September 9th, 2025

Politics   - ZNPP coolant concerns

- Patriot stocks running low

- ZAPAD 2025 and Iron Defender 25

Combat Ops - Marginal gains

- Russia’s Air Campaign continues  

 

Weather

Kharkiv

80 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the upper 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

77 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy tomorrow, then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows around 60, daily highs in near 80. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

76 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend, daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

On Sunday President Trump said he is ready to move to a second phase of sanctions on Russia, but provided no details.

Yesterday, IAEA Director Grossi noted that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) cooling reserve (the Dnepr River) is 13.4 meters (44 feet) deep, and that the cooling system needs a minimum of 12 meters (39 feet) to function properly.

The Financial Times is reporting that the Ukrainian Patriot missile inventory is running low. The missiles, which depending on the variant can cost from $4 million per missile (PAC 2 and PAC 3 (PAC: Patriot Advanced Capability), to $7 million each (PAC 3 MSE) (MSE: Missile Segment Enhanced). 

Per Ukrainian sources, the rate of expenditure of Patriot missiles has increased over the summer as Russian missile and drone strikes have grown both in size and complexity.

Estimates as of July suggested that the Ukrainian forces had already launched more than 1,000 Patriot missile since receiving their first Patriot battery.

Lockheed is currently producing a bit more than 500 missiles per year and is trying to increase the production rate.

While Patriot has a high hit probability against some targets, ballistic missile engagements can be more difficult. In an engagement in February Patriot batteries around Kyiv engaged 6 inbound Iskander ballistic missiles, using 10 interceptors to defeat the 6 missiles.

The various shelters in the Netherlands - currently home for 97,000 Ukrainians - are essentially full, and Ukrainian refugees continue to arrive in the Netherlands at a rate of 300 per week. The Ministry of Asylum and Migration is working on a solution. Per a Ministry spokesman:

"Legally, municipalities do not have the right to refuse Ukrainians who request shelter, but this sometimes happens out of necessity. The Ministry of Asylum and Migration agrees with the VNG's concerns and states that there are "terrible situations where vulnerable displaced persons do not receive the necessary shelter… the issue of who is placed on which bed" is under discussion, and reportedly the Ministry is hoping some Ukrainians will be able to and will choose to pay for their pwn housing.

Poland’s PM Tusk has closed the Poland - Belarus due to the ongoing ZAPAD 2025 exercise.

"On Friday, Russian-Belarusian maneuvers, very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective, begin in Belarus, very close to the Polish border. Therefore, for national security reasons, we will close the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, in connection with the Zapad maneuvers on Thursday at midnight.”

ZAPAD 2025 will run from September 12th - September 16th, and is, officially, testing combined Russia - Belarus defense readiness. The exercise will include missile launches, to include a launch of an Oreshnik IRBM.

13,000 Belarus military personnel will participate. Russian participation has not been announced. Reportedly, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, the Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger and Tajikistan will have elements that will participate, and Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the UAE and Uzbekistan will send observers.

Poland began its own exercise - Iron Defender-25 - on September 2nd, in which 30,000 Polish and NATO troops will participate, training in a full spectrum of operations, to include air, land and naval warfare as well as cyber.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north and north-west of Sumy city, and Ukrainian sources report that the small border village of Bezsalivka, north-west of Sumy city, is once again in Ukrainian hands. At the same time, Ukrainian reporting suggests that Ukrainian forces no longer control any terrain in the vicinity of Tetkino, just across the border in Russia.

Further east - due north of Sumy City, fighting continues but there were no reported changes in the line of contact.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, particularly around Vovchnsk, but there were no confirmed changes in the line of contact.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact and heavy fighting is reported in the Kupyansk area. Reporting continues to be confusing at best, regularly contradictory, and often time late and overcome by events as forces move, take a position and then are pushed off that position, especially inside Kupyansk itself. Presently, it appears that Russian forces firmly control up to the northern edge of Kupyansk, Myrne (or Myrhove or Moskotka) and perhaps half of Sobolivka. Russian probes are pushing into Kupyansk, some as far as a half mile, but that half mile or so patch of terrain across the north and west side of the city appears to have become a true “no man’s land."

Imagery confirmed Ukrainian forces had gains near Zarichne (west of Torske, on the West Bank of the Zherebets River). At the same time, Russian forces have made gains over the weekend pushing south-west from Kolodazi and just west of that town, and reporting suggests Russian forces have overrun the small town of Derylove on the east bank of the Nitrius River and are pressing on Novoselivka (just west of Derylove) and Shandryholove (just to the north-west).

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continued east and north-east of Siversk, with probes reaching to the north-east edge of the town, but there were no confirmed gains.

North of Chasiv Yar imagery confirmed Russian gains around Hyhorivka, with Russian forces pressing through that town, and are now operating west and north-west of the town and pressing on Markove.

Russian reporting claims Russia forces now control Katerynivka (between Toretsk and the Kleban Byk Reservoir), but this has not been confirmed. Fighting continued along most of the line of contact in this area. Recon probes continue into Kostiantinivka.

North-east of Pokrovsk, at the base of the August Salient, Ukrainian forces continue to attack, trying to pinch off the salient; there are unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian gains in the area east of Bilytske and this has evolved into a close, see-saw fight with each taking small pieces of terrain and losing small pieces of terrain each day. At this point, the fight looks as if it will be decided by who can jam the most folks and artillery and drone fire into the area in the shortest period of time.

Fighting continues in southwest Pokrovsk with Russian sources claiming that Russian forces had marginal gains in that section of the city as well as gains in nearby towns; none of these claims have been confirmed.

What has been confirmed via Ukrainian forces reporting is that Russian probes continue into the city, and that Russian attacks were noted in more than a dozen towns in the general Pokrovsk area. Ukrainian headquarters personnel continue to suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an offensive in the Pokrovsk area and that additional Russian forces are flowing into the area for this offensive. 

Russian reporting claims some gains in Pokrovsk, but these are not confirmed. However, there is fighting going on in southwest Pokrovsk and Russian drones (probably fiber optic FPV drones) are reported operating as far as 20 kilometers (12 miles) behind the front line, striking Ukrainian GLOCs.

West of Pokrovsk fighting continues in Udachne, and just west of Udachne Russian forces appear to have once again pushed north of the Solone River and are now operating just south-west of Molodetske, about a mile inside Dnipropetrovsk, and about a mile south of Novopinhorodne  

South-west of Pokrovsk, along the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, north of the Vovcha River, Russian forces continue probes and strikes on Dachne and Filiia, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha there were unconfirmed reports of Russian gains westward of the Novoselivka - Vorone - Zaporizke line, with reports suggesting Russian forces have pushed into Sosnivka (small town of about 200 people, about 4 miles west of the Dniproetrovsk oblast border).

Fighting was reported in southern Prymorsk, and there were claims of Russian gains, but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

Russian forces also raided across the Dnepr River, north of Kherson, near the Antonovski bridge, but there were few details and Russian forces are probably conducting recon and harassment raids.

Air Operations

During the night of September 8th-September 9th, Russian forces launched 84  x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 60 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 2 Ukrainian towns.

At least 24 civilians have been killed and 19 were wounded as a result of air strikes.

During the night of September 7th-September 8th, Russian forces launched 172 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 112 Shahed drones. The energy grid was the primary target.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Kyiv oblasts.

During the night of September 6th-September 7th, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 9 Iskander cruise missiles, x 810 Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 4 cruise missiles and 747 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. At least one missile struck the Cabinet Ministers' Building in Kyiv.

At least 2 civilians were killed and 44 wounded.

This is the largest overall strike package since the war began. 

During the night of September 5th-September 6th, Russian forces launched  91 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 68 Shahed drones.

Damage from drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kherson and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of September 4th-September 5th, Russian forces launched 1 x Kh-59 cruise missile, 6 x S-300 ballistic missiles, and 157 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 121 Shahed drones; the power grid was the key target in the strikes.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 5 Ukrainian towns.

At least 3 civilians were killed and 5 wounded.

Russia has launched 1,300 strike drones, 900 guided bombs, and 50 various missiles since September 1st.

Russia is reportedly, per a Russian industry figure (Alexey Chadayev), producing 50,000 fiber optic controlled drones per month.

Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate spokesman reported last Friday that Russia is currently producing 2,700 Shahed (strike) drones per month, and the goal is 190 per day (5,700 per month) by the end of the year. 

Note the disparity in production rates with fiber optic controlled drones, which are substantially easier and cheaper to produce.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   May8 Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep5 Sep9

Brent      94.71       61.93 66.80 70.44 66.90 65.34 67.03

WTI     92.10    59.00 64.89 68.65 64.29 61.76 63.26

NG       3.97          3.64 3.69 3.35 3.06 3.06 3.12

Wheat     8.52           5.34 5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.22

Ruble     85          82.45 79.27 78.47 79.74 81.55 84.03

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.21 41.23

Urals 91.66 54.13 60.84 64.07 63.17 61.66 60.12

ESPO 94.52 48.90 63.97 71.58 68.63 69.19 68.32

Sokol 99.31 57.39 61.51 64.38 62.57 63.08 62.97

Thoughts

Just north-west of Lyman, Russian forces have pushed south-west and west, and have reached the east bank of the Nitrius River. In itself, this is a minor point, but it leaves the Russians with another approach axis to the Oskil River; they are slicing up the Ukrainian position east of the Oskil River. Russian forces also appear to have taken control of the Serebrianske forest, after 3 years of truly vicious fighting in those woods by both sides.

What is both interesting and disturbing about these two developments is that the Russian forces appear to be getting better tactically. The same also appears to be true south of the Vovcha river. Whether it is a function of the better use of, and integration of, fiber optic FPV drones with artillery and infantry or something else, the Russian TTP (tactics, techniques and procedures) appear to be working better.

Also, while the Ukrainian high command keeps suggesting that Russian forces are regrouping, preparing for a fall offensive (near Pokrovsk), and that is by no means clear, what is clear is that the Russians are regularly rotating units on and off the front line, and there is a sense of routine about it - it does not appear that they are rotating units after very high casualties, they are rotating on some sort of schedule, suggesting that they have enough personnel to pull units off the line and give them short rest and refit periods.

v/r pete