September 23rd, 2025 Rosh Hashanah

Politics - US Ambassador to UN comments on Russian air activity over Estonia 

- Moldovan President comments on arrest of Russian agents

Combat Ops - Small Russian gains

Weather

Kharkiv

84 and sunny, gusting to 20. Partly to mostly cloudy for the rest of the week, tomorrow’s highs in the mid 70s, then lows in the low 40s, highs in the mid 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

82 and sunny. Sunny all week; tomorrow's low in the 50s, highs around 80, then seven days with lows in the 40s and highs in the low 60s.   Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

73 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Rain tomorrow, and partly cloudy the rest of the week and weekend. Daily lows near 40, highs in the upper 50s. Winds northerly, about 10kts.

Politics 

Ambassador Mike Waltz, US Ambassador to the UN, commenting on the Russian Air Force MiGs entry into Estonian airspace:

"We expect Russia to seek ways to deescalate, not risk expansion. This event, following on the heels of the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace, creates the impression that Russia either wants to escalate and pull more countries into this conflict with Ukraine, or doesn't have full control those who operate their fighter planes and drones."

Moldovan President Sandu address her nation after arrests of pro-Russian agents:

"In all solemnity, I have to inform you that the sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and future of our country are in grave and immediate danger. The Kremlin has spent hundreds of millions in an attempt to destabilize and spread violence and fear across the Moldova. I am addressing all loyal citizens: do not permit the surrender of our country. Russia is not acting alone, they have many accomplices here in Moldova, traitors to their homeland that will sell it for a profit, as they have done before. These men don't have a country, they don't believe in Europe or in Russia, they believe in nothing but money.”

"Today I tell you with all seriousness that our sovereignty, independence, integrity and European future are under threat. The Kremlin is throwing away hundreds of millions of euros to buy hundreds of thousands of votes on both banks of the Dniester River, as well as outside the country.”

She commented on what might happen if pro-Russian forces were able to sway the election: 

"Europe will end at the border with Moldova. European funds will stop at the Prut. Freedom of movement may end. Our land may become an infiltration ramp to the Odesa Region. We, the people of the Republic of Moldova, cannot allow the country to surrender to foreign interests.”

Moldova’s Parliamentary elections will be held on Sunday, September 28th.

Sandu’s PAS - Party of Action and Solidarity (Partidul Acțiune și Solidaritate), is expected to win. As you may recall, last year, in the Presidential election last year Sandu ran against Alexandr Stoianoglo, an independent who was said to be strongly pro Russian. There were a host of accusations of vote buying by Russians, but int he end Stoianoglo accepted the results of the election.

President Putin announced that Russia will continue to follow the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year after it runs out next February, and asked the US to do the same.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLAST

Fighting continues along the perimeter of the Russian would-be buffer zone but there were no confirmed or claimed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv; there are unconfirmed claims of Russian gains on the south bank of the Vovcha River. (Note: there are two Vovcha Rivers: one that spans the Ukraine - Russia border, in the Kharkiv and Belgorod oblasts, and one in southern Ukraine in the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.)

Well to the east, north of the Oskil river, along the Russian border, it now appears that Russian forces have pushed across the border between the Oskil River and the town of Oradne at least 1 mile in; this gives Russia control of a strip of land from just north of Mylove, southward to the Oskil, a distance of about 12 miles., with the buffer between 1 to 5 miles wide.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported troops in contact about a half mile north of the train station, so Russian forces may have reached the train station but the center of the city is still being contested. There are conflicting reports as to the extent of Russian controls on the east and west side of the city, but it appears right now that the P07 roadway running roughly west out of the city remains under Ukrainian control, though it is receiving drone strikes and artillery fire from Russian forces.

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Shandryholove (on the east band of the Nitrius River) and have pushed into Derylove and have reached the east side of Novoselivka. There are claims of other Russians gains along the front that stretches from the Nitrius River to Torske and the Zherebets River but these have not been confirmed. Ukrainian forces continue to counter-attack to the north of this line - south-east of Borova, near Ridkodub, but there were no changes in the front line in that area.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues east and north-east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

In the Chasiv Yar area imagery confirmed small Russian gains south and south-east of that town as Russian forces try to close up the small pocket that Ukrainian forces hold west of the Donets Canal, south-east of Chasiv Yar, north-east of Bila Hora.

