January 31st, 2025 

Ground Ops - Russian gains around Pokrovsk

- Russian Gains in Chasiv Yar

- Russian Gains in the mouth of the Dnepr

Politics - US plan leaked?

- Former Press secretary calls for ceasefire

Weather

Temperatures remain will drop below freezing by Sunday night and are expected to remain below freezing all next week, which should improve mobility. Clouds remain however, which degrades reconnaissance operations.

Kharkiv

43 and cloudy. Rain on Saturday, cloudy all next week. Daily lows in the 30s through Sunday, then back below freezing. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

44 and cloudy. Mostly cloudy for the next week; rain showers Saturday night, rain to snow mix Monday. daily lows in the 30s into Monday, then back below freezing all next week. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

43 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy for the next week. Temperatures in the mid to low 30s through Sunday night; by Monday back into the 20s and remaining below freezing through next week. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian forces continue to gain ground near Zhuravka (just inside the Ukrainian border, just west of the salient) as part of an effort to flank Ukrainian forces holding the western edge of the salient.

Elsewhere, fighting was reported along much of the perimeter but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

North of Kharkiv

Ukrainian forces made small gains inside Vovchansk, north-east of Kharkiv.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues north of Kupyansk. Gains remain unconfirmed but some reporting suggests Russian forces made some gains both north-west of Dvorichna and north of Dvorichna.

Fighting continues east and north-east of Borova, but there does not appear to be any change in the front lines.

West of Terny the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports multiple engagements and Russian forces, based on UGS reporting, appear to have pushed another mile west from Terny (now about 4 miles west) but this has not been independently confirmed. Fighting was also reported in the Serebrianske forest.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Russian forces continue to push south-west through the center of Chasiv Yar and appear to have taken most of Chasiv Yar proper and are now approaching Shevchenko - the western half of Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control the west side of Chasiv Yar, northern and central Chasiv Yar, and much of eastern Chasiv Yar, leaving the Shevchenko area and neighboring villages of Stupochky and Predtechyne in Ukrainian control.

Further south, Russian forces continue to clear pockets in the northern Toretsk and Krymske area. Russian forces have now pushed through Krymske and are pushing into the residential area immediately south of Dachne. At the same time it appears that Russian forces now control 1 of the 3 slag and waste hills on the north edge of Toretsk.

Donetsk City

Fighting continues west, south and east of Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces made marginal gains south-west of Pokrovsk to the west of Novoandriivka, but Russian forces continue to hold the town. Elsewhere, Russian forces continue to make small gains, slowly moving north from positions west of Pokrovsk, and moving north and north-west from positions east of Pokrovsk. Russian forces continue to push both east and west along the T0504 Roadway, north-west of Vozdvyzhenka.

Finally, pressure mounts on the small city of Myrnohrad, just east of Pokrovsk and the residents have now been ordered to evacuate. The city held 50,000 residents prior to the war, but many have already evacuated and fewer than 20,000 remained into the city by last summer, and the current population is less than 3,000. The city has no electric power.

Russian forces continue to advance south, and west of Kurakhove.

South of Kurakhove Russian forces continue to press westward, slowly collapsing the box south-west of Kurakhove and pushing Ukrainian forces westward. At the same time Russian forces appear to have pushed through the eastern end of the town of Andriivka (about 8 miles west of Kurakhove) and have reached the Northern bank of the Vovcha River. Meanwhile, Russian forces to the south continue to try to take Ulakly (south of Andriivka, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold their positions.

North and west of Andriivka Russian forces have straightened their lines and control all the terrain east of a line from Andriivka north to Novoandriivka, and from there, north to the Solona River in the area of Novooleksandrivka.

Of note, both sides continue to reports heavy fog and its degradation of drone operations.

Russian forces continue to push north and north-west from the Velyka Novosilke (VN) area and now appear to control all of the west bank of the Mokri Yaly river and are pushing into Novoocheretuvate  (immediately north of Novyi Komar). 

Southern Ukraine

Probes and artillery strikes continue. Imagery confirmed Russian forces had taken control of Velykyi Sokolin island at the mouth of the Dnepr River on Wednesday.

There are reports of Russian forces pushing into the center of Kamyanske (on the Dnepr) but this has not been confirmed.

Air Operations 

On the night of 30 - 31 January Russian forces launched an unreported number of Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 59 drones.

On the night of 29 January Russia forces launched 81 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian airspace. The UAF claimed it shot down 37 drones but gave no number for drones defeated by EW (“lost”). Various damages were reported in Sumy City and Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Poltava oblasts.

