January 29th, 2025  Next Summary 31 January

Ground Ops - Russian forces take Velyka Novosilke

- Russian advances around Pokrovsk 

- Russian advances in Southern Ukraine

Politics - MinDef Umerov under investigation 

Weather

Temperatures remain above freezing until Monday across most of Ukraine, raw, damp, unpleasant for the infantry, but the fields will remain muddy, making logistics and movement more difficult. Also, many days will have low, solid overcasts, and some fog in the mornings, all degrading reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

41 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week, rain or snow showers Saturday through Tuesday. Daily lows in the upper 30s, highs in the low 40s. Winds variable, 5kts.

Melitopol

43 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Cloudy for the next week; daily lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, daily highs near 50. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

45 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week, rain showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s through Saturday night; Sunday and Monday temperatures around freezing all day. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient 

Fighting continues along much of the perimeter of the salient, but there were no independently confirmed changes in the front lines. Reporting of activity levels suggests Russian forces are maintaining a high ops tempo along the entire perimeter.

The somewhat Orwellian named Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reports that North Korean units in the Kursk salient may be withdrawing from combat due to losses; this has not yet been confirmed.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting was reported near both Vovchansk and Starytsya, but there were no changes in the front lines.

North of the Donets

Russian forces north of Kupyansk appear to control most of Dvorichna - all but one street leading northwest out of the town. Russian forces also continue to attack on the eastern edge of Kutkivka (north-west of Dvorichna) and on the east side of Zapadne, per the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS), but there were no observed gains.

Further south, fighting continues north-east of Borova, near Zelenyi Hai, and east of Borova near Kopanky, but there were no confirmed gains in the area.

Fighting also continues west of Kreminna, with Russian forces still pushing west from the Terny area but there has, again, been no confirmed gains in the area.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues but there were no changes to the front line north and north-east of Bakhmut.

The UGS reported fighting in central and southern Chasiv Yar, and south of Chasiv Yar, in Predtechyne and near Bilo Hora, all of which supports an assessment of slow, but real Russian gains, but there were no confirmed gain or losses of terrain.

Russian sources appear to be slowly absorbing Toretsk, though Ukrainian forces appear to have made small gains in the northern edge of the town. There are small slices of Toretsk, Krymske and Dachne still in Ukrainian hands, but those area are getting smaller.

South of Toretsk Russian forces now control terrain from perhaps 2 miles north-north-west of Niu York, dues south about 6 miles to a spot about a mile north of Novobakhmutivka along the Pokrovsk salient’s northern edge.

Donetsk City

Some “see-saw” gains and losses of terrain are taking place just south of Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian forces regaining control of slices of Kotlyne and Zvirove, but overall Russian forces continue to gain ground, and the UGS reports that Russian forces have pushed into Udachne (8 miles west-south-west of Pokrovsk), and now control Uspenivka and Novoandrivka.  Forces east of Pokrovsk continue to attack both north and west and continue to make small gains.

South-west of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to push westward from the east side of the pocket. The east edge (running north-south) is now lined up with the west edge of the town of Dachne, and the pocket is now less than 3 miles wide (east to west). North-west of Kurakhove Russian forces have taken Slovyanka and pushed into the surrounding farmland. 

Reporting suggests that clearing operations continue in Velyka Novosilke (VN), but VN is under Russian control, as is Novyi Komar (just to the north), and Russian forces are now attacking Ukrainian positions west of Rozdolne (north-east of VN).

Southern Ukraine 

The UGS reported that Russian forces have taken the town of Stepove, about 7-8 miles east of Kamyanske (15 miles west of Orikhiv, astride the T0812 roadway), but did not say when the Russians took the town.

This event highlights one element of the nature of the fighting in the south - there is very little reporting on it. Even among the many bloggers who try to follow the war, there is so little raw reporting coming out of the south, it is difficult to maintain a solid grasp of what is happening.  The UGS reporting routinely suggests that little is happening, but there are sporadic reports, such as this one, that the suggests much more Russian activity.

Air Operations 

Wrap up of the strikes on the 27th: Russian forces launched 1 x Iskander cruise missile and 1004 x Shahed droned into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 65 drones, 28 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW), 2 drones flew into Belarus air space. Damage was reported in Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa Poltava and Sumy oblasts, to include damage to "critical infrastructure” (probably electric power generation related equipment) Cherkasy Oblast, resulting 72 towns temporarily losing power. The cruise missile and several drones struck power grid in Odessa oblast.

Politics

Reuters is reporting that Ukraine’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau has launched in investigation into actions by Minister of Defense Umerov, specifically that he improperly failed to renew a contract with the head of the Defense Procurement Board after the Defense Procurement Agency unanimously recommended the contract be extended.

The US transferred 90 x Patriot Missiles to Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan28 Jan29

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 77.40 77.03

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 73.46 73.33

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.54 3.40

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.40 5.51

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.60 98.57

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.92 41.90

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 70.16 70.06

ESPO 65 77 78.19 78.90 78.53

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 73.29 73.19

Thoughts

The report of Russian forces taking Stepove is of note. Assuming the UGS isn’t telling a lie (why would they?), the Russians have not only taken Stepove, they presumably also took the town between Stepove and the Russian lines, Piatykhatky, and  more importantly, the T-0812 roadway, which runs right through Stepove, providing support to terrain between Orikhiv and Kamyanske which now becomes vulnerable. As a reminder, Russian forces operating north-west of Robotyne (which sits due south of Orikhiv) have already reached the general area of Novoandriivka, just west of Orikhiv, on the same roadway. There is a strip of land, about 2 miles wide north of that road, farmland with no major villages, and no defensive positions in it; presumably the Russians will begin or work their way into that terrain, as soon as they can bring engineers forward and prepare more defensive positions. Of course, what is unknown is the extent of Ukrainian forces occupying the two defensive lines which run roughly east - west from Novopavlivka to Pavlivka to Stepnohirske (on the Dnepr).

Russian forces can now push north towards central Eastern Ukraine. The $64,000 question now becomes”What forces do the Ukrainians have manning those defensive positions?”

Overall, Russian tactics remain unchanged, using small team to probe, and find Ukrainian troops and guns and then using artillery and drones to attack the positions, followed by infantry assaults - normally, multiple rifle teams (3 - 5 soldiers) attacking, or perhaps in squad sized element (7-10 soldiers), rarely as platoons. 

Also, a look at the map shows the Russian forces squeezing Pokrovsk while also slowly grinding “forward” from Chasiv Yar (heading to the west-south-west) from Toretsk (heading north-west) and from just east of Pokrovsk (heading to the north-east). These three vectors all meet at Kostiantynivka, the southern most of the major defensive positions remaining in the major Ukrainian defensive positions built up in 2014.

v/r pete