September 11th, 2025 24th Anniversary 

Politics - UNSC to meet on Drones over Poland

- Poland, Latvia tighten up airspace

- Germany wants to expand air surveillance

Combat ops - North Korean troops possibly in Kursk area

- Marginal Russian Gains

Weather

Kharkiv

73 and sunny. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and sunny, gusting over 20. Mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in mid to upper 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

73 and sunny, gusting over 30. Sunny today, clouding up by sundown, partly to mostly cloudy through next week, daily lows around 50, daily highs in the low 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

The Polish ForMin announced early today that the UN Security Council (UNSC) would hold an emergency meeting to discuss the Russian drones over Polish territory.

Later, Poland’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Krzysztof Szczerski, announced that the UNSC will meet on Friday at 3 PM - New York time (EDT) to discuss the incident.

The Polish Air Navigation Services Agency - PANSA - announced that air traffic along the Polish borders with Belarus and Ukraine would be limited from September 10th through December 9th.

Latvia then announced that it will close the airspace on the border with Russia and Belarus.

Germany has announced its intention to expand air surveillance of NATO’s eastern border, but provided no details.

Following a meeting on the 9th of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group, EU Commission President von der Leyen announced that the EU will provide 6 billion Euros ($7 billion) for Ukrainian drone production; the money is coming from interest on frozen Russian assets. 

German MinDef Pistorius stated that Germany will provide to Ukraine 2 Patriot “systems.” Presumably these are full batteries - each with radar, command van, support vans, 4 - 8 launchers, and a full complement of missiles. A “fully equipped" battery normally (standards may have changed) was equipped with 1 missile in each tube, plus 4 reloads for each tube, so 160 missiles.

Germany will also prove 300 million Euros ($350 million) to support Ukrainian drone production.

UK MinDef Healey stated that the UK will produce Ukrainian interceptor drones (numbers not given).

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

No confirmed changes but several unconfirmed issues of note: tactically, there are reports of Ukrainian gains at the western end of the Russian “buffer” along the border: the village Stepne, with perhaps 250 people, and the very small village of  Novokostyantynivka (just west of Stepne, with perhaps 5 or 6 houses), but the  the Russians had not been reported to have occupied this area, suggesting either the report is wrong, or the Russian actives along the border are more widespread than reported.

Also of note, there is a report that North Korean troops (one brigade) are now operating along the border in the Kursk region, due north of Sumy City.

There were no confirmed changes to the front lines north of Kharkiv.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are reports, both from Russian sources and the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) of engagements in north-east Kupyansk, and reports of Russian gains along the north edge of Kupyansk, but the exact locations aren’t known and no gains have been confirmed.

Further south, Russian forces appear to have made gains at multiple points between the Nitrius and Zherebets Rivers, with imagery confirming gains in Zarichne along the Zherebets River, and UGS reports confirming engagements near Koladzy, Stavky, Shandryholove and Serednie, which taken together suggest that Russian forces have pushed south-west and are gaining ground north of Dobrysheve.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

Fighting continues east and north-east of Siversk but there were no confirmed changes in the front lines.

North-west of Chasiv Yar Russian forces maintained the attack on Maiske and westward toward Virolyubivka, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line in this area, or in the terrain immediately west of Toretsk.

North-east of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces maintain their pressure on what remains of the August salient, but have not gained any ground, though there are unconfirmed reports of some gains near Maiak. Russian forces continue to flow into the salient and adjacent terrain and are renewing the attack, trying to extend the salient. On the west side of the salient imagery confirmed Russian gains near Novo Shakhove, and just east of the salient there are reports of Russian gains near Shakhove, pressing north in the direction of Sofiivka.

Fighting continues around Pokrovsk and there are multiple claims of Russian gains north, north-east and west of the city, but there are no confirmed changes in the front lines.

Fighting also continues to the south-west, in the area north of the Vovcha River, but again, despite claims of Russian gains, there are no confirmed changes in the front line.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha; as was noted several days ago, Russian forces were thought to be pushing westward into Sosniivka (a mile or so west of Vorone), that now appears to be correct.  

This area of the front doesn’t get a lot of media coverage, but the Russians are grinding forward here, slowly chewing up Ukrainian units, and taking land.

Fighting also continues across the south, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 10th-September 11th, Russian forces launched 66 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 62 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk and Odessa oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 3 Ukrainian town.

No civilian casualties reported.

A UAF Su-27 Flanker crashed about 10 miles north of the front line, nothing of Orikhiv, during what has been identified as a combat mission, the pilot was killed. The aircraft crashed over Ukrainian controlled territory but within easy range of a Russian SAM, if one were present. No other details yet.

During the night of September 9th-September 10th, Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 42 x Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 415 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 27 cruise missiles and 386 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Khmelnitsky, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Violin, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

At least 1 civilian killed and 7 civilians were wounded as a result of air strikes.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep10 Sep11

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.02 66.66

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.26 62.81

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.02 3.01

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.21 5.13

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 84.68 84.81

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.26 41.37

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 60.82 63.33

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.69 69.79

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.96 64.42

Thoughts

I started writing these notes for myself in late 2021, thinking that I might be watching a slow motion walk to a world war, and  feeling that most of what I read on line needed to be heavily dissected if I were to find something even approaching the truth. What I’ve seen in the past few days convinces me that, sadly, both of these thoughts are more or less correct.

Consider, France’s government, and to some extent its society, is falling apart in front of us. The UK is doing the same. The US is both larger and more stable than either of these two, but the US is clearly facing serious internal issues. Germany claims to be intent on fixing its army and air force and navy but given all the other “bills” they need to pay and all the other stresses on that economy, is it reasonable to think they will?

In Poland, the air space was penetrated by 19 drones (one could argue that it was a mistake, but would you put money on that in Vegas?) and NATO (the PAF and RNLAF) managed to shoot down just 4 of the drones (PAF F-16s, RNLAF F-35s, Italian AF G550 CAEW (airborne Early Warning), a German Patriot (didn’t shoot), and NATO tankers (combined aircrew, Airbus A330). 

To repeat, they managed to shoot down only 4 drones. This after 3 years of caterwauling that the "Russians Are Coming!” And Ukraine is starting to see the "bottom of the barrel" of Patriot missiles and the West, 42 months into the war, still can’t seem to increase the production of ordnance up to some sort of level that can both supply Ukraine and restock our ammo magazines - never mind fill those ammo stockpiles to much higher levels than the previous levels - because we realize we will need more.

Meanwhile, we are told that Russia’s economy is the one that is teetering on the edge, and the “Plan” is to sustain the war until Russia collapses, because it is going to happen “next year.”

Does it seem we got this wrong? Is this the best that our analysts can do? One wonders what advice they would have given General Haig on July 2nd, 1916...

v/r pete