Air strikes with smart glide bombs were reported at multiple sites, to include Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk; heavy damage was noted in Pokrovsk.

Politics

Newsweek reports that the Ukrainian news outlet Strana obtained a copy of the Trump administration plan to end the war, and has published it.

President Zelenskyy’s office has denied that it is an authentic plan.

Nevertheless, the plan contains what most have postulated must be in any plan: 

- Ceasefire (by Easter)

- Ukrainian troops withdrawing from Kursk Oblast

- Once withdrawal complete, beginning of peace talks, goal - for a rough plan by May 9th

- End to Martial Law and Mobilization in Ukraine 

- Ukraine can’t join NATO, but can join EU by 2030

- Ukraine cedes occupied territory to Russia

- EU leads Ukraine reconstruction 

- Ukraine continues to receive military aid from US

The key element is the ceasefire. Then the talks begin. But, as with Korea - a ceasefire can last a long time.

Ukraine’s Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) opened criminal proceedings after the publication of alleged statements by LTGEN Budanov, specifically, a statement Budanov made in a closed meeting in which he said that the survival of Ukrainian would be threatened if serious negotiations did not begin by the summer of 2025.

The Ministry of Defense denies he made the statement.

President Zelenskyy’s former press secretary, Yuliya Mendel, noted in Time Magazine that Ukraine should agree to a ceasefire, noting that 7.5 million Ukrainians have left the country, an additional 440,000 in 2024.

“Even an imperfect ceasefire can give Ukraine the opportunity to strengthen its defenses, which was impossible to do under constant shelling…I call on our allies, our leaders and, above all, my compatriots: think about the value of the ceasefire. Let us accept this difficult path not as a capitulation, but as a necessary step towards securing the future of Ukraine…. naivety today lies not in seeking respite, but in believing that an endless war of attrition can lead to victory."

Meanwhile, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution calling for “peace through strength” and stating that negotiations can only be conducted from a position of “Ukrainian strength."

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Sep9 Dec9 Jan8 Jan29 Jan31

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 71.74 72.63 76.69 77.03 76.86

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 68.37 68.85 73.94 73.33 72.83

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.20 3.17 3.66 3.40 3.04

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.67 5.59 5.37 5.51 5.61

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 90.75 100.84 105.18 98.57 98.62

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.55 42.33 41.90 41.68

Urals 56.56    67.61 78.83 66.19 71.76 70.06 70.40

ESPO 65 77 78.19 78.53 78.36

Sokol 66.23 65.32 72.79 73.19 72.81

Thoughts

Clearly, something is brewing. Whether in fact the plan that appeared in the newspapers was the real one, and was leaked to block it from moving forward, or it was fake, but leaked to complicate any peace talks, it’s clear that there is a great deal of stress in the system.

An additional example of stress:

The British newspaper “TheGuardian” reports that the Ukrainian desertion problem continues to worsen, and Forbes reports that a second Ukrainian brigade is suffering large number of desertion as it heads to the front line.

The brigade, the 157th, is said to have insufficient training, and comes on the heels of the 155th suffering 1700 desertions in 9 months, out of a total of 5,500 soldiers.

The Ukrainian army is attempting to stand up eight brigades: 151st, 153rd, 154th, 155th, 156th, 157th, 158th and 159th Mechanized Brigades. The brigades are all big - 5,000 or more soldiers - and all are said to suffer from insufficient training and inexperienced leadership, as well as insufficient equipment. Now the army is trying to slow down the process of moving these unit forward and extending the training periods.

Add all this together, on top of the continual grind of the Russian army and what do you get?

The part that should be disturbing to the Ukrainian General Staff is the concern that the army can hold together long enough. What is clear is that without a great deal of outside support, the Ukrainian army will not stop the Russian grind. To stop the Russian army the Ukrainian army needs time to train new units, something that they simply do not have, as demonstrated by desertion rates of the 155th and 157th brigades.

Without that extra time, plus all sorts of extra assets, Ukraine faces a real possibility of a collapse of the army in a given sector and a tremendous setback on the battlefield. The idea of regaining currently occupied lands is smoke and mirrors without some sort of massive change in support from the US and Europe, which simply doesn’t seem possible. Sustained support yes, a substantial increase in support - not likely.

Zelenskyy’s former press secretary has said what everyone else is thinking: time for a ceasefire.

v/r pete