October 21st, 2024 USS Constitution launched, 1797

Battle of Trafalgar, 1805

Overall  

Ground Operations - More Russian gains 

Air Operations  - Large strike packages 3 nights in a row

Politics  - Another Suicide in Moscow…

- More Aid packages announced

Weather

Kharkiv

57 and sunny. Partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the low 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

55 and sunny, gusting near 20. Sunny to partly cloudy through the weekend. Daily lows in the upper 40s, daily highs in the upper 50s. Winds variable, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

56 and sunny. Partly cloudy though the weekend. Daily lows around 40, windchills in the 30s, may drop into the upper 20s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts, except Wednesday and Thursday, westerly, 10-15kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Russian forces contain to push eastward from the general area of Korenevo and have almost reached Malay Loknya (due north of Subzha, cutting off the top quarter of the Salient. Ukrainian forces will need to fish withdrawing to the south or risk being cut off. Russian forces also pressed north-west towards Plekhovo (south-east of Subzha) and may have taken that small town.

Ukrainian forces meanwhile had small but confirmed gains north of Subzha 

North of Kharkiv

There were no confirmed gains or losses by either side over the weekend.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along virtually the entire length of the line of contact and Russian sources claimed gains  south-east of Kupyansk as well as east of Pishchane, as they try to advance further into Kruhlyakivka, on the Oskil, having been confirmed to have reached the center of that town on the 17th.

Bakhmut 

Fighting continued north and noter-east of Bakhmut but there were no confirmed gains or losses by either side.

West of Bakhmut fighting continues north-east and south-east of Chasiv Yar and Russian forces are clearly operating west of the canal, just north of Chasiv Yar, but there were no new confirmed gains by Russian forces.

        Further south, Russian forces had confirmed gains north of Nelipivka (immediately south of Toretsk), appear to have occupied Nelipivka, and pushed deeper into Toretsk on the 18th and 20th.

Donetsk City

In the push on Pokrovsk Russian forces made small gains around Selydove, and appear to have pushed into the eastern edge of that town. Russian forces are also, reportedly pushing into Vyshneve, which is west of Selydove, which would give Russian forces positions on all sides of that town. Russian attacks contend elsewhere along the southern and western perimeter of the salient, but there were no confirmed Ginas.

Fighting continues west and southwest of Donetsk city but there were few confirmations of any gains in territory. Russian forces claim more gains in and around Maksymilyanivka (west of Heorhivka and Kurakhove, but this has not been confirmed.

Russian sources continue to claim Russian giant north-west of Vodyane and claims of control of Katerynivka; Russian forces are clearly in control of parts of the town but the full extent is not eat known. Claims were also made that Russian troops have advanced on Bohoyavlenka, north-west of Vodyane, but this has not been confirmed.

Russian giant were also noted further west near Zolota Nyva.

Southern Ukraine 

Fighting continues in the general area south of Orikhiv, and along the Dnepr, and Russian forces were confirmed to have picked up group north of Pryyutne (south-west of Velyka Novosilke) by the 19th.

Air Operations

During the night of 20-21 October Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space, targeting the power grid. The UAF claimed it shot down 31 drones and 13 dozens were “lost.”

There was no specific report on damages, however more than 100 towns reported being without electric power.

During the night of 19 - 20 October Russian forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistic missiles and 49 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space; the UAF claimed it shot down 31 drones and 13 drones were “lost” (defeated by EW). The two missiles struck power grid infrastructure near Kryvyi Rih.

Also on the night of the 19th, Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Lipetsk Airfield (a little over 200 miles south-south-east of Moscow) and a drone strike a defense industrial facility in Dzerzhinsk (200 miles east of Moscow).

The strike on Lipetsk targets ammo and fuel depots. Lipetsk is a thing airfield but tactical aircraft are begun staged there for operations in Ukraine. A fire was rerptoed at the base but there are no details on damage.

The strike in Dzerzhinsk targeted the Sverdlovsk plant that produces explosives and propellant. Commercial imagery showed an explosion at the plant yesterday. 

On the night of 19-20 October Russia forces launched 2 x Iskander ballistics missiles and 49 x Shahed drones. The UAF claimed it shot down 31 drones. There were no damage reports, however more than 100 towns reported blackouts.

On the night of 18-19 October Russian forces launched 6 x Kh-59/69 cruise missile and 98 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 2 cruise missiles and 42 drones, and that a further 46 dozens were “lost” (defeated by EW). There were anecdotal reports of damage to the power grid.

Also on the night of 18-19 October Ukrainian drones struck a “micro-electronic plant” in Bryansk (in western Russia, about 250 miles north-east of Kyiv).

Politics 

Former VP of Yukos Oil Mikhail Rogachev was found dead yesterday, an apparent suicide; he had “jumped” out a window from a building in Moscow. Yukos Oil was a major Russian oil company until broken up in 2007. 

Ukraine and Russia conducted a POW exchange on the 18th, each turning over 95 POWs. The exchange was brokered by the UAE. This brings the total returned Ukrainians to 3,767

Aid

The following aid and weapons transfers were announced:

The US - $400 mill in ammo and weapons, no specifics yet.

Germany: 

8 x Leopard tanks

20 x Marder IFVs

2 x Air Defense Radars

1 x IRIS-T SLS short range air defense system 

1 x IRIS-T SLM medium range air defense system

Canada: 64.8 Canadian dollars ($47 million) small arms, ammo, training

Netherlands: 271 million Euros ($295 million) to purchase artillery shells

Denmark: 2.4 billion Kroner ($348 million to purchase new equipment

NATO SecGen Rutte - NATO will work to provide the final 19.1 billion Euros ($21.5 billion) n aid by next June.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22 Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct18 Oct21 

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 72.65 74.47

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 68.82 70.77

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.27 2.32

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.90 5.73

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 96.11 96.20

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.24 41.33

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 67.57 66.16

ESPO       65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 67.71 66.43

Thoughts 

An article in Al Jazeera discusses dpesetio in the Ukrainian army and gives some interesting numbers, which, when pulled apart and reassembled, presents the following:

First, the number of desertions - these are actually the numbers of people charged with desertion, presumably the ones caught. Is this the total number of deserters or is that a larger number - that isn’t clear.

2022 - 9,000 charged, in 2023 - 22,000, and so far this year - 45,500  for a grand total of 76,500 deserters who have been brought up on charges. The report also mentions that 80,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed in action. As you will recall, the Minister of the Interior commented several weeks ago that, as of August some 55,000 were missing. It is probable that these numbers are the low end of spread.

So, a rough estimate of wounded is 4 times the KIA numbers, particularly if you have what is assumed to be a low count on KIAs, so 80,000 KIA, 320,000 WIA, 55,000 Missing (most of whom the Minister said they assume are dead) and 76,500 deserters = 531,500 killed, wounded, missing or deserted. The figure used for the size of the army is 1,300,000, though that number is probably including some of the above, what works out to 41% of the army. 

If we assume the 1.3 million figure counts only those now serving in the army and does not count casualties, that would yield a total number for those who have served, including deserters of 1,830,000, which would still represent 29% of the army.

It is of noted that Mediazone, a Russian opposition media company, known for having fairly accurate numbers, reports that since the start of the war Russian courts have charged 6,400 men with desertion.

v/r pete