January 7th, 2025 

Ground Ops  - Ukrainian and Russian forces gain in Kursk Salient

- Both sides gain near Pokrovsk, but Russians gain more

- Kurakhove and Toretsk: both will fall to Russian forces soon

Politics  - Kellogg trip delayed

Weather

Note temperatures remain above freezing; with scattered showers, off road will be muddy and tend to force the use of roads vice frozen fields.

Kharkiv

40 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy the rest of the week, rain showers Saturday. Daily lows in the mid 30s, daily highs in the 40s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

44 and cloudy, gusting to 20.  Mostly cloudy for the next week, sunny Friday morning, rain showers on Saturday, daily lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs near 50. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

37 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Mostly cloudy and warm through, rain Wednesday night, rain again Friday and Saturday (snow possible Saturday). Temperatures (both daily highs and daily lows) will remain in the 30s through the weekend.  Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Ukrainian forces made small gains north-east of Sudzha, consisting of three mechanized platoons conducting three independent probes of Russian lines, in what has been characterized as reconnaissance (It was, in fact, described as “reconnaissance in force,” but as each of the three elements were not quite platoon in size, I think the “in force” part is a bit over-done.) That said, it is unclear as to what forces they are conducting reconnaissance for, or what the Ukrainian following operations might entail.

At the same time Russian forces west of Malaya Loknya (on the north-west edge of the salient) completed the seizing of Leonidovo, and also, most significantly, Russian forces in the vicinity of Makhnovka (south of Sudzha) pushed westward and Russian elements appear to have made it across the Sudzha river and into the small town of Kurilovka, moving Russian forces closer to one of the two GLOCs feeding the Ukrainian forces.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in the vicinity of Vovchansk but there were no changes to the front lines.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues north of Kupyansk, along the Oskil River, but there were no changes to the front line in this area.

South of Kupyansk, Russian forces continue to try to expand their positions along the east bank of the Oskil, pushing south toward Bohuslavka, but there were no confirmed gains. To the east, Russian forces pushing south-west towards Borova made no gains.

Further south, Russian forces in the Terny area (along the Zherebets River), continue to make small gains around Terny and also near Ivanivka.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north-east of Bakhmut, east of Siversk and in the immediate vicinity of Bilohorivka (north-east of Siversk) but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Russian forces remain on the attack in Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes in the front line noted in the last 24 hours. However, anecdotal reporting from bloggers suggests that Russian forces have taken the ceramics factory on the north side of town, and pressed further west into the north end of Chasiv Yar.

Further south, Russian forces continued to advance in Toretsk and it now appears that the Ukrainian forces hold only a thin slice of the north-west edge of the town (perhaps 10% of the town). Russian forces also appear to have advanced into Shcherbynivka, just south-west of Toretsk.

Donetsk  City

Both sides had some gains in the towns immediately east and south of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces made some gains on the west edge of Vozdvyzhenka (15 miles east of Pokrovsk) Russian forces also had some gains in the same area, as well as continuing to make gains south and south-west of Pokrovsk.

Of note, the oblast government reports that there are an estimated 7,000 civilians remaining in Pokrovsk, out of a pre-war population of  60,000.

South-east of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian reporting continues to insist that Russian forces do not control Kurakhove, but it would appear at this point that only small pockets of Ukrainian forces remain on the edge of the industrial zone, specifically around the thermal power plant complex in the north-west corner of the town.

South of Kurakhove the small pocket remains open to the north-west and presumably Ukrainian forces are getting some support. Whether Ukrainian forces intend to hold, or are withdrawing to the north-west, is not known.

There were no confirmed Russian gains around Velyka Novosilke (VN).

Southern Ukraine and the Dnepr River

Fighting continues in the area around Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting also continues along the Dnepr and on some of the islands in the river but there were no confirmed changes.

Air Operations 

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes were conducted against Russian air defense assets and Ukrainian forces claim they destroyed 2 x Pantsir S1 (SA-22), an Osa (SA-8), and 2 x S-300 systems in the last 2 days. Pantsir is a 7 mile range surface to air missile system, mounted on an armored vehicle; Osa is a 9 mile range, vehicle mounted system as well. S-300 is a long-range system with a wide range of variants, and maximum ranges varying from 45 to 200 miles. An S-300 battery normally consists of 4 or more launchers, a radar van and a command van. Destruction of the command van or the radar is the usual target; what they destroyed here is unknown.

During the night of the 5th Russian forces launched 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and 128 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down both missiles and 79 drones, and 49 drones were “lost” (defeated with electronic warfare). The UAF insisted that no drones hit any targets and any targets that were hit were hit by falling debris. At the same time, damage was reported across 5 oblasts… Ukrainian Rail reported multiple hits on the rail system in the Kyiv area. 

Politics

President Zelenskyy reported that North Korean forces have taken 3,800 casualties since being deployed to the Kursk salient.

Assuming a “normal" ratio of killed to wounded (1 : 3.5), that would translate into 850 KIA and 2950 WIA. The first North Korean elements were on line in the Kursk area by early November, so 8 weeks of combat. Russian forces have averaged something on the order of 0.0057 casualties per week. For a 12,000 man force that would run to 68 casualties per week, or 544 casualties in 8 weeks; this number is 7 times that rate. Either this is just propaganda bloat, or if it is anything approaching an accurate count, suggests very poor tactics by, or use of, the North Koreans. 

LTGEN Kieth Kellogg (Ret.), President-elect Trump’s designated envoy for the Ukraine - Russia war, will postpone his fact-finding trip to Kyiv until after the January 20th.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Oct8 Nov12 Dec9 Jan6 Jan7

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 77.30 72.25 72.63 76.92 76.91

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 73.59 68.50 68.85 74.33 74.01

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 2.74 2.97 3.17 3.66 3.64

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.93 5.66 5.59 5.37 5.40

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 96.83 98.36 100.84 108.04 107.00

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.40 41.55 42.25 42.26

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 73.30 67.53 66.19 70.62 71.17

ESPO 65 77 77 77 78.42 78.41

Sokol 66.23 72.10 65.19 65.32 69.61 71.85

Thoughts

What exactly the Ukrainians are doing in the Kursk salient with the three platoon-sized (at best) attacks isn’t clear. They might be trying to cause enough angst that it forces Russian higher headquarters to redirect force to the salient, but that failed previously and there is no reason why Russia would fall for it this time. 

Deutsche Welle interviewed Austrian military historian Markus Reisner who offered a different explanation: this action - these attacks, are meant to impress President elect Trump.

Reisner also noted that the Ukrainian forces actions in the Kursk salient could not be considered an offensive.

"The offensive will mean that large formations, types of armed forces will conduct an offensive throughout the territory to achieve objectives at the operational level.”

He did offer though that the Ukrainians will probably try to surprise the world immediately prior to the inauguration, and they could probably generate a force of 3 brigades in doing so.

v/r pete