Imagery also confirmed Russian gains last week west of Toretsk, pushing into Pleshchiivka. This should close off the last sliver of land connection to the Ukrainian controlled pocket east of the Kleban Byk Reservoir, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold that small piece of terrain. There have been references of supplies being brought across the reservoir by boat, which would probably be a sporty event given the presence of drones and direct fire artillery.

Further west, in the fighting around the August salient, Russian forces appear to have closed up the Ukrainian thrust into the east base of the salient, just south of Shakhove. At the same time, on the west side of the salient, Ukrainian forces appear to have pushed a short distance into the salient and have retaken the town of Nove Shakhove. And Ukrainian forces continue to hold the small salient just east of the town of Bilytske.

Elsewhere, Russian assaults continued along the perimeter of much of the salient and at least 10 different sites immediately east and west of Pokrovsk. Russian probes continue into Pokrovsk, and imagery confirmed Russian gains in Novopavlivka, the small town immediately south-east of Pokrovsk, but there were no other confirmed changes in the front lines in and around the city.

Further to the south-west, fighting continues along the line from the Solone River down to the Vovcha river, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha fighting continues amidst claims of more Russian gains, but there have been no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting and repeated recon probes also continue east of Hulyaipole, as well as further west, south of and west of Orikhiv, but there were again, no confirmed changes in the line. 

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 22nd-September 23rd, Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 115 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 103 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 4 Ukrainian towns.

At least 6 civilians were killed and at least 18 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

Russian air defense assets reported that they shot down at least 69 Ukrainian drones in Russian air space, to include 31 drones shot down near Moscow, where airports were closed last night. As usual, Russia did not report on the number of droens that entered Russian air space.

During the night of September 21st-September 22nd, Russian forces launched 1 or more S-300 ballistic missiles and 141 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 132 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in  Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk,  Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 7 Ukrainian towns.

At least 7 civilians were killed and at least 4 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep22 Sep23

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 66.23 67.19

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 62.28 62.98

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 2.92 2.79

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.14 5.10

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.69 83.63

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.36 41.38

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 61.56 61.35

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 67.84 68.97

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.43 63.43

Ukrainian winter crops plantings so far this year stand at 3.95 million acres, an 11% decrease from last year at this time.

Thoughts

The interdiction of Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC), while always critical, seems to be growing in importance as Russian forces squeeze Kupyansk and Pokrovsk and Kostiantinivka. The question of the long range interdiction of GLOCs by FPV (First Person Video) drones has the potential of substantially changing the pace of the war. Russia went through a painful process in 2022 and 2023 of pushing back and breaking up command posts, ammo sums, fuel storage points, troops muster sites and training sites and there have been fewer and fewer successful Ukrainian strikes against such assets in 2024 or 2025. Note, this is not to say there have been none, there have been. But the number appears to have decreased and the severity has decreased. In part, this is simply because Russia has a great deal of space to drop back into. And it probably speaks to issues of effective Russian electronic warfare, and the ability of Russian assets to use Starlink and other western comms assets (cell phone infrastructure) to communicate with drones, while that is not as easily done inside Russia.

My sense is that the Ukrainians are having more problems with this than it first appears, though my “read” on this is purely inference. One of the things I have noticed is that Ukrainian “stories” often address issues in the Russian army that later appear to reflect what is going in the Ukrainian army. For example, while the Ukrainians capture few Russians, and pick up virtually no Russian dead or wounded, stories come out about Russian soldiers talking about inadequate training among recruits, wrong gear, poor leadership, etc., these are really efforts to raise Ukrainian issues that concern the front line units. Only when things get very bad to they comment directly on Ukrainian problems. 

In the past week Ukrainian field grade officers (majors and ltcolonels) have directly commented on interdiction of GLOCs around Pokrovsk and secondarily around Kupyansk; they have commented on inadequate training, they have commented improper weapons. Perhaps I am fooling myself, but my sense is that it is worse in the Ukrainian army now than it was in spring time. And strikes on the GLOCs is going to make that worse.

As for New START, one of the key US issues is that a future nuclear arms agreement must include China’s nuclear arsenal. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) doesn’t really work in a three way “gun fight.”

v/r pete