January 22nd, 2025 

Ground Ops - Russians take central Chasiv Yar

- Russian forces west of Pokrovsk, press on LOCs

- Velyka Novosilke squeezed

Politics - President Trump Statement 

Weather

Heavy cloud covers and poor weather are being exploited by the Russians to move forces with less fear of being spotted and attacked.

Kharkiv

31 and cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill low 20s. Cloudy through the weekend, snow showers Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s all day Thursday, and then in the low 30s through Sunday. Winds from the south-east or east, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

34 and mostly cloudy, gusting to 20, windchill mid 20s. Cloudy though the weekend, showers Saturday morning, temperatures in the 30s (highs and lows) through Friday morning, and then int eh 40s through the weekend. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy, gusting over 20, windchill low 20s. Cloudy for the week; temperatures hovering between 30 and 35 all week, snow showers tonight and Friday night. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the Kursk salient, and Russian forces appear to be gaining ground on the north-west and western edges of the salient, and fighting also continues south of Sudzhe, in Kurilovka, as Russian forces continue efforts to press north-west and cut of the lines of communication (LOC) from Ukraine that supply the salient.

North of Kharkiv

While fighting was noted in both small salients, there were no changes in the front lines or terrain held by either side.

North of the Donets River

While there were no confirmed gains north of Kupyansk, reporting suggests Russian forces continue to push west from Dvorichna, with Ukrainian General Staff  (UGS) reporting noting troops in contact just east of the town of Kutkivka, 5 miles north-west of Dvorichna.

Russian sources also report - again unconfirmed - that Russian forces have pressed into Zapadne, with some reports suggesting they control the entire town, while UGS reports suggest fighting ongoing in the center of the town.

To the south, fighting continues east of Borova, but there were no gains by either side. Further south, Russian forces pressing westward from Terny appear to have gained some ground and are now more than 3 miles west of the Zherebets River, which, if confirmed, would mean a gains of more than a mile in the last 48 hours.

Bakhmut

In the Bakhmut area, imagery confirmed that Russian forces did, in fact make gains in central Chasiv Yar and and now control the ceramics plant and central Chasiv Yar, though there appears to be a small Ukrainian element in the plant, that has been surrounded but has not surrendered.

Reportedly, 229 civilians remain inside the town.

In and around Toretsk, fighting continues around the mine waste piles on the north edge of the town; Russian forces appear to have pressed into Krymske and Dachne, but do not yet have full control of these two small towns.

Donetsk City

Ukrainian forces appear to have regained some ground west of Pokrovsk, on the western edge of Kotlyne, even as Russian forces in that area pressed further north and UGS reporting places Ukrainian forces about a half mile south of the E-50 roadway, about 4 miles west of Pokrovsk. With that road now under direct fire from Russian artillery, and presumably soon to be in Russian controlled terrain, that leaves just one road into or out of Pokrovsk, the T0515 roadway that runs north and then north-west to Oleksandrivka. It is worth noting that the road network to the north is less robust than the roads to the south and west of Pokrovsk.

Further to the south-east from Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue to press west and south-west, continuing to slowly roll over these small towns, while filling in small pockets and straightening lines. 

Russian forces continue to squeeze the pocket south of the Kurakhove reservoir (between the reservoir and the Sukhi Yaly River); the extent of the pocket varies depending on which source, but Russian forces are clearly making gains on the east side of the pocket. The question is whether Russian forces are closing up the west side and narrowing the “escape route” to the north-west.  Meanwhile, Russian forces just north of the pocket continue to press further west, which will add more difficulties to any Ukrainian troops truing to get out of the pocket. 

Russian forces continue to squeeze Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilke (VN) and it would appear that the Ukrainian holding has shrunk but this has yet to be confirmed in imagery. Reporting does suggest that Russian forces have pushed northward perhaps a half a mile, and the slice of land the Ukrainians control has narrowed as some Russian forces  appear to have pushed across the Mokri Yaky river (west side to east side). At this point it is easy to believe that Ukrainian forces, their resupply cut off, will have difficulty holding more than another week or two. Of course, depending on their actual state of manpower and supply, they may find themselves without options in less time than that

Southern Ukraine 

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Orikhiv, but here was no change in the front line.

Fighting was also reported on and near Kozatskyi Island (just downriver from Nakhodka), but there were no confirmed changes in terrain held.

