January 23rd, 2025 

Ground Ops - Gains around Pokrovsk

- Velyka Novosilke falling?

Politics  - Kremlin sees nothing new

Economics - Ukraine inflation up, GDP down

Weather

Kharkiv

30 and cloudy. Cloudy through the weekend, snow showers Friday. Temperatures in the 30s through Sunday. Winds from the south-east or east, 5kts.

Melitopol

36 and cloudy. Cloudy though the weekend, daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

32 and cloudy, gusting over 25, windchill low 20s. Cloudy through the weekend; temperatures (highs and lows) in the 30s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues on both the western and eastern edges of the salient but there were no noted changes to the front line.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported into the two small Russian salients but there were no confirmed changes.

North of the Donets River

North of Kupyansk Russian sources insist Russian forces now control Zapadne, but this has not been confirmed, and some reporting suggests that the Russians are circling the town rather than pushing into it. South of Kupyansk, in the area east of Borova, and further south in the Terny area, fighting continues but there were no reports of any changes in the front lines.

Bakhmut

Russian forces continue to make small gains in Chasiv Yar, pushing further into the center of the town as well as pushing further westward. Ukrainian elements in the ceramic factory are surrounded but are holding out.  

Further south, Russian forces continue to advance in and around Toretsk, pushing north into Krymske, pushing further west and squeezing Ukrainian elements on the mine refuse hills; the mine waste heaps, however, appear to remain in Ukrainian hands.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground south-west and now west of Pokrovsk. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces did gain ground north of Kotlyne and are now less than 1 mile south of the E-50 roadway, about 4 miles west of Pokrovsk. The terrain between the Russian positions and the roadway is one large, well manicured field; that road is under direct fire from Russian artillery. Russian forces also gained ground east of Pokrovsk as they push north and north-west, and forces north of Vozdvyzhenka have reached  the T0504 roadway. This leaves only the T0515 roadway and adjacent rail line to the north as a logistics line into the town; given the limited road network to the north, Pokrovsk is effectively encircled.

To the south-west of Pokrovsk Russian elements continue to probe down the Vovcha River to the west.

  West and north-west of Kurakhove, Russian forces continue to slowly push in forward into and through the towns of Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, and Slovianka.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to eat away at the shrinking pocket, and gained some ground on the east side yesterday. Russian forces also gained some small ground on the western edge, pushing northward towards Andriivka and narrowing the “jaws” of the pocket to about a mile across - the terrain between the small town of Ulakly on the south side of the Vovcha River and the eastern end of the town of Andriivka on the north side of the river. There is an open stretch of marsh that is more than a half mile wide that, presumably is now under direct fire from Russian artillery.

Russian forces continue to squeeze Velyka Novosilke; with forces closing on the center of town from the east and the west. Fighting is reported north, northeast and west of the town as well. Despite the multiple reports of fighting, it appears that the Russians are engaging isolated pockets of Ukrainian troops and that, as a whole the Russians are close to securing the town and the immediate surrounding area 

Southern Ukraine 

Russian forces continue operations across southern Ukraine and along the lower Dnepr River, but there were no changes in the front line.

Air Operations

On the night of January 22nd-23rd Russian launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 92 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and 27 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW).

Ballistic missile strikes were reported in Zaporizhzhia and drones were reported  in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

During the night of January 21st-22nd Russian forces launched 99 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed that it shot down 65 drones and that 30 drones were “lost” (brought down by EW); damage was reported to infrastructure and residential buildings in Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv,  Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts.

Politics

The Kremlin responded to President Trump’s call for a ceasefire or a threat of more sanctions with the response that they didn’t see any “new elements,” but added the spokesman (Dmitry Peskov): “The Kremlin remains open to equal and respectful dialogue.” 

President Zelenskyy called for at least 200,000 peacekeeping troops and insisted that US troops would be a necessary element of any peacekeeping force.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan22 Jan23

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 79.22 79.26

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 75.83 75.64

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.74 3.95

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.60 5.56

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.79 99.75

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 42.00 41.97

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 73.17 72.65

ESPO 65 77 78.19 80.72 80.76

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 74.54 74.25

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)  has modified its inflation forecast for 2025 from 6.9% to 8.4% but implied that they would still make the target of 5% inflation for 2026.

At the same time, the NBU changed its forecast for GDP growth for 2025 from 4.3% growth to 3.6% growth.

Thoughts

President Trump talked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia about Saudi investments in the US (the Prince has reportedly promised at least $600 billion) and Trump also talked about Saudi Arabia increasing production of oil and thereby pushing oil prices lower and thereby applying pressure on Russia.

Meanwhile, as noted above, the Kremlin said “nothing new here,” but they are remaining polite. I would suspect they are awaiting a 1-on-1 phone-call between Putin and Trump.

And President Zelenskyy is insisting that any peacekeeping force must have US troops.

Russia insists that they see noting new, but their economy is weaker now than it was a year ago, never mind when Trump was last in office. They need to talk a good game, and Medvedev and Lavrov have been sounding off as usual, Medveded playing the rabid dog, Lavrov the immovable rock. But those roles can be changed whenever the director (Putin) wishes; Putin is waiting to see what he can get from Trump.

Zelenskyy meanwhile wants NATO membership and US troops. I find it hard to imagine Trump will give either, though he might agree to something slightly different, perhaps some sort of headquarter’s element, plus a THAAD battery, or some other dedicated missile defense asset (AEGIS Ashore, for example, though one is already in Poland, just west of Gdansk) or something along those lines.

But the real point here, even as Velyka Novosilke appears to once more be in Russian hands, is that there is the first hint of talking. And, while public positions don’t necessarily translate into sound negotiating positions, it is a start.

v/r pete