January 28th, 2025 

Ground Ops - Russian Gains - Chasiv Yar, Toretsk

         - Velyka Novosilke in Russian hands

Politics          - Putin “Ready “ to negotiate 

        - PM Fico of Slovakia call Ukraine an enemy

Weather

Note temperatures in the 30s and 40s, raw weather, unpleasant for the infantry, but the fields will begin to thaw and become muddy, making logistics and movement more difficult. Also many days will have solid overcasts, degrading reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

40 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers on Saturday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, highs in the mid 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

43 and mostly cloudy. Cloudy for the next week; daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs near 50. Winds south-easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

44 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s through the weekend.  Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continued throughout the weekend but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

That said, with weather inhibiting confirmation of changes in the line, it does appear that Russian forces have taken the town of Nikolayevo-Darino, which is the western edge of the salient, where it comes in contract with the Ukrainian  border, and overall it appears that the salient is being squeezed by the Russians, with the thinnest point of the salient (its waist, from Lebedevka to Makhnovka), now about 8 miles across.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continued through the weekend but there were no changes in the front line.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along essentially all of the line of contact, but there were few confirmed gains - in large part due to the weather, which inhibits satellite verification of movements of the line.

North of Kupyansk Russian forces claimed to have finally gained full control over the town of Dvorichna, thought his can’t be proven. However, while there may be small Ukrainian elements left in the town, right now it appears that the Russians do have control. Further, Russian forces have pushed to the north-west and the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports fighting on the eastern edge of the town of Kutkivka.

Russian forces also claim small gains as they push west, just north of Zapadne, but these also have not been confirmed.

To the south of Kupyansk, Russian forces were active  north-east of Borova near Lozova, Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, and Zelenyi Hai, but do not appear at this point to have gained any ground in their push to the west and southwest, and remain about 7 miles north-east of Borova.

Bakhmut

Fighting contend north of Bakhmut but there were no noted changes in the front line in this area.

Russian forces made gains in central Chasiv Yar over the weekend and only a thin slice of the town remains in Ukrainian hands. Russian forces have pushed through and are now pressing into the east side of Shevchenko. Additional Russian assaults were noted on the east edge of Stupochky as well as further south, just outside of Bila Hora.

Ukrainian forces made small gains in the north-west edge of Toretsk on Sunday and Monday. However, overall, Russian forces made gains in several areas and the town now appears to be in Russian hands, as does all of Krymske, just north of Toretsk. Several small Ukrainian elements appear to be still inside the town, but have been surrounded and the Russians are attempting to eliminate them. None of the reliable Ukrainian blogs show any meaningful part of Toretsk to be in Ukrainian control.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground around Pokrovsk. To the south, south-west and west Russian forces made small gains pushing into Udachne on the T0406 roadway, but north of Kotlyne Russian forces still have not reached the E-50 Roadway that runs north-west out of Pokrovsk, and in fact appear to have fallen back perhaps a mile in this area. At the same time there are reports of increased numbers of probes by small elements (3 or 4 men) into Pokrovsk itself, from the south and west.

East of Pokrovsk Russian forces in the Vozdvyzhenka area continue to push north and expand their holdings on the south side of the T00504 roadway, but have not expanded their position north of the road.

Overall, Russian forces are gradually straightening their lines and appear to be within a few weeks of setting up a fairly straight front line that would run from Udachne to Velyka Novosilke, as soon as they can close up the pocket south of Kurakhove.

South and west of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to push slowly west and appear to have overrun the small town of Dachne, eliminating about a quarter of the small pocket between the Sukhi Yaly River and the Vovcha River. West and Northwest of Kurakhove Russian forces also continue to press westward, pushing into Andriivka and into the terrain west of Slovyansk. 

Ukrainian forces appear to have withdrawn from Velyka Novosilke and Russian forces have moved into the town, and moved north on the west bank of the Mokri Yaly River and Russian forces now control Novyi Komar and west to the river and from there south-west about 4 miles to a point just west of Vermivka. Ukrainian forces withdrew in order to avoid encirclement. There are reports of Ukrainian elements still holding some positions in the town, but Russian forces are working to clear the town of these elements.

