September 10th, 2025

Politics - 19 Shaheds enter Polish Airspace - no injuries 

- Article 4 invoked - Consultations  

 

Combat Ops - 19 Shaheds Enter Polish Airspace - 4 shot down

Weather

Kharkiv

74 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Sunny tomorrow then mostly sunny through the weekend. Daily lows near 50, daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

76 and rain showers, gusting over 25. Mostly sunny tomorrow and through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 50s, daily highs in mid to upper 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

79 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Sunny tomorrow morning, then partly to mostly cloudy through next week, daily lows in the low 50s, daily highs in the mid 70s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Russian drones penetrated Polish airspace and the Polish and Dutch Air Forces responded (The RNLAF has a det of F-35s in Poland). The Polish government has called for an NATO Article 4 consultation. The current estimate - from PM Tusk - is that 19 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, though that number is subject  to change. No injuries have been reported.

Poland claims that it shot down 4 drones, a .211 batting average.

Per the Polish government (Ministry of Internal Affairs) Russian drone remains have been found in Czosnówka, Cześniki, Krzywowierzba-Kolonia, Mniszków, Oleśno, Wielki Łan, Wohyń, Wyhalew, Wyryki, Zabłocie-Kolonia, (all in eastern Poland, east of a line from Lublin to Lukow).

Operations were suspended at Poland’s largest airfields: Rzeszów-Jasionka, Lublin international, and both airports in Warsaw 

A building in Wyryki was struck by a drone, no one was injured.

PM Tusk:

“There is no reason to claim today that we are in a state of war. But there is no doubt that this provocation exceeds the limits of what has been previously accepted.”

"Article 4 is just the beginning of deeper cooperation for the security of our skies and our border, which is the border of NATO.”

"We are closer to open conflict than at any time since World War II. Poland has a political across its eastern border.”

"The decision to activate Article 4 was preceded by my consultations with President Nawrocki It is our joint decision - I emphasize this good cooperation, because we all know the political conditions in which we have to work."

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 4 has been invoked 7 times in since 1949

Article 5 has not been invoked. Article 5 has been invoked once, immediately after the terror attacks on September 11th 2001.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

President Zelenskyy on the incident:

"More and more facts indicate that such a movement, such a direction of the strike is not accidental. There have been incidents with individual Russian drones that crossed the border and covered a short distance on the territory of neighbors before. But now we are recording a much larger scale and purposefulness. Ukraine is ready to provide Poland with the necessary data on this Russian strike. Ukraine is ready to help Poland build an appropriate warning and defense system against such Russian challenges.”  "Together, Europeans are always stronger. Russia must feel that the response to this escalating step and, especially, to an attempt to humiliate one of the key European countries will be a clear and strong response from all partners.”

Meanwhile, a poll by the Levada Center (an independent polling organization) show Russian support for the war remains strong, with 78% supporting the fighting in Ukraine. Support has fluctuated between 74% and 80% since January, In addition, 66% believe Russia should engage in peace talks.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues across the front lines north of Sumy City with no confirmed charges in the area. Reporting suggests that the town of Yunakivka is now split in two, with Russian forces holding the north half and Ukrainian forces the south. At this point it isn't clear who is gaining ground in that town and who is losing it.

North of Kharkiv Russian forces were active west of Vovchansk and there were claims of Russian gains south of the Vovcha River, but these haven’t been confirmed.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There are claims of Russian gains all around Kupyansk, but none of them can be confirmed. Fighting continues north and west of the city, there appears to be fighting in the northern half of the city and reporting suggests that there has been little meaningful change in the front line as fighting has devolved down to small elements (squad and smaller) sniping at each other in the runs of the city.

Further south, there are multiple reports of Russian attacks in a broad arc from Karpivka south to Serednie and Novosolivka, and then east to Zarichne and Torske, and multiple Russian claims of gains, but none of these gains have been confirmed.

There continue to be multiple Russian claims that Russian forces now control the Serebrianske forest, and there is some reporting that suggests that the Russians control the entire forest area east of the Zherebets River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There are no confirmed changes north and north-east of Bakhmut, but there are unconfirmed reports that Russian recon units have entered the northern side of Siversk, and fighting is taking place in Dronivka, 3 miles north-north-west of Siversk.

