October 10th, 2024 Battle of Tours, 732 

Overall  

Ground Operations - Russian gains south-east of Pokrovsk

- Tsukuryne did fall, Selydove threatened

Politics - No Ceasefire Proposal

- NATO Exercise Steadfast Noon

Weather

Note the rainfall across most of eastern Ukraine in the coming days; the autumn rainy weather has arrived, colder and wet, and will have the obvious impact on maneuver.

Kharkiv

61 and partly cloudy. Sunny to Partly cloudy through Saturday, followed by 4 days of rain. Friday and Saturday lows around 40, highs around 70, Sunday through Wednesday lows in the low 40s, highs around 50. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

65 and cloudy. Partly cloudy tomorrow, cloudy Saturday, rain on Sunday and Monday. Daily lows in the 50s, daily highs on Friday and Saturday around 70, Sunday and Monday low in lower 50s and highs in the high 50s. Winds variable, 5-15kts.

Kyiv

60 and cloudy, gusting to 20. Mostly cloudy tomorrow, followed by 4 days of rain. Tomorrow highs will be in the 60s, lows in the 50s, followed by 5 days where lows will be in the upper 40s and highs will be in the lower 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations

Kursk Salient

There continues to be a good deal of reporting of assaults by both Russian and Ukrainian forces in and around the Kursk salient, but it has also been several days since there have been any confirmed gains or losses by either side. Russian forces have, however, claimed gains both on the east side of the salient, near Novaya Sorochina (about 12 miles north of Subzha) and to the west near Pokrovsky (about 4 miles east-south-east of Snaghost, and there are Russian claims that they now control Pokrovsky. 

North of Kharkiv

Fighting continues in the two small incursions north of Kharkiv. Imagery confirmed that Russian forces have regained control over the Aggregate plant in the industrial center of Vovchansk. More significantly, Ukrainian army commentary is that the Russian trenches are increasingly difficult to clear.

As noted in August, Russian forces brought in engineering units to these two incursions shortly after they moved across the border here, and as they have done since late summer 2023, have taken the lessons they learned and applied them to the new trenches, bunkers and fighting positions. In particular, Russian engineers looked at the strong and weak points of their trenches south of Orikhiv, as demonstrated by the Ukrainian counter-offensive, and applied them in modernizing existing trench systems and building new ones. According to the Ukrainian army officer the trenches are interconnected and exploit the local terrain, and are more difficult to clear.

North of the Donets

Fighting continues the length of the line of contact, and imagery confirmed Russian force moving southward from Makiivka (southwest of Svatove, along the Zherebets River),  Russian forces continue their efforts to take control of the Zherebets, which will be more difficult with the arrival of the rains.

Bakhmut 

North-east of Bakhmut, Russian forces made gains along the  Donets River, near Hryhorivka (west of Bilohorivka, north-east of Siversk). Russian forces also are gained ground north of Verkhnokamyanske (5 miles south of Bilohorivka, and probably control that town now as well.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues north, east and south-east of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces continue to push west toward Stupochky and Bila Hora. Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reports fighting taking place less than a mile east of Bila Hora and Russian air strikes into that town.

Further to the south, Russian forces have pushed into the south side of Toretsk from Niu York and Nelipivka, even as they continue to push into Toretsk from the east. Russian Spetsnaz elements are reportedly operating inside Toretsk ahead of Russian forces.

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to advance south-east of Pokrovsk. UGS reports Ukrainian forces pushed back into Mykolaiva (5 miles due east of Pokrovsk) but at the same time there are Ukrainian reports that suggest Russian elements have crossed the E50 roadway (which runs due south out of Pokrovsk), and are operating west of that road. Further reports suggest Russian forces have pushed westward through Tsukuryne and are now operating west of that town, which places them west of the center of Selydove. If this is correct, they will soon be in position to close the pincer on Selydove, reduce the town with artillery, and press westward through minimal Ukrainian defensive positions. 

Further advances were noted to the south-east and the pocket south of the Pokrovsk salient continues to shrink, and Russian forces on the south side of the pocket continue to push westward from the general area of Hostre, Hoerhivka, and Maksymilyanivka.

North of Vulhedar Russian forces have pushed west from Vodyane and are now within 2 miles of Bohoyavlenka, and other forces are pushing northward from Prechystivka and have moved to within 2 miles of Novoukrainka. Taking these two small towns would take the “box” out of the corner that had been controlled by Vuhledar.

Further to the south-west there is additional reporting that Russian forces have taken Zolota Nyva (about 8 miles east of Velyka Novosilke) and have pressed a further 4 miles further west and are now within several miles of Velyka Novosilke.

Southern Ukraine

Well to the west, Russian forces continue to make gains around Kamyanske (on the eastern tip of what was the great Dnepr reservoir) and there are unconfirmed reports that Russian troops have entered the the south side of that town.

Russian forces remain active along the lower Dnepr but there were no confirmed changes to the front line.

Air operations

Last night Russian forces launched 2 x  Iskander ballistic missiles, 1 x Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles, 2 x Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, 3 x S-300 ballistic missiles, and 62 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 41 drones, and 14 others were defeated by electronic warfare (“disappeared”).

The attack was directed against power grid and related infrastructure. There was no specific information on damage to infrastructure.

On the 8th Russian forces launched 3 x Iskander missiles and 22 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 21 drones and 1 drone returned to Russia air space. Odessa government reports noted a Shahed drone struck an apartment building in Chornomorsk (south of Odessa) and another Shahed struck a building in Odessa.

The final count for the 7th was 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 19 x Shahed drones, with the UAF claiming to have shot down 18 drones and defeating the last with electronic warfare.

There were no specific reports on the targets struck by the Iskander ballistic missiles, but there was a claim that a ship in Odessa was hit by a ballistic missile on the 7th.

The Ukrainian General Staff (UGS) reported that Ukrainian drones struck a Russian ammunition dump on the 9th in Karachev (about 100 miles due north of Sumy). The Russian MinDef claimed it shot down 24 Ukrainian drones on the night of the 8th.

The UGS also announced that Ukrainian forces struck an airfield just east of the Kerch strait, the Khanskaya airfield in the Republic of Adygea, and struck an ammo storage facility.

There was no damage report yet.

Politics 

Both the Russians and Ukrainian governments rejected yesterday’s rumor that there are secret negations ongoing for a ceasefire.

President Zelenskyy: “This is not the topic of our discussions. It’s not right. Russia works a lot with media disinformation so it (such reports) is understandable.” 

Dmitry Litvin, the Ukrainian presidential advisor:

”We have a 'peace formula,' which clarifies Ukraine’s view of just peace. This is the basis for the ongoing talks with our partners on strengthening Ukraine’s position. The 'victory plan' that will be presented to Britain, France, Italy and Germany in a few days is a tool to push the situation towards implementing the 'peace formula.’"

Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko:

"And what is the point of these summits? The first one failed miserably, the second one planned by Zelensky would have been just as empty and worthless. It could lead to nothing positive. It is not about peace, it is not about negotiations, it is not about ending the confrontation… We are absolutely not interested in whether there will be a summit or not. We do not take part in such meetings because we do not see any point in them," she added.

NATO annual exercise Steadfast Noon begins on October 14th (next Monday), the annual nuclear readiness exercise. The exercise is being held in Belgium, the Netherlands, and over the North Sea.

60 aircraft from 13 states, predominantly F-16 and F-35s, and several B-52s will participate. The exercise is focused on Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Turkey, non-nuclear states with nuclear arsenals on their soil. The US, UK and France also participate. 

The Times report that MODUK is considering (again) putting Brit Army training cadre in Western Ukraine to improve training.

The EU will give Ukraine 35 Billion Euros ($38 billion) as part of a planned 50 billion Euro loan package, backed up by frozen Russian assets.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Aug8 Sep9 Oct8 Oct10

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 78.02 71.74 77.30 78.19

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 75.03 68.37 73.59 74.73

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.08 2.20 2.74 2.65

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.38 5.67 5.93 5.99

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 86.98 90.75 96.83 96.60

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.78 40.89 41.22 41.26

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 72.14 78.83 73.30 70.29

ESPO 67.02      65 77 77

Sokol 70.82 66.23 72.10 69.97

Thoughts 

Autumn has arrived; Russia will undoubtedly continue to push, as they did all last winter. Rain and the approach of winter means all the obvious things, leaves off the trees - making concealment and movement more difficult, the grasses stop growing - more mud, horrible living conditions in the bunkers, etc. Rain also means low clouds and poor visibility for drones. So, on one hand harder to stay concealed (no leaves) and harder to move (more mud), but rain and sometimes fog (drones of limited value in selected areas at certain times) degrading drone surveillance at times.

All this is well known to both sides, and both sides have a good deal of experience not only in dealing with the mud, but also in living with misery. Staying active and out of the bunkers in some cases may be better than holed up in damp bunkers now loaded with rats seeking warmth and food.

All that said, there is every reason for the Russians to keep pushing, they are gaining ground in the east, and perhaps in the south, and they appear to be inflicting enough casualties on Ukraine that they’re using up newly trained soldiers as fast as they can create them, causing a steady stream of casualties and forcing the General Staff to expand at least a high percentage (if not all) new soldiers in keeping front-line units adequately manned.

For that reason alone the Russians will want to keep the pressure on.

On the other hand, Ukraine needs to get a breather so that they can stand up some new units, rotate them forward, rotate some of the older unit back.

A demonstration of how bad this is, is the story that came out of Vuhledar last week, that the 72nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade had been in Vuhledar, without relief, since the spring of 2022. Clearly they have had new personnel rotate in, and there were extended periods where there was only light combat taking place in the immediate vicinity, but the brigade had still been on the front line for 30 months or more, if the story is correct.

That means simply that that unit never had a chance to train as a unit. Rather, men were brought in, and they attempted to integrate them into the unit beside the veterans. The lesson of history is that that approach results in a decline over time of combat capability.

For that reason Ukraine needs an extended “lull.” For that very reason Russia will try to ensure there is none.

v/r pete