September 18th, 2025

Politics - Zapad 2025 ends

- Russia, Ukraine return bodies of the dead

Combat Ops - Few changes on the front lines

- Small steady Russian gains across southern Ukraine

Weather

Kharkiv

63 and sunny. Partly cloudy through the weekend, then several days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the low 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

59 and rain. Rain ends by early morning tomorrow, partly cloudy through Saturday, then 4 days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in mid to upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

68 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy through Saturday, then sunny for several days. Daily lows in the high 40s to low 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Zapad 2025 ended on the 16th (12th - 16th of September), the first Zapad (Russian for “West”) since 2021.

Officially, 13,000 troops participated, though that number is thought to be below the actual count.

The exercise, identified as a defensive exercise, included air sorties over Belarus as well as over the Barents Sea, armored maneuvers near the Barysaw training ground (north-east of Minsk about 30 miles), efforts to integrate unmanned systems and “advanced electronic warfare capabilities,” and nuclear response drills (not further discussed). The focus, reportedly, was on high tech capabilities and reportedly included Artificial Intelligence supported command and control.

Oreshnik IRBMs were deployed to Belarus as well as Iskander ballistics missiles, and Zircon hypersonic missiles were fired, with one Zircon launched from the Russian navy frigate Admiral Golovko, from the Barents Sea. There was also the usual assortment of surface to air missile firings and air to surface missile firings (to include Kinzhal missiles). 

There was European commentary on Russian Iskander ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, but, in fact, tactical ballistic missiles have been in Kaliningrad for decades, as have nuclear weapons. As you may recall, in the early spring of 2022 a pair of SU-24s launched out of Kaliningrad and flew over the Baltic (and several Swedish islands) and were intercepted by Swedish AF Gripens, who photographed the RuAF aircraft. When the pictures were looked at on the ground it was noted that Russian aircraft were carrying nuclear weapons.

Of note, US observers were in Belarus for the exercise.

1,000 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers (KIA) were returned to Ukraine this morning, bringing to a bit more than 13,000 the number of Ukrainian dead returned since January. The bodies of 34 Russian soldiers were turned over to the Russians, bringing the total of returned Russian bodies to 112 since the start of the year.

The only member of the Russian Security Council that opposed the February 2022 decision to invade Ukraine, Dmitry Kozak, has been pushed out of his position; “voluntarily resigning” yesterday. Rumor has it that Kozak is looking for a single floor house far from Moscow...

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues across the leading edge of the would-be Russian buffer, but there has been no significant change in the front line north of Sumy in the last 6 days.

Fighting continues just inside the border north of Kharkiv, and there are claims of small Russian gains in Vovchansk and Synelnykove (just south-west of Vovchansk), but neither has been confirmed.

Russian reporting has again claimed that Russian forces have occupied the small village of Dehtyarne - the north-east tip of Ukraine (about 50 miles north-east of Kharkiv), but this has not been reflected in any Ukrainian or neutral reporting.

Unconfirmed reporting suggests small Russian gains along the border, north of the Oskil River, between the river and Milove. 

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues along the length of the line of contact, but there have been no confirmed changes in the front line in the last 6 days.

However, Ukrainian General Staff reports of troops in contact show Russian and Ukrainian troops engaged 200 meters north of the Central City Hospital. Other reports suggest the fighting may have passed the hospital in the last 24 hours and that fighting has moved to within half a kilometer north of the intersection of the P07 and P79 roadways. Other reporting suggests Russian forces have gained control of much of Myrne and Sobolivka, to the immediate west of Kupyansk.

Further south, Russian reporting suggests that Russian forces have pushed into Derylove, along the Nitrius River, but this still has not been confirmed. 

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues east, north-east and north of Siversk but there have been no confirmed gains. However, there are claims of Russian gains just west of Hryhorivka (to the north-east of Siversk) and some small gains due east of Siversk.

Fighting continues north of Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces continue to try to push west into Virolyubivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in this area.

At the same time, imagery confirmed that Ukrainian forces had taken control of several blocks on the south-central edge of Chasiv Yar.

