September 19th, 2025

Politics - Russian MiGs violate Estonian airspace

- 8 European countries still buying Russian natural gas

Combat Ops - Multiple small Russian gains

- Ukrainian drones hit Russian refinery 

Weather

Kharkiv

69 and partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then five days of sunny weather. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

70 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Partly cloudy tomorrow, then 5 days of sunny weather. Daily lows in the mid 50s, daily highs in mid to upper 70s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

69 and partly cloudy. Partly today and tomorrow, then sunny through next week. Daily lows in the high 40s to low 50, daily highs in the 70s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Politics 

Estonia reported that 3 x RuAF MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace this afternoon; the aircraft were in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. A protest has been delivered to the Russian ambassador.

The EU Energy office named 8 European countries that continue to import natural gas from Russia: Belgium, France, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain.

Yesterday I reported that in the exchange of bodies of the dead, Ukraine returned the bodies of 34 Russian soldiers; that number was incorrect, the correct number is 24. This brings the total Russian bodies returned by Ukraine to 102 (vice 112) since January 2025; the number of returned Ukrainian dead remains at slightly more than 13,000 since January.

President Putin extended General Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff) for another 5 years. Gerasimov turned 70 on September 8th.

Ground Operations

President Putin commented yesterday that there are now 700,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine.

Previous estimates put Russian forces between 610,000 and 650,000 as of late June - early July. And there have been reports of additional Russian forces being m moved into the Ukraine theater, these numbers and other estimates are in essential agreement. At the same time, the size of the Ukrainian army appears to remain around 800,000 - 900,000, with roughly 1/3rd in units deployed to the front line.

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continued along virtually the entire southern edge of the Russian buffer but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Fighting continued north of Kharkiv, near Hlyboke, and in Vovchansk and Synelnykove, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Further east, along the border between the Oskil River and Milove, Russian forces continued attacks south-west and claimed some gains west and south of that town, but these have not been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting was reported to the north-west and west of Kupyansk, as well as inside Kupyansk, but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. Ukrainian official reports insist that no Russian forces are in central Kupyansk, while other reporting suggests troops in contact several hundred meters north of the intersection of the two major roadways (P79 and P07). There is probably a “definitional” distinction, Russian forces do not occupy the center of the city, Russian troops probably control from the northern edge southward to just north of the major hospital - perhaps 200 - 300 yards. South of that  Russian elements are probing south and “no mans land” is between a half mile and mile wide south of that point.

At the same time, Russian forces are pressing into the west side of the city and the two “prongs” of the pincer are perhaps a mile apart.

Further south, along the Nitrius River, imagery confirmed that Russian forces had pushed into central Shandryholove, and there are claims of Russian forces now controlling Zarichne, though this has yet to be confirmed.

The expansion of the Russian hold around Shandryholove and Novoselivka to the west, and Zarichne to the east, would begin the creation of another pocket, north of Lyman and Stavky, consistent with Russian tactics for the last two years.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continued north of Bakhmut, but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

There were no confirmed changes near or west of Chasiv Yar; Russian forces continue to attack due west from the area just south of Maiske (north of Chasiv Yar).

Fighting continues around the Perimeter of the August salient, and there were no confirmed changes in the front lines. However, reporting suggests that the Ukrainian gains at the base of the salient, just south of Shakhove, has been retaken by the Russians, and that the Russians have also gained control of the town of Volodymyrivka (a town of about 6,000, just south of Shakove) and the town of Pankivka (immediately west of Volodymyrivka, a village of less than 100 people. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported on the 15th that Ukrainian troops had pushed the Russians out of Pankivka on the 14th; the Russian reattacked and have retaken the village.

Fighting continues east and west and south-west of Pokrovsk but there are no confirmed gains. Ukrainian reports note that Russian forces continue to flow into the area. Russian sources claim Russian forces continue to move into the city but this is denied by the UGS. Again, this is probably definitional, as lower lever Ukrainian units report Russian small unit probes into the south and west sides of Pokrovsk. It is of note that the line of clear Russian control now sits less than 600 yards from the edge of Pokrovsk proper and in one spot has reached the edge of the city.

Russian sources also claim that the town of Muravka, 15 miles south-west of Pokrovsk, on the Solone River, has been taken by Russian forces.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

There were no confirmed gains south of the Vovcha river but Russian reporting suggests that Russian forces now control all terrain south or east of the Vovcha river, as far south as Sosnivka (where the Vovcha turns to the east). The Russian line then continues south through Berezove to Novoinivka, and imagery confirms Russian forces have reached the center of that town; other reports suggest some Russian gains south of that town.

Imagery confirms Russian gains in southern Prymorske, pushing up the Dnepr River coast past the Prymorske railroad station. Unconfirmed reports also suggest some small Russian gains into Stepnohirsk from the south.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 18th-September 19th, Russian forces launched a not yet reported number of ballistic missiles and 86 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 71 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 1 Ukrainian town.

At least 5 civilians were killed and at least 2 were wounded as a result of strikes. 

Estonia reported that 3 x RuAF MiG-31s entered Estonian airspace this afternoon, for 12 minutes. A protest has been delivered to the Russian ambassador.

During the night of September 17th - September 18th Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Volgogradneftepererabotka Oil Refinery in Volgograd Oblast (about 200 miles east of Ukraine, 500 miles south-east of Moscow), temporarily halting production, and the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat Oil Refinery in the Republic of Bashkortostan (600 miles east of Moscow), resulting in a fire at or near that facility.

During the night of September 17th-September 18th, Russian forces launched 75 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 48 Shahed drones. 

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, and Poltava oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 7 Ukrainian towns.

At least 5 civilians were killed as a result of strikes. 

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep18 Sep19

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 68.00 67.03

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 64.05 63.14

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.06 2.87

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.30 5.24

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.19 83.46

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.15 41.36

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 63.70 63.19

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 69.81 69.84

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 64.24 63.73

Thoughts

The Ukrainian counter-offensive to reclaim the Russian salient (the salient opened up by minimal forces in mid August) is illustrative of the differences in the two armies: Russian forces move slowly, can grind forward, Ukrainian forces are able to move more quickly, and can respond and make quick thrusts into Russian lines through whatever seams they can exploit. But then the Russians slowly move more forces in and retake the terrain. 

In the case of the August salient, Russian gains were almost a mistake, as small, light units probed forward and found few if any Ukrainian troops, and kept pushing forward. What is of note is that the Ukrainians counter-attacked and reclaimed some of the terrain in the salient, but they have been unable to collapse most of it and in the few place where they had some initial gains - east of Bilytske, south-west of Shakove, and the north-west end of the salient, the counter-thrust has now appeared to have stalled as Russian forces flowed in. The north line appears to have frozen, Russian forces regained ground around Bilytske and Shakhove, are expanding those lines, and apparently continue to flow forces into the salient.

It is also of note that, with the exception of these brigade or smaller counter- attacks by Ukrainian forces, the daily grind on the front lines looks remarkably similar on both sides: small unit probes, lots of artillery fire (more by Russian and than Ukrainian artillery) and lots of drone “sniping;” on the whole, the Ukrainian high command continues to fight a war of attrition with the Russian army.

v/r pete