October 14th, 2024 Columbus Day (Observed)

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

Air Operations - Strikes continue

- F-16 bags SU-34???

Politics  - Ukrenergo Certification Issue

Weather

Fall weather has arrived, cool and damp - movement will become more difficult, living conditions will become more miserable.

Kharkiv

49 and cloudy. Cloudy to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

55 and light rain. Partly to mostly cloudy all week. Daily lows in the mid 40s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

46 and partly cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy through Wednesday, then clearing for several days. Daily lows in the 30s, daily highs in the upper 40s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

Russian forces continue to grind out small gains into the Ukrainian salient, taking small gains as they come, pushing into the salient from the west, the north-east and south-east.

Over the last 3 or 4 days Russian forces took back Matveevka (a small village about 2.5 miles east of Korenevo) and Olgovka (a mile east of Matveevka). Russian sources now claim that some 19 villages and towns inside the Kursk salient have been taken back by Russian forces. Russian gains were also claimed both south-east and north-east of Subzha.

Further to the west Ukrainian units continue to hold their positions near Novy Put. Reportedly, more Russian units continue to flow into the area of the Kursk salient, and the Russians appear determined to use an advantage in available manpower to collapse the salient.

North of Kharkiv 

There were probes and minor skirmishes but there were no noted or claimed changes to the front lines over the weekend.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along most of the line of contact and Russian sources claimed Russian forces west of Pishchane edged closer to the Oskil River, and some pro-Ukrainian blogs put them at less than 1,000 meters from the river, about a mile north of the Senkove bridge, but this has not been confirmed.

Also, I have to correct myself here, the bridge at Senkove was struck earlier in the war and is currently missing a span. There have been pontoon bridges across the Oskil, but the heavy bridge is down.

Bakhmut

Fighting around Bakhmut continued through he weekend but with no confirmed gains to the north or west. The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported Russian forces active east of Siversk in several locations but there were no changes to the front line.

The UGS also noted fighting just east of Stupochky but again there was no change in the front line.

Further south, Russian forces were confirmed to have pushed deeper into Toretsk by the 12th, and now control perhaps as much s half of that town. Russian forces are also confirmed to have engaged Ukrainian forces near Shcherbynivka, about 2 miles west-south-west of Toretsk, suggesting that Russian forces pushed through the small town of Leonidivka (south-west of Toretsk) and are attempting to circle Toretsk and cut off the lines of communication from the west. 

Donetsk City

Fighting continues east and south-east of Pokrovsk, and both sides appear to have made some gains over the weekend.

Ukrainian forces made confirmed gains on the north edge of Selydove on the 13th even as Russian forces had confirmed gains east and south of Selydove, and also along much the rest of the perimeter of the Pokrovsk salient. 

Russian forces have taken Tsukuryne (just south of Selydove) and the front line runs east from there past Hirnyk and Zhelanne Druhe (both in Russian hands) and then arcs south to Hostre and Ostrivske (on the east end of the Vovcha reservoir. The pocket or possible Ukrainian salient that this area represented is now estimated to be empty of Ukrainian troops who probably withdrew by the end of last week.

Further to the south-west, Russian forces appear to have pushed further north-west from Vodyane, as well as further west in the vicinity of Velyka Novosilke (15 miles west of Vuhledar). There are additional reports that Russian forces pushed north-west from area of Pryyutne, punched through the Ukrainian line and took the farm named  Levadne, which was built up as a Ukrainian strong point along the defensive perimeter.

Southern Ukraine

Fighting continues around Kamyanske and further south along the Dnepr but enter were no confirmed gains or losses.

Air Operations

This morning Odessa’s port facility was struck by two ballistic missiles, damaging 2 grain ships and a grain warehouse. 1 civilian was killed and 8 wounded.

Of curious note, the night of October 13-14 was the first night in 48 days that a Shahed drones was not launched into Ukrainian air space.

On the night of the 12th (12-13 October) Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles, 2 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 68 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 31 drones and that 36 “became lost” (were defeated by EW). The 2 ballistic missiles and the 2 cruise missiles hit targets in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and Poltava and Odessa oblasts respectively.

President Zelenskyy’s office reported that Russia launched 900 x glide bombs, 40 x missiles and 400 x Shahed drones into Ukraine last week.

On the night of the 11th and12th Russian forces fired a missile (not further identified) and 28 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down or defeated 24 drones. 