West of Chasiv Yar fighting continues in Predtechyne, and in Oleksandro-Shultyne, as well as immediately west of Torestk, with imagery confirming Ukrainian gains in Katerynivka.

Further west, there are no changes to the August Salient, though fighting continues along its perimeter. Russian sources claim Russian gains just east of the salient, near the town of Shakove, but these are unconfirmed.

While there were no changes around Pokrovsk, or to the immediate west of that city, what is of note is continued Ukrainian reporting that Russian forces continue to move into the general area. These reports have not been confirmed independently.

Further west, along the Solone River, imagery confirmed Russian forces have moved into Muravka, and further south fighting is reported around Dachne and Filiia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues south of the Vovcha and Russian sources claimed gains both north and south-west of Ternove, but these have not been confirmed.

There were no confirmed changes across southern Ukraine, but Russian sources suggest Russian forces are closing on Novodanylivka, just south of Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 9th-September 10th, Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander ballistic missile, 42 x Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59 cruise missiles, and 415 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 27 cruise missiles and 386 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Khmelnitsky, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 1 Ukrainian town.

At least 1 civilian killed and 7 civilians were wounded as a result of air strikes.

Of interest, Ukrainian reports are claiming Russian FPV drones are striking Ukrainian vehicles on the T2122 roadway that runs from Barvinkove to Izyum.  The closest point of Russian forces to any section of this road is about 25 miles, and the Ukrainian reports suggest that the FPV drones are being delivered by “mother ships” that are dropping off the smaller drones and then linking back to controllers to conduct strikes.

There are videos on Russian web sties of “mother ship” drones dropping smaller drones, as well as showing the use of drones to act as communications relays to extend the operational range of these drones, so the reports are credible. Wide use of this tactic would have an obviously negative impact on sustaining forward forces.

Ukrainian naval drones (USV) struck targets in the port of Novorossiysk (east of Kerch). No specify targets yet released.

Ukrainian drones struck an oil pumping station in Penkino (about 120 miles east of Moscow) on the 7th. Imagery showed damage to two storage tanks.

Ukrainian drones struck 2 oil pipelines in Penza (about 300 miles south-east of Moscow) on the night of the 8th.

Ukrainian drones struck an oil pipeline in Krasnoarmeysky Raion, part of the Kuibyshev-Lysychansk pipeline, about 400 miles south-east of Moscow.

During the night of September 8th-September 9th, Russian forces launched 84  x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 60 Shahed drones.

Damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Lviv, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr   oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck 2 Ukrainian towns.

At least 24 civilians have been killed and 19 were wounded as a result of air strikes.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep10

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 67.02

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.26

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.02

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.21

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 84.68

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.26

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 60.82

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 68.69

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 63.96

Thoughts

Russian drones and cruise missiles have entered Polish airspace before - in ones and twos - as has a Ukrainian S-300 fired at a Russian cruise missile (2 years ago).

Russia appears, based on publicly available radar tracking, to continue to use multiple azimuths of approach for strikes on targets and often uses westerly run-ins, presumably to add a bit more confusion (an “unknown” approaching from the west - good guy or bad guy - harder to sort out for those elements engaging with gunfire, that don’t have radar or IFF (Identification Friend or Foe)).

But this also presents an opportunity to “tweak” NATO’s nose. It is, of course, of note that Poland and the Netherlands (there were two Dutch F-35s involved in the response) managed to shoot down 4 of 19 drones, a rather poor response given that the war is in its 42nd month and everyone has been commenting about “Russia coming west.” Seems like they should’ve been better prepared.

Meanwhile, it would seem the next step will be for Ukraine to call for a NATO “IADS” (integrated air defense system) that would also cover Ukraine. At the same time, it’s worth noting that Ukraine and the West are having difficulty maintaining an adequate supply of ammunition for the Ukrainian air defense system as it stands. Trying to stand up a robust IADS over Poland and the Baltic states would mean how many more systems? And I suspect Finland would start feeling a little “naked.”

But at the same time, given all the costs of a modern, western air force, IADS, etc., even if they could stand up a robust air defense grid… could they sustain it?

As an aside, President Eisenhower observed that great powers can’t be deterred by conventional weapons.

v/r pete