January 24th, 2025  Next Summary 28 January (Tuesday)

Ground Ops - Small Russian Gains in Kursk Salient

         - Small Russian Gains around Toretsk

         - Velyka Novosilke cut in two by Russians?

Politics         - Putin ready to talk?

Weather

Kharkiv

32 and cloudy. Snow showers tonight, cloudy for the next week. Daily lows in the low to mid 30s, highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds southerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

38 and cloudy. Cloudy for the next week; daily lows in the mid to upper 30s, daily highs in the mid 40s. Winds easterly, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

34 and cloudy, windchill 26. Cloudy for the next week; temperatures will see lows in the mid 30s, highs int he mid 40s. Winds southerly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Fighting continues along most of the perimeter of the salient, with the Russians making small gains south and south-east of Sudzha, in both Kurlivka and further south in Guyevo.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in both small salients, but there were no changes in the front lines.

North of the Donets River 

Russian forces continued  operations along the Oskil, north of Kupyansk, also along and just  of the Oskil south of Kupyansk, and along the Zherebets near Terny - yet there were no confirmed gains or losses of any terrain. However, there is reporting that suggests Russian forces north of Kupyansk, operating in the area west of Dvorichna, are now within a mile of Kutkivka.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north of Bakhmut and to the west, in Chasiv Yar, but there were no confirmed gains or loss of terrain. However, all the various bloggers are now in agreement that Russian forces have taken control of the ceramics factory in Chasiv Yar, which was always going to be the most difficult part of taking the town.

Russian forces made small gains in and around Toretsk and there appears to be only a small slice of the town of Krymske (just north of Torretsk) that remains in Ukrainian hands. Reporting is conflicting on the mine waste hills on the north edge of Toretsk but the Russian line now leads up to the very base of the hills. South of Toretsk, Russian forces appear to have straightened their lines from Shcherbynivka to Novobahmutivka, placing the western edges of the towns of Nelivpivka, Niu York and Yurivka more than a mile and a half behind the front line. Presumably the Russians will now start pushing into that “empty" corner, seizing the terrain south of a line from Shcherbynivka to Pokrovsk.

Donetsk City

Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reporting reflects fighting continues along much of the Pokrovsk salient, and further suggests incremental Russian gains to the south, south-west, and west, as well as along the northern edge of the salient. 

East of Pokrovsk Russian forces north of Vozdvyzhenka continue to expand their control of the T0504 roadway.

Russian forces continue to try to push down the Vovcha river to the west, though there appears to be some discrepancy as to how far they have reached, whether they have reached and taken Udachen and pushed into Novoaleksandrivka, or are still just east of these towns. Due west of Pokrovsk about 4 miles the UGS continues to report that Russian forces remain within a half mile of the M-30 roadway and the parallel rail line.

In the area immediately west of Kurakhove, and the pocket between the Sukhi Yaly River and Kurakhove, there was little change. Russian forces are still trying to take control of Ulakly and Yantarne, at opposite corners of the pocket, and Russian forces appear to have moved into Yantarne, but that hasn't been confirmed. West and north-west of Kurakhove, Russian forces continue to slowly grind forward 

Reporting reflects increased Russian activity in and around Velyka Novosilke. A Ukrainian Army spokesman reports that the town is not yet fully encircled… But looking at the other reporting, that  assessment could change within the hour, and various reports suggest that the Ukrainian position has been reduced to some isolated pockets in the town, to include a larger, fully encircled pocket of troops in the south. The northwest corner also appears to be held by Ukrainian forces. However, Russian forces were trying to push north along the west bank of the small river that runs through the town (the Mokhri Yaly River, that runs roughly south to north)  to block any escape, but it currently appears that there is about a mile-and-a-half of river front that the Russians do not yet control - through this is open terrain and it is all within easy range of Russian artillery.

The Russian army claimed it had blocked and further entry into or exit from the city as of this afternoon.

Southern Ukraine 

Reconnaissance probes and artillery and drone strikes continue across southern Ukraine and along the lower Dnepr Rive, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Air Operations 

On the night of 23-24 January Ukrainian forces launched 121 x drones into Russian air space, and fires were reported at two oil dumps..

Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes into 8 different oblasts but there was no breaks down of numbers and types yet. In theKyiv oblasts 8 different detonations were reported.

Politics

After a series of statements by President Trump conferring the need to end the war, Kremlin spokesman Petrov commented that:

"Putin is ready. We are waiting for signals.”

President Trump is in talks with Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil, reflecting the 2019 RAND study that identified oil (and its prime place in theRussian economy) as the source of greatest leverage in any disagreement with Russia.

Belgium’s Prime Minister de Croo commented at Davos the Russia’s economy could sustain the war for at least another year

Meanwhile NATO Secretary General Rutte told the glitterati at Davos that Ukraine would eventually join NATO.

Ambassador Grenell responded that other NATO members would need to increase define spending before any thought was given to Ukraine going NATO:

“You’re going to run into a big buzzsaw in America if we have the NATO secretary-general talking about adding Ukraine to NATO.”

Rutte called for the US to continue to support Ukraine after President Trump called on NATO members to do more for Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan23 Jan24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 79.26 78.59

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 75.64 74.75

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.95 3.36

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.56 5.45

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 99.75 98.29

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.97 41.89

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 72.65 72.65

ESPO 65 77 78.19 80.76 80.09

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 74.25 74.13

Thoughts

Perhaps proving, Shakespeare was right, Putin protests too much, claiming that oil prices won’t affect the war, which one might take to mean that oil prices very definitely will affect the war.

Reuters reported that Russia is becoming “increasingly concerned” about economic stability and perceptions of economic stability, and that the “elites” are looking for a negotiated end to the war.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov commented that “Putin has never refused dialogue…Putin is ready. We are waiting for signals. Everyone is ready.”

What exactly are the real numbers - casualties, GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, etc. - in both Ukraine and in Russia - are a mystery. No one is telling the truth. But it is a reasonable bet that it’s worse, and possibly substantially worse, than anyone is saying.

There is also something to be said about watching the propaganda; the same sort of thing repeats itself, coming from many capitals: When things get bad, they report that the enemy has it worse (usually without giving their own numbers). 

Thus, the constant reporting on extreme Russian casualties would be the propaganda you would expect from Kyiv if Ukrainian casualties are very high - which anecdotally they are.

Consistent Russian reports of real GDP growth higher than the US or the EU is what you expect if their economy is in trouble, etc.

All of which suggests a lot of strain - social and economic. How much? Hard to say. And how much do the two leaders - Zelenskyy and Putin - think they can endure? In any case, the arrival on the scene of President Trump represents an opportunity for a “Deus ex Machina” ending to the war for both sides.

v/r pete