The former UAF spokesman, Col. Ihnat, reported on the October 10 that Russian forces damaged a Patriot SAM system in Dnipropetrovsk during a ballistic missile strike on October 9, stating that that Patriot shot down one Iskander but was struck by the second. 

There is a report that a Ukrainian F-16 shot won a Russian SU-24 on the 12th. However, there is no clear implying data and the UAF and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense will not comment.

Politics and Diplomacy

Ukrenergo, the Ukrainian National Power Company, which manages the Ukrainian electric power grid, has been warned that because it is having difficulty in “operating in compliance” with European standards, it may lose its certification and be unable to import electricity form Europe.

The major issue appears to be “undue pressure” placed on Ukrenergo’s supervisory board by the Ukrainian Minister of Energy, preventing the board from acting independently.

Ukrenergo has until 09 December to resolve the issue.

Norway will set aside 967 million kroner (about $89 million) to build weapons and ammunition for Ukraine.

Belgium, Denmark, Germany and Norway, will provide 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) in weapons to Ukraine, to include: IRIS-T and Skynex air defense systems, Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, as well as artillery, armored vehicles, combat drones, radars, and ammunition.

The Czech Republic will transfer 500,000 x  155MM rounds by the end of 2024.

France will transfer between 12 - 20 x Dassault Mirage 2000-F5 fighter jets to Ukraine in early 2025.

EU Foreign Policy director Josep Borrell announced that EU member nations will be given a choice to contribute or not to the European Peace Facility, allowing Hungary to abstain from contributing. To date some 11 billion Euros ($12 billion) has been set aside for Ukraine.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct11 Oct14

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 79.43 77.77

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 75.96 74.32

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.66 2.53

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 6.04 5.99

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.11 95.66

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.17 41.20

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 70.29 73.40

ESPO       65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 71.40 71.40

Thoughts 

Napoleon is noted for having said that “In war, the moral [his usage connotes morale] is to the physical as three to one.”

The message cuts both ways: an army that has very high morale and thinks it can conquer the world is a dangerous army, no matter how well or poorly equipped. But, at the same time, an army that has low morale, now matter its size or how well equipped, can suddenly collapse no matter the relative combat powers of its enemy.

It is too easy to get lost in the weeds of this war and worry about weapons or tactics or who lost the most troops today. And arguing whether a particular attack represents part of an organized, integrated master plan of attack misses the point: the Russian strategy since at least fall of 2022 has been fighting a war of attrition and the Ukrainians essentially accepted that style of war. 

So, the Russians have sought to grind down the Ukrainian army, inflict as many casualties as possible, and push forward as part of the process of inflicting casualties, This is a style of war Russian armies have fought since the middle of WWII and in part  how they fought in WWI; it is ponderous but a relatively low risk style of fighting.

Meanwhile, there is the continuing question, as the Russian army seems to grind forward: Is morale weakening in either army? Difficult, or really, impossible to say. Anecdotal reports from Ukraine suggest folks are not enlisting. By way of example, fewer than 300 (some say fewer than 200) Ukrainian men volunteered for the Ukrainian Poland Legion in the past several months - out of more than 800,000 eligible men in Europe. That is not a sign of high morale.

There are multiple reports of Ukrainian men trying to get across the border every day, sneaking into Romania or Poland or theater neighbors (Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia), but getting hard numbers is difficult. The BBC reported that 21,000 were caught in the first 18 months of the war. And that some 19,000 made it across. That is how many the other governments know of. How many more made it? Has that rate continued?

Again, these are anecdotal. What is unknown at this distance is whether anecdotes represent 5% of the population on one end of the spectrum, or in fact 60% in the middle of the spectrum.

The government in Kyiv continues to pass the story of high morale, as expected. At the same, there is an ongoing effort to control what the press report, and Ukraine Pravda recently made public a letter they sent to the government demanding freedom of the press and accusing the government of applying pressure to report only what the government wants.

The fact is that long wars grind down armies, and a people. The more quickly an army is thrown together the more difficult it is to install the necessary level of training and true team building that will generate unit cohesion and morale.

Recent reports note conscription raids on restaurants and bars, officers checking men’s papers and detaining those not in compliance.

And another report surfaced today in Der Spiegel that Ukrainian government authorities are, in fact, willing to concede some land if it would mean ending the war. Other authorities immediately denied the report. But the general consensus is that few Ukrainians, even in government, still believe a total victory over Russia is possible.

One official told Der Spiegel:

“Whether it’s Trump or Harris, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw. The prognosis is poor. People don’t really want to fight anymore. The injustices of war could tear society apart.”

v/r pete