West of Toretsk there were no confirmed gains but it appears that Russian forces are tightening the grip on the terrain just east of the Kleban Byk Reservoir and may have overrun the Ukrainian positions inside Katerynivka.

Further west - north and north-east of Pokrovsk, the fight continues along the perimeter of the August Salient, and there are unconfirmed reports of small Ukrainian gains just south of Shakhove (the south-east corner of the salient), but this is unconfirmed.  The Ukrainian effort to cut off the August Salient is now being labeled as a “counter-offensive operation” by President Zelenskyy

In and around Pokrovsk, imagery confirmed Russian forces controlling the village of Troyanda, on the south-edge of Pokrovsk, and unconfirmed reports note multiple Russian recon probes into south and south-central Pokrovsk as well as reports of Ukrainian forces pushing the recon units back. Much of this will remain contradictory for a while as, for the most part, the recon units intend to withdraw, not hold terrain, so they probe, cause some mayhem and leave, the Ukrainian units respond to the initial action, then note the withdrawal, which is then reported by public affairs officers as the enemy being pushed back.

Fighting continues west and south-west of Pokrovsk, to the Vovcha River, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There were no confirmed changes in the front line, south of the Vovcha River and along the front across southern Ukraine. However, unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian elements west of the Zelenyi Hai - Oleksandrohrad - Sosnivka line have reached the Vovcha River. Whether they control all of that terrain or have simply conducted recon on it is not clear, but they continue to press west.

Further west in the Orikhov area and north of Kamyanske, imagery confirmed small Russian gains along the coast, pushing north from the Prymorske railway station. Other reporting suggests Russian gains along much of the line in that area, and also that Russian units have pushed into southern Stepnohirsk.

Air and Maritime Operations

There is an unconfirmed report that between late February and late August, drones from Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies have destroyed ("shot down" - rammed and destroyed) 440 Ukrainian Baba Yaga drones. The Baba Yaga drones (the name refers to a witch from Slavic myths and folklore) a larger, multi-rotor drones that are usually equipped with IR cameras and carry warheads of 50lbs or more.

Rubicon also targets Ukrainian drone units, in particular, drone operators.

Since the beginning of September Russian forces have launched more than 3,500 drones, 190 missiles, and more than 2,500 glide bombs into Ukrainian airspace.

1 x Shahed drone entered Romanian airspace late on the 13th.

During the night of September 17th-September 18th, Russian forces launched 75 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 48 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Poltava  oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

At least 5 civilians were killed as a result of strikes. 

During the night of September 16th-September 17th, Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 1 x S-300 ballistic missile and 172 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 1 ballistic missile and 136 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Cherkasy, Kirovhrad, Odessa and Poltava oblasts.

No civilian casualties reported.

During the night of September 15th-September 16th, Russian forces launched 113 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 89 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of September 14th-September 15th, Russian forces launched 3 x S-300 ballistic missiles and 84 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 59 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts.

No civilian casualties reported.

During the night of September 13th-September 14th, Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile and 58 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 52 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

During the night of September 12th-September 13th, Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, and 164 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW,  137 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

No civilian casualties reported.

During the night of September 11th-September 12th, Russian forces launched 40 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW,  33 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Civilian casualties reported in 3 killed and 5 wounded.

During the night of September 10th-September 11th, Russian forces launched 66 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 62 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

No civilian casualties reported.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep12 Sep18

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.51 68.00

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.28 64.05

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 2.92 3.06

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.20 5.30

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.50 83.19

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.23 41.15

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 60.98 63.70

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.67 69.81

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 62.77 64.24

Thoughts

It should come as no surprise that there was a good deal of talk on Friday at the UN Security Council about Russian drones over Poland, most everyone opined that the UN Charter should be honored, etc., etc., etc. Then the Ambassador from Ukraine asked:

“Does this council continue to wait until hell freezes over before we act? Or do we finally do what this council was created to do? And once again, End this bloody war before it destroys the entire planet.”

The meeting was adjourned immediately after his statement…

v/r pete