October 24th, 2024                  Treaty of Westphalia 1648

Overall  

Ground Operations - More Russian gains 

Politics  - BRICS Statement - not much for Putin

Peace offers - Zelenskyy makes a bid?

Weather

Kharkiv

56 and partly cloudy, gusting to 20. Saturday will be sunny but otherwise cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows will be near 30, daily highs in the low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

57 and sunny, gusting to 20. Cloudy on Friday then. Week of mostly sunny weather. Daily lows in the 40s (possibly 30s during the weekend), daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Kyiv

48 and cloudy, gusting over 25. Partly cloudy to cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows around 40, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Both sides have had confirmed gains over the last 24 - 48 hours in the terrain south-east and east of Korenevo, but the key datum is that the Russians continue to inch forward east of of Korenevo, closing the gap towards Russian troops pressing on from the east side of the salient. The result is that there are elements of a Ukrainian brigade (how many isn’t clear) north of the Russian troops and hence susceptible to being cut off; the Russian forces pushing eastward are perhaps 2.5 miles from Russian troops pushing in from the east side of the salient.

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues north and north-east of Kharkiv but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continues along much of the line of contact with Russian forces having some confirmed gains east and south-east of Kupaynsk but Russian forces also reporting gains elsewhere along the line but these gains could not be confirmed.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and north-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses.

Russian sources made conflicting claims of gains around Chasiv Yar, the Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) denied all of them, and several major pro-Ukrainian blogs show alternatively that the Russians have made gains in and just south of Chasiv Yar; and that they have not.

Trying to make sense of all this, my guess is that there are a series of see-saw battles around the north and east perimeter of Chasiv Yar, and across the Donets canal, and that bth sides are having difficulty holding onto terrain at the forward edge of lines. That said, it appears that the Russians have made some gains along the T0504 roadway towards the south-west, and probably control that roadway as far as due north of the small town of Stupochky, just south of Chasiv Yar, about a mile west of the Donets canal.

Further south, west of Horlivka, Russian forces continue to attack Toretsk from the east and the south, but there were no confirmed gains in the last 24 hours. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian elements were sighted Shcherbynivka, west of Toretsk; if accurate this would place Russian forces within striking distance of the T0516 roadway that runs north-west out of Toretsk and is the major Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) into the town. Controlling or cutting the GLOC into Toretsk would, of course’s seriously weaken the Ukrainian defense.

Donetsk City

East of Pokrovks Russian control of Hrodivka was confirmed by the Ukrainian army. South-east of Pokrovsk, Russian forces made more small gains in the northeast edge of Selydove, and to the south-east now control all of Imailivka (on the south-east edge  of Selydove). Additional gains were noted further to the south-east, in the vicinity of Himyk, as the Russians press to straighten lines and close up would-be salients.

Russian forces continue to press on Selydove from the north and south and east and it is likely that Ukrainian forces will soon be pressured to withdraw to avoid encirclement. Analysts have noted that Russian efforts to take Selydove, and Ukrainian resistance in Selydove, have slowed the Russian push on Pokrovsk. While this is undoubtedly true in the general sense, Russian artillery has already inflicted substantial damage on Pokrovsk, the city has just a small slice of its citizens remaining inside, and the use of the city as a supply and personnel hub has already been severely impacted. What we also don’t know is the actual losses on both sides. 

Further south, fighting continues around Kurakhove, and Kurakhivka (respectively south and north of the Vovcha reservoir) but there were no confirmed changes in the line. 

Further south, Russian forces continue to press westward from the line north of Vuhledar, and forces pushing north-west from Vodyane are less than 2 miles from Bohoyavlenka.

There were no confirmed changes to the line across Southern Ukraine. Of note, reporting from the southern Ukraine lines counties to be sparse and there is spotty reporting that suggest that  the Russians have concentrated forces just west of Velyka Novosilke, and also south of Orikhiv, that there is some nasty fighting taking place and that the Russians are gaining some ground. But there is nothing to confirm this.

Air Operations

Russian air defense forces shot down 10 x Ukrainian drones and destroyed 4 surface drones west of Crimea  on the 23rd.

During the night of the 22nd - 23rd Russian forces launched 1 x Kh-31P and 81 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The Kh-31 struck a facility in Odessa; the UAF claimed it shot down 57 drones and 17 drones “became lost” (were defeated by EW).

A Russian MI Battalion commander equivalent commented that Russia is testing drone swarm technology in the vicinity of Chasiv war as part of their counter-EW tactics. 

An unconfirmed report notes that 20+ Ukrainian drones struck infrastructure in Ernohodar, the town and general area around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and cut electricity to a dozen towns.

Politics

The BRICS Summit in Kazan, Tatarstan, ((BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) attendees at the conference included Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE) produced a declaration yesterday that stated that all parties should act in accordance with the UN charter; ie, it failed to produce any statement favorable to Russia or Russia’s war in Ukraine. While the statement didn’t condemn the war (it only mentioned Ukraine once), the Russians were hoping for a pro-Russia statement and didn’t get it.

The conference attendees also called for mediating the war in Ukraine and an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

North Korea: The latest from the Pentagon on North Korean forces heading into Russia is that 2 x 6,000 man “Brigades” were training inside Russia in the Vladivostok area (normal brigades are usually 3,000 strong, though US Brigade combat teams - a normal brigade augmented with a complete range of additional elements - from artillery and armor to medical and intelligence, etc. -  can be more than 6,000 strong. 

Then a report from Ukrainian Defense Intelligence that noted that North Korea troops were seen in Kursk today. Ukrainian Intel also noted that the force was 500 officer and 11,500 troops, and includes 3 x generals.

During the BRICS conference Putin was asked about the North Korea troops, specifically: "What are they doing here? Isn't this a serious escalation of the conflict?"

Putin responded that "it was not Russia's actions that led to the escalation.” He then mentioned the Duma had ratified the "comprehensive strategic partnership" with the DPRK, which provides “mutual defense.” 

Politico reported today that there are currently 7 nations in NATO that oppose offering NATO membership to Ukraine: Belgium, Germany, Hungary Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and the US. NATO Membership requires unanimous consent among all members.

Peace Proposal - First Bid?

President Zelenskyy made an interesting statement yesterday: Ukraine would be willing to enter into talks if Russia would end strikes on energy infrastructure and shipping.

“When it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war. In other words, we do not attack their energy infrastructures; they don’t attack ours.”

“Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so.”

There has been no response from Moscow yet.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct23 Oct24

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 75.57 75.47

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 71.34 71.32

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.35 2.43

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.76 5.79

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.45 96.83

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.29 41.29

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 68.95 67.79

ESPO 65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 68.61 68.39

Thoughts 

President Zelenskyy went on to comment that there was no suggestion that Ukraine would cede territory and there was no one in his government that was going to cede any terrain.

The one country that has really lived through this sort of thing, Korea, fought a war that lasted 37 months, compared to 31 months for Ukraine (technically, it’s still “on”) and resulted in almost 3 million dead, an order of magnitude more violent than the war in Ukraine, and the South signed an armistice but has not ceded any territory.

Rather, there has been an armistice, which is a fancy word for ceasefire. As it was explained to me many years ago, what an armistice really translates into is: “We’re not going to shoot - today.” 

But Korea has not ceded that territory, and won’t. Still, the shooting ended (mostly).

Ukraine could take the same position. Then, a DMZ would be created, armed to the teeth, Ukrainian forces would be rebuilt, modernized, trained, and they would settle in for some future date when there might be peace. In the meantime, there would be a ceasefire.

v/r pete