Air Operations

During the night of 21-22 January Russian forces launched 99 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 65 drones, and 30 dorms were “lost” (defeated by EW).

Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv,  and Sumy oblasts.

During the night of the 20th Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 131 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 72 drones and 59 drones were “lost” (bright down by EW). Damage to power grid related infrastructure "caused by falling debris” was reported in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Poltava oblasts.

Fires continued to burn yesterday at the Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh, with strikes on the 15th and again on the 20th. There was also a drone strike on the Smolensk Aviation plant which produces and performs depot level maintenance SU-25 Forefoot aircraft.

Politics 

President Trump released as a statement directed to Russia:

I'm not looking to hurt Russia. I love the Russian people, and always had a very good relationship with President Putin - and this despite the Radical Left's Russia, Russia, Russia HOAX. We must never forget that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process. All of that being said, I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a "deal," and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States, and various other participating countries. Let's get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do it the easy way, or the hard way - and the easy way is always better. It's time to "MAKE A DEAL." NO MORE LIVES SHOULD BE LOST!!!

President Trump instructed Keith Kellogg, his lead negotiator, to end the fighting within 100 days.

President Putin again stated his starting bargaining position: Ukraine must cede all the terrain claimed by Russia and become neutral country.

President Zelenskyy commented that securing Ukraine would require a peace-keeping force of at least 200,000 European peacekeepers.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan21 Jan22

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 78.79 79.22

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 75.90 75.83

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.80 3.74

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.48 5.60

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 99.56 98.79

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.11 42.00

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 74.21 73.17

ESPO 65 77 78.19 80.29 80.72

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 75.26 74.54

Thoughts

There are ever more lurid reports of casualties in the Russian army. At 5,000 miles behind the lines it is impossible to determine what is the truth but to a certainty a great deal of what is being passed out is nothing more than unadulterated propaganda. And both sides are guilty. The problem is that there has been enough strange behavior and strange reporting in this war that just because something sounds absurd doesn’t mean it’s false. 

In the latest example of absurd behavior, Forbes reports that Russians soldiers in the 60th Combined Arms Army are in such short supply, that soldiers are being sent to the front on crutches. A video is then shown with perhaps 15 guys, wearing somewhat nondescript uniforms, with rifles - but not full combat kit, hobbling around on crutches and getting ready to move out - still on crutches.

The point is then made that Russia has suffered such terrible manpower losses that they now have to send everyone back into combat.

This dovetails with the claim that Russia has now suffered more than 800,000 casualties, more than 200,000 KIA and more than 600,000 WIAs.

There are several arguments that spring to mind, beyond the fact that there is nothing guaranteeing the video has one second of authentic Russian troops on it.

1) Russian casualties tracked by Mediazone - the one disciplined open source effort to count casualties, places Russian KIAs in the range of 90 - 100,000  (which would equate to perhaps 350,000 WIA.

2) Much is made of Russia’s 13,000 (latest number) of desertions. But Ukraine has had 100,000 desertions.

3) A leap is made that Russia is running out of manpower. But Russia has 5 times the number of people of Ukraine, and Ukraine is stripping troops out of air defense units and Turing them into infantry men.

4) Stridently overlooked is that IF the Russian army was sending men to the front in crutches, and IF Russian tactics were as simplistic as is said, and IF Russian leadership was as lacking is is commonly held, this war would have been over in months, and Ukraine would have been the winner. Instead, the war is about to enter its 4th year.

In fact, Russia stopped the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russia bounced back after a disastrous strategic error at the start the war, Russia has pressed forward without a general mobilization, and most importantly, Russia is clearly winning on the ground.

In the last few days one of Ukraine’s deputy defense ministers made the point that wars are won at the strategic level, not the tactical one, and that Ukraine’s strategy is sound.

I’m not sure that is a valid conclusion. Ukraine has chosen to fight a war of attrition against a country 5 times its size, and apart from Ukraine’s literally unbelievable (as in not believable) numbers on casualties on both side, it appears that Ukraine’s manpower crisis is as dire or more dire than Russia’s.

Russia is facing economic troubles; Ukraine is not because the West is keeping her afloat. Both Russia and Ukraine are suffering manpower problems. Which country’s manpower crisis is worse can’t be known without access to certain information. But there is a real concern that, in fact, the manpower problem is worse, and maybe far worse, in Ukraine. If so, the recent claims of a Russian manpower crises start to sound like mirror imaging.

v/r pete