October 18th, 2024 Next Report on Monday

Overall  

Ground Operations - More Russian gains 

Air Operations  - Large strike packages 3 nights in a row

Politics  - Aid packages announced

- Poll on who wants to return 

Weather

Kharkiv

43 and cloudy. Rain showers tonight and into tomorrow. Cloudy until Monday morning, then clearing. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds northerly, 5-10kts.

Melitopol

45 and cloudy, gusting over 20. Cloudy to partly cloudy for the next 5 days. Daily lows in the upper 30s, daily highs in the 50s. Winds northerly, 10-15kts.

Kyiv

42 and mostly clear. Partly cloudy though next week. Daily lows in the 30s, mornings may occasionally dip below freezing, daily highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds variable, 5-10kts.

Ground Operations 

Kursk Salient

Russian forces made confirmed gains on the west side of the salient, to the south-east of Korenevo, and continue to slowly pinch the salient. Reporting suggests both sides are having some trouble moving due to mud, and general road conditions.

North of Kharki

Fighting continues around Vovchansk and Starytsya but there were no confirmed gains or losses of terrain.

North of the Donets River

Fighting continued along the length of the line of contact but here were no confirmed gains.

However, west of Pishchane the Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian SOF had cleared Kruhliakivka of Russian troops; 2 days ago they were denying there were Russian troops in the town. Meanwhile, Russian troops are 2 miles north in Kolisnykivka and the Russian line appears to parallel the Oskil, a bit more than a mile out; all of which supports earlier reporting that the Russians are squeezing hard to get to the river, and are making some gains in that regard.

Bakhmut

Fighting continues north and northeast of Bakhmut but neither side had any confirmed gains in the last 2 days.

In the general area of Chasiv Yar Russian forces gained ground to the south-east - due east of Stupochky where Russian forces appeared to gain full control of #9 coal mine, about 2 miles east of Stupochsky

Coal mines and slag piles have become natural strong points in the fighting along the eastern front; taking control of a mine gives a local tactical advantage at that point.

In Toretsk, west of Horlivka, the see-saw continues, with Ukrainian forces pushing back into the center of Toretsk while Russian forces gained ground just south of Toretsk, and pushed westward in Shcherbynivka.  

Donetsk City

Russian forces continue to gain ground south-east of Pokrovsk, while Ukrainian forces had some gains just east of Pokrovsk. 

Russian forces had confirmed gains in Lysivka (just southeast of Pokrovsk and in the vicinity of Novodmytrivka (immediately south-east of Lysivka). Pro Ukrainian blogs show Russian forces beginning to squeeze Selydove, pressing in from the north, south, and east. Russian forces also continue to operate on both sides of E50 roadway up to a point just 3 miles south of Pokrovsk. 

At the same time Ukrainian forces regained small amounts of near Mykolaivka, due east of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces continue to press westward and the Russian line now runs from the general area of Lysivka, southward to the east end of the Vovcha River Reservoir, with the exception of Selydove, where is bends around to the east. The “pocket” further east has essentially been cleared after most Ukrainian forces managed to withdraw last week.

East of the Vovcha River Reservoir Russian forces continue to gain ground into Maksymilyanivka and now probably control all of it, and the Russians also continue efforts to gain full control of Kurakhivka. In most cases, each of these little towns continues to have pockets of Ukrainian troops and they manage to continue fighting long after it would seem possible; but the Russians still control the terrain.

Further south, Russian forces continue to press north-west from Vodyane and Katerynivka, but there were no confirmed gains in the last several days.

Southern Ukraine 

Russian forces remain active in probes across a broad area south of Orikhiv, but there were no confirmed changes to the front lines.

Fighting continued across southern Ukraine, and Russian and Ukrainian SOF were active along the River, with the Russians claiming to have driven off a Ukrainian SOF raid on Kinburn spit. Russian SOF are reportedly active on several of the islands at the mouth of the Dnepr.

Air Operations

During the night of the 17th - 18th of October Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59 cruise missile and 1 x Kh-95, and 136 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air spaces.

There was no report yet as to UAF engagements or damage to infrastructure.

On the night of the 16th Russian forces launched at least 1 x Kh-59 cruise missiles and 56 x Shahed drones in Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 22 drones and 27 other drones had “gotten lost”” (EW); 2 drones flew into Belarus, and 5 drones struck struck energy infrastructure.

On the night of October 15-16 Russian forces launched an unknown number of S-300 ballistic missiles 1 x Kh-59 cruise missile and 136 x Shahed drones into Ukrainian air space. The UAF claimed it shot down 68 drones, and reported that 64 drones had “gotten lost” (taken down by EW), 2 drones had return to Russia, and 2 had hit targets but did not specify where. Later, the mayor of Ternopil rerooted that an industrial facility had been hit by a drone.