On Sunday President Zelenskyy named the Ground Forces Commander (MGEN Drapatyi) as the commander of forces in this sector, replacing the current commander, BGEN Hnatov. Drapatyi will remain Ground forces Commander while also exercising his role as force commander in the Pokrovsk front (known as the Khortytsia Group of Forces). Hnatov will become Deputy Chief of Staff of the UGS.

Southern Ukraine 

Probes, reconnaissance patrols and small unit probes were reported across southern Ukraine and along there Dnepr River but there were no changes noted in the front lines. Cloud cover continues to limit reconnaissance drone usage on both sides.

Air Operations

Both sides continued routine drones strikes throughout the weekend. The Ukrainian General Staff claimed to have struck a Shahed drone storage facility and destroyed 200 Shahed drones.

On the night of the 27th and into the morning of the 28th Russians forces launched at least 1 cruise missile and 104 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down the cruise missile, as well as 65 drones. 28 drones were “lost,” defeated by EW, and 2 flew into Belarus airspace. 

  Ukrainian sources reported damage to private businesses, infrastructure facilities, apartment blocks and private houses, but no fatalities noted. Per the UAF, all damage was caused by falling debris.

The Russias assert that the attack was on power grid - infrastructure targets.

Politics

President Putin commented that he is ready to “assign people” to a negation g team and begin negotiations with Ukraine. Putin commented on the issue of the Ukrainian law that prevents negotiations with Putin.

"Negotiations can be conducted with anyone… If he [Zelenskyy] wants to participate in negotiations, I will assign people to conduct them. The issue lies in the ultimate signing of documents. This is a crucial issue that must guarantee the security of both Ukraine and Russia for a serious, long-term historical perspective. There must be no errors or inconsistencies.”

On 4 October 2022 President Zelenskyy signed a decision of the National Security and Defence Council (NSDC) on the "impossibility of conducting negotiations with the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin." 

Putin has called for the decision to be rescinded some direct negotiations.

The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced suspension of the United for Ukraine (U4U) program for Ukrainians escaping the war.

The program is suspected for 90 days, and until USCIS has reviewed all earlier request.

Iryna Vereshchuk, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, announced that that President Zelenskyy’s office will consult with President Trump’s office to address the suspension of USAID support.

"In the near future, we will begin substantive consultations with our American partners to continue funding humanitarian response projects in Ukraine as soon as possible.”

The suspension does not affect military and to Ukraine.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico, at a meeting of the Slovak Parliament’s Economic Committee,  called President Zelenskyy an "enemy" of Slovakia during talks about the movement of Russian natural gas across Ukraine.

"Our enemy is Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy caused the problems we are facing. I don’t like him because he is harming Slovakia."

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan24 Jan28

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 78.59 77.40

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 74.75 73.46

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.36 3.54

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.45 5.40

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.29 98.60

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.89 41.92

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 72.65 70.16

ESPO 65 77 78.19 80.09 78.90

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 74.13 73.29

Thoughts

Stress continues to slowly build inside the political sphere - Slovakia angry at the loss of its natural gas supply from Russia, general concern over the situation in Transnistria, worries about aid and grants in the wake of the US efforts to fix a seemingly out of control foreign aid and immigration system, calls from the outside for negotiations, and the continued losses on the battlefield.

Meanwhile the battlefield losses continue to mount. Velyka Novosilke has fallen, Torestsk has all but fallen, Chasiv Yar is not far behind. The Kursk salient is slowly being squeezed. And while much is made of the tremendous - and exaggerated - Russian casualties, there is little noise made about major Ukrainian casualties and the likely manpower shortfall that they are facing. Russia’s economy is once again coming under pressure, but with the suspension in aid and grants, so is Ukraine’s, which needs all the aid it can get.

It may well be that Putin, despite all the loud blustering, really is ready for negotiations. It is also likely that there has been some low level of talks going on at least since Trump won the election in the November. Now they need to turn that talk into a ceasefire, and the Verkhovna Rada needs to act to ensure that they can respond to such an offer, even if it comes from Vlad Putin.

v/r pete