St. Petersburg’s oil terminals) briefly caught fire after a drone attack, but the fire has reportedly been put out with little damage.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep11 Sep12

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 66.66 67.51

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.81 63.28

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.01 2.92

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.13 5.20

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 84.81 83.50

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.37 41.23

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 63.33 60.98

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 69.79 68.67

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 64.42 62.77

Thoughts

While the latest data (2 or 3 drones shot down, of 19 or more) is worse than it looked, there is some initial response: NASAMS and Patriots and Rafales and other assets are being moved, and there is an order to move 40,000 troops closer to the border. 

But to what end? Some have called for invoking Article 5. And then do what? The options seem mainly to be incremental (something like):

Increase the density of air defense assets in Poland

Establish a high density Integrated Air Defense System IADS) over Poland (and the Baltic States)

Expand the IADS to cover Ukraine 

Conduct strikes into Russia to destroy the Russian ability to orchestrate drone launches 

Conduct strikes to destroy drone production facilities in Russia.

This is by no means comprehensive, but are perhaps representative of what might be considered.

But these are all expensive propositions, even without anything actually happening. It is by now obvious that “responding” to drones doesn’t necessarily result in a high percentage of drones being successfully engaged. Surface to air missile units and anti-aircraft artillery systems need to be kept on high alert and fighters and support aircraft need to be kept on high alert. Extending an IADS over the Baltic states makes it more expensive, extending an IADS over Ukraine (almost 90% of the size of Texas) would be very expensive.

And, as for conducting a conventional strike on Russia, that would certainly “feel good.” Maybe NATO strikes the Russian drone factory. But what if Russia retaliated and struck the airfield or garrison of whatever unit conducted the strike? Are we ready to escalate?

All of these would “feel good,” like NATO was “doing something.”

But each is another escalation. Is there a plan to deescalate or in some way control the escalation? Do any of these actions necessarily move NATO and Ukraine closer to a successful end to the war?

v/r pete