September 30th, 2025

Politics - European Leadership to talk about air defense over western Ukraine 

- Putin signs decree for conscripts

- Arrest made in connection with Nord Stream pipeline

Combat Ops - Russian gains near Siversk, west of Toretsk, in the south

- Air strikes: power outage, civilian casualties 

Weather

Kharkiv

53 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain Thursday, and Friday morning, and again on Sunday. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

54 and cloudy, gusting to 30. Cloudy all week, rain possible Thursday and again on the weekend. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

53 and cloudy, gusting over 30. Cloudy all week, rain possible Wednesday night and Thursday, more rain next weekend. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

The Telegraph is reporting that European leaders will meet in Denmark at the end of this week to discuss setting up a European (not clear if this is NATO or EU or ad hoc) air defense net over western Ukraine. The rough boundary would be front eh mouth of the Dnepr River northward to just east of the city of Kiev. East of that line would be the Ukrainian Air Force area of responsibility (AOR), west would be the European AOR.

President Putin signed out the decree for the fall (semi annual) conscription cycle (begins tomorrow (October 1st)), with a target of 135,000 conscripts between now and December 31st. Conscripts have not served in the war directly. After 12 months, however, conscripts enter a reserve status and can then be called up for service into the war. 

This number (135,000) is consistent with the last 7 conscription cycles, which have averaged just over 135,000, with eh low being 120,000 and the high 150,000.

A man identified as “Volodymyr Z” has been detailed by Polish authorities in regard to the strike on the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022. The man, a Ukrainian diver, is being held in anticipation of extradition to Germany.

In 2023 a German investigation concluded that the explosion was the result of a Ukrainian or pro-Ukrainian group. 

The man’s lawyer is contesting the extradition.

This is the seconds man who has been arrested in regard to the sabotage of the pipeline. In August “Serhii K” was arrested in Italy, and the courts ordered his extradition to Germany earlier in September. His extradition is also being challenged.

Ground Operations 

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues along the edge of the would-be Russian buffer zone north of Sumy city, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

Fighting continues north of Kharkiv, along the border, but there were no confirmed changes in the front line.

East of Kharkiv, along the border, north of the Oskil River, imagery confirmed Russian gains in the mostly open terrain north of the small town of Ambarne. How much terrain the Russians really control isn’t clear, with some sources suggesting they are just north-west of Ambarne, while others suggest they have pushed within a mile of Khatnje (the next town to the west) and that Russian forces now control the terrain to the north, east and south of Ambarne.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

There were no confirmed changes in the front lines around Kupyansk, but some pro-Ukrainian sources are suggesting Russian forces have reached the P07 Roadway just south-west of Kupyansk. Fighting and probes continue inside the city.

Further south, at the southern end of the Zherebets River, imagery confirmed that both Russian and Ukrainian forces had made small gains in and around Yampil, once again a sort of Yin - Yang maneuvering in Yampil and the nearby Serebrianske forest.

To the west, imagery confirmed Russian gains in Shandryholove, along the Nitrius River.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

North-east of Bakhmut, Russian forces pushed north-west along the line from Vyimka to Siversk and imagery confirms Russian forces are now about 2.5 miles south-east of Siversk proper. The terrain between their current position and Siversk is open farmland, with a reservoir about a mile up the rail line, the north end of the reservoir about a mile outside of Siversk.

Other reporting suggests Russian forces are now at most 1.5 miles due east of the center of Siversk.

Fighting continues west of Chasiv Yar but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

In the broad area between Pokrovsk and Toretsk, imagery confirmed Russian gains north of Rusyn Yar, as Russian forces continue to push north of the T0504 roadway. Further west, around the Russian salient north-east of Pokrovsk, fighting continues at the base of the salient with no gains by either side, either due east of Bilytske or just south of Shakhove. Ukrainian reporting suggests Ukrainian gains just north-east of Bilytske, but this has not been confirmed.

Fighting continued at multiple sites immediately east and north-east of Pokrovsk but there were no confirmed changes in the line.