The Mykholaiv government reported an S-300 missile struck in Ochakiv.

Politics and Diplomacy

President Biden announced another military assistance package to Ukraine, valued at $425 million, with DOD commenting that it would include:  additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), RIM-7 missiles and air defense support, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, HIMARS munitions, 155MM and 105MM howitzer ammo, various Anti-Vehicle, anti armor weapons (TOW, Javelin, AT-4).

This is the 67th military assistance package provided by the US.

Denmark will provide 2.4 billion krona ($349 million) military assistance package to Ukraine, halogen to fund more air defense systems for Ukraine. This is Denmark’s 21st aid package.

Canada will provide 64.8 million Canadian dollar package ($47 million) to Ukraine, to include a small arms and ammo package, as well as protective gear.

European Pravda conducted a poll of Ukrainians refugees in Europe and asked them if they wish to return to Ukraine.

35% - when it is safe

25% - do not wish to return

25% - undecided 

11% - have returned or are returning 

4% - returning in the near future

Shortly after the war began a similar poll found that

60%  - wanted to return as soon as possible

10% - did not wish to return

A senior member of the Biden Administration (not further identified) commented that there is no consensus among NATO states as to whether Ukraine should be offered membership.

"There is a discussion among NATO allies about an invitation. There is currently no consensus on whether to offer Ukraine an invitation. But, as you know, at the NATO summit just a few months ago - in July, in the middle of July - all 32 allies confirmed that Ukraine is on the irreversible path to membership. So, the question is how to encourage this path and how to reach a consensus on the next steps.”

At the same time, NATO Secretary General Rutte commented that:

“Ukraine will be a member of NATO, there is no doubt about and until that happens we will make sure that Ukraine has everything it needs to prevail.”

The ROK National Intelligence Service (NIS) has revised its estimates of North Korean troop strength committed to Russia, saying that there are currently 1,500 in Russia to support the war with Ukraine, and that the total could grow to 12,000. The bulk of the 1500 are already in Russia’s Far East, receiving training.

LTGEN Budanov, Ukraine’s Director of Military Intelligence, said the Koreans will be ready to fight in Ukraine on November 1st.

The ROK NIS had no estimate as to when the NK element would be ready to fight.

Economic Reporting

Feb 22   Mar 7   Jun10-22Jun8-23 Jun7 Jul9 Sep9 Oct8 Oct16 Oct18

Brent      94.71      119.50 120.90    75.58      80.06 85.19 71.74 77.30 74.25 72.65

WTI     92.10      123.80 119.50  71.29      75.81 81.73 68.37 73.59 70.58 68.82

NG       3.97       4.45     8.41      2.15      2.82 2.38 2.20 2.74 2.49 2.27

Wheat     8.52       12.94    10.71    6.17       6.40 5.71 5.67 5.93 5.80 5.90

Ruble     85         145.70  58.48     82.59      88.77 88.18 90.75 96.83 97.46 96.11

Hryvnia Pre Oct 2023 fixed at 36.4 40.89 41.22 41.23 41.24

Urals 56.56    67.61 67.61 78.83 73.30 66.81 67.57

ESPO       65 77 77 77

Sokol 66.23 72.10 67.86 67.71

The World Bank revised its estimate of Ukraine GDP growth for 2025 from 6.5% to 2%. The estimate for 2024 remains at 3..2%

Thoughts 

Two thoughts:

President Zelenskyy spoke only of conventional weapons but a Bild reported noted that “an unnamed Ukrainian official” said that Ukraine could “develop nuclear weapons in a “matter of weeks” to use against Russia.”

President Putin responded in short order:

”This is another provocation. It is not difficult to create nuclear weapons in the modern world. I don't know if Ukraine is capable of doing it now; it's not so easy for Ukraine today. But, in general, there are no great difficulties here… such a threat will be adequately perceived; Russia will not allow it under any circumstance. Any step in this direction will be met with a corresponding reaction."

The second though is the poll, especially when compared to the data shortly after the war started, when 60% wanted to return as soon as possible. Now, 85% either do not with to return, or will return only when it is safe - the undecided almost assuredly falling into one of those two categories.

As with the figure discussed briefly yesterday (100,000 deserters out of 1.3 million) this all speaks to a morale problem that is seriously divergent from the image presented in the propaganda, a moral problem that extends far beyond those who are fighting and reaches deeply into the citizenry.

v/r pete