South-west of Pokrovsk, Russian forces had confirmed gains along the Donetsk - Dnipropetrovsk oblast border.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

South of the Vovcha River, Russian forces continue to press westward and imagery confirmed that, as of Sunday, Russian forces had pushed into the center of the village of Verbove. Other reporting suggests that Russian forces have pushed through Verbove and are within 1 mile of the next town to the west Vyshneve.

Along the Dnepr River, Russian forces were active raiding across the river near the Antonovskiy bridge (just up river from Kherson).

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 29th-September 30th, Russian forces launched 65 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 46 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and  oblasts. Power was out in parts of Chernihiv.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 13 injured..

A Ukrainian missile strike (using Neptune missiles) struck the Elektrodetal plant in Karachev (a city in Bryansk oblast, about 75 miles east of Belarus, and 75 miles north-east of the Ukrainian border) on the 29th, damaging the facilities boilers and an assembly facility and the plant has reportedly been forced to suspend operations.

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck an oil depot in Crimea on the 29th, in the Feodosia area, and reportedly left the site on fire. The strike, and damage, has not been independently confirmed.

During the night of September 28th-September 29th, Russian forces launched 32 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 23 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 13 injured, and another 40 wounded across the country.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep29 Sep30

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 68.19 67.13

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 63.70 62.54

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 3.18 3.31

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.19 5.17

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 82.81 82.43

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.29 41.26

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 65.89 63.04

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 71.82 68.89

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 65.65 63.64

Thoughts

NATO certainly has the technical and tactical ability to set up an air defense grid over western Ukraine; this has been done before (over the Balkans, over southern and northern Iraq, etc.) 

Nor will Rules of Engagement (ROE) be a major issue in the simple sense, as all the incoming targets in western Ukraine will be drones or missiles; there will be no issue of shooting at manned aircraft.

But it does, of course, raise several issues.

First, there is the basic question of what assets will be used? Whose aircraft and aircrew, and how long will it be sustained? Which surface-to-air and air-to-air weapons inventories are going to be further depleted? Basing, rotations, etc., can all be worked out, but in the end, this is a real expense and someone will need to pay: in operating budget, ordnance, and wear and tear on the aircraft and all the supporting infrastructure. And it imposes an opportunity cost on NATO nations.

But the second issue is simply whether this represents NATO nations becoming active combatants with Ukraine, against Russia. Russia right now is at war with Ukraine, but not with NATO. Would Russia interpret this as NATO deciding to go to war with Russia?

v/r pete  

 September 29th, 2025

Politics - Hungary’s PM: "Ukraine is not sovereign" 

- Outflow of Ukrainian young men

Combat Ops - Missile and drone strikes continue

- Hard fighting, Marginal gains on the ground

Weather

Kharkiv

60 and mostly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy all week, rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. Daily lows in the 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Melitopol

58 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain possible Wednesday night. Daily lows around 50, daily highs in the 60s.  Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

46 and rain, gusting over 25. Cloudy all week, rain possible Wednesday night, more rain next weekend. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds easterly, 10-15kts.

Politics 

Hungary’s PM Orban, in commenting on an incident in which Hungarian drones crossed into Ukrainian airspace, touched off a small diplomatic tempest:

"Whether two, three, or four Hungarian drones crossed the border or not is not the issue. Let's say they flew a few meters into the country, so what? Ukraine is not an independent, sovereign country; we are the ones keeping it funded, so it should not behave as if it were sovereign.”

"If the West decides not to give a single forint tomorrow, Ukraine can shut down.”

Per Polish Border Guard reports, between August 28 and September 19, 2025 (following the Ukrainian government’s relaxing of the rules) 40,000 Ukrainian males, aged 18 - 22, crossed the border into Poland, and 13,000 returned to Ukraine, a net outflow of 27,000 in 3 weeks.

Per the Institute for Demography, there are some 700,000 Ukrainian males, aged 18-22, currently living in Ukraine, of which roughly 400,000 are students.

Ground Operations

SUMY AND KHARKIV OBLASTS

Fighting continues north of Sumy city with only small changes; imagery confirming that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in the open terrain east of Andriivka (south of Oleksiivka), due north of Sumy city.

Fighting continued north of Kharkiv along the border, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

East of Kharkiv along the border (just north of the Oskil River) the Russian footprint is very slowly expanding, and Russian recon elements have probed into Odradne - but the Russian line remains north and east of that town. Odradne is a small farming village with fewer than 200 residents and mainly consist of houses on two roughly parallel streets running east-west, between well developed farm land.

NORTH OF THE DONETS RIVER

Fighting continues in and around Kupyansk and Russian forces are very slowly pushing south, and probes are pushing further into the city. The two pincers - Russian forces pushing south from the north end of the city, and Russian forces pushing east from Moskovka - are now perhaps a half mile apart, with a pocket between them perhaps 8 or 9 city blocks in size. However, while under direct fire from Russian forces, the P07 roadway - the primary Ground Line of Communications (GLCO), that runs west out of Kupyansk appears to remain under Ukrainian control.

Further south, Russian forces appear to have stopped the Ukrainian thrust towards Novovodiane (east of Borova) and retaken perhaps half of the small salient.

Further south, imagery confirmed Russian gains south of Zarichne, and Russian sources are reporting Russian control of Shandryholove, which appears credible, though this has not been confirmed. Imagery on Friday confirmed that Russian forces had pushed into Yampil as well, on the west bank of the Zherebets River, just north of the Donets River; control of the town is still being contested.

BAKHMUT - TORETSK - POKROVSK

There were no confirmed changes north or north-east of Bakhmut, but Russian forces do continue to probe into the terrain north and north-west of Siversk, with some probes having apparently crossed the T0513 roadway, the main GLOC into Siversk.

West of Chasiv Yar, Russian forces claim to have taken the town of Maiske (about 3 miles north-west of Chasiv Yar).

West of Toretsk (in the general area east and north-east of the eastern end of the Kleban Byk Reservoir) there appears to be hard fighting going on as Ukrainian forces dig in and try to hold; there is an element - perhaps a battalion’s worth of troops, not as big as a brigade - still south of the reservoir and my guess is that they are trying to keep a ground “exit” from the area if they are forced to withdraw. At the same time, the Russians want to close it off, and move to the north side of the reservoir. North of the reservoir there are no hardened Ukrainian positions south of the T0504 roadway except what Ukrainian engineers have built in the last several weeks.

North-east of Pokrovsk imagery confirmed Russian forces moved into Dorozhnie, on the north side of the narrow Ukraine salient east of Bilytske. Whether the Russian fully control the town isn't clear.

Fighting continues east of Bilytske and south-west of Shakhove (the opposite sides of bottom of the Russian salient), with both sides claiming some gains. But it appears that right now the gains are marginal at best. As with most of the rest of the front, it would appear that the fight will go to whichever side commits the most troops. Fighting was reported in multiple towns and villages around Pokrovsk but there appears to have been few changes over the past 5 days.

Of note, Russian forces continue to probe into Pokrovsk but it appears that they have pulled back to the south edge of the city and currently only control the south-west edge of the city.

Further to the south-west, north of the Vovcha River, imagery confirms that Russian forces made some gains in the area around Filiia.

SOUTHERN UKRAINE

Fighting continues on the north - south line south of the Vovcha river but reporting is contradictory, with some suggesting no changes, others suggesting Russian forces in the Berezove area have pushed westward and are either in or about to enter Verbove,  and some reports suggest Russian forces have pushed through the town and are within a mile of the next town to the west, Vyshneve, Verbove was a town of 1200 before the war, on the south bank of the Verbove river. The terrain is open farmland and the river is marked by a series of reservoirs as well, forming a workable defense line running east-west (blocking movement from north to south). The river flows westward and passes through the town of Orikhiv.

Air and Maritime Operations

During the night of September 28th-September 29th, Russian forces launched 32 x  Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 23 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Donetsk, Kherson, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 3 Ukrainian towns.

Preliminary reports confirm at least 4 killed in Kyiv, and 13 injured, and another 40 wounded across the country.

Ukrainian missiles struck power infrastructure targets in Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts last night and this morning; damage reports pending.

During the night of September 27th-September 28th, Russian forces launched 2 x Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 38 x Kh-101 cruise missiles, 2 x Banderol cruise missiles, 8 x Kalibr cruise missiles, and 593 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, both Banderols, 35 Kh-101s, all 8 Kalibr  cruise missiles and 566 drones.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

There were reports of at least 4 civilian killed and 82 wounded. Damage was reported to power infrastructure in Kyiv and a small section of the city was left without power or working gas lines.

During the night of September 26th-September 27th, Russian forces launched 115 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 97 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage to energy infrastructure was reported in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Odessa, Sumy, and Vinnytsia oblasts.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

During the night of September 25th-September 26th, Russian forces launched 154 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space, targeting the power infrastructure. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 128 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv and Odessa oblasts.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

During the night of September 24th-September 25th, Russian forces launched 176 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 150 Shahed drones. 

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Sumy, and Vinnytsia oblasts.

There were no reports of civilian casualties; 30,000 homes were without power in Chernihiv.

During the night of September 23rd-September 24th, Russian forces launched 4 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 152 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down or defeated by EW, 126 Shahed drones. 

Two Russian Iskander ballistic missiles struck a Ukrainian army training facility, a Russian ballistic missile struct Dnipro city this afternoon, and another ballistic missile struck Chernihiv. It was noted that there wrecked casualties but the numbers have not been released.

Initial damage from missile and drone strikes was reported in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

RuAF tacair struck at least 5 Ukrainian towns.

There were no reports of civilian casualties.

Economic Reporting

Feb22   Jun9 July8 Aug8 Sep9 Sep24 Sep29

Brent      94.71       66.80 70.44 66.90 67.03 68.44 68.19

WTI     92.10    64.89 68.65 64.29 63.26 64.20 63.70

NG       3.97         3.69 3.35 3.06 3.12 2.84 3.18

Wheat     8.52          5.49 5.49 5.18 5.22 5.21 5.19

Ruble     85          79.27 78.47 79.74 84.03 83.78 82.81

Hryvnia 28.6 41.55 41.80 41.39 41.23 41.39 41.29

Urals 91.66 60.84 64.07 63.17 60.12 62.51 65.89

ESPO 94.52 63.97 71.58 68.63 68.32 70.03 71.82

Sokol 99.31 61.51 64.38 62.57 62.97 64.08 65.65

Thoughts

Just a wild thought, but might the meeting tomorrow in Quantico lead to a restating of the Monroe Doctrine? And if so, how would that affect NATO? Just something to chew on.

As for the fighting, it isn’t clear what level of damage these strikes are having on Russia’s oil industry or Ukraine’s power grid. Russian refineries are knocked off line, but come back within a day or two, but the reporting as to capacity is vague, as with the Ukrainian power grid. 

Russia’s total refining capacity is estimated at 267 million tons per year, and Reuters estimates that total lost production, as of August, could be as high as 8% of total production. As of the end of August some capacity knocked off line had resumed production and it was estimated that total idle capacity was 6.5 million tons (2.4%).

On the ground, the Russian army continues to grind, Ukrainian forces continue to hold, giving ground very slowly. It was projected that Russian forces would be able to take Pokrovsk by the end of the year and that certainly is possible. Again, it’s important to remember that this is a war of attrition, the casualty count (which we don’t really know) is more important than land taken.

That said, I would add one thought: the Russian advance in southern Ukraine, pushing westward toward the Dnepr River and Zaporizhzhia, is progressing faster than was anticipated. It is worth keeping an eye on that advance, as there is a good question as to just how many Ukrainian forces are available to hold that terrain.